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redrumloa

redrumloa

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http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-04-29-voa14.cfm

WHO: Getting closer to a pandemic

The World Health Organization's Gregory Hartl issued this warning: "We are a significant step closer to a pandemic. Phase four again is a kind of a turning point phase," Hartl said.

Phase four means the flu can pass from one person to another. Rear Admiral Anne Schuchat from the Centers for Disease Control told a U.S. Senate hearing the situation is not likely to get better soon. "I think we really need to be prepared for a worsening of the situation," he stated.
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I'm only confused on one thing. I thought we already died from bird flu a few years back :?:
 
Calling deadly flu pandemics is like calling earthquakes on a fault. You know that they are going to happen sooner or later but it's hard to tell if any given tremor is a precursor to the big one or just another little tremor.

To be fair to the disease professionals, they have been quite clear and measured. The media, on the other hand, well - they do like to sensationalize.
 
We are all going to die, but not from swine flu. In fact, if you can hang on to your life for another two months or so, they'll probably have a vaccine by then (assuming it doesn't morph faster then other flu viruses). And if not, no biggie, it seems most people will be able to survive it, it's just that the very old and very young may have a hard time. Most healthy adults would just feel like crap for a bit and then move on. the earliest case of Swine Flu in Mexico was a kid, and he survived, so it's not likely to kill everyone even in poor countries. That's my take on this. H5N1 would have been far more destructive if it spread like this thing does.
 
My problem is nonsense like this.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090429/ts_nm/us_flu
WHO confirms pandemic threat raised to 5 out of 6
GENEVA (Reuters) – World Health Organization director-general Dr. Margaret Chan raised the pandemic threat awareness level to 5 out of 6 on Wednesday, meaning the world is at imminent risk of a pandemic from H1N1 swine flu.

"I have decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 4 to phase 5," Chan told a news briefing.
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5 out of 6 :?:
 
Wonder what that really means though. Is it likely that this virus will spread throughout the planet? Most likely. Will it kill off millions? Probably not, but flu viruses do mutate quickly and it could become deadlier. I believe the Spanish Flu started off a lot milder before it became more deadly. That was the fear with H5N1, that it would mutate in such a way to make it spread faster. It does make sense to limit exposure, and in Mexico they're closing schools and forcing restaurants to offer take out only. Makes sense for Mexico. For the rest of us, not traveling to Mexico is probably a real good idea, but I'm not planning on asking my sis for her surgical masks.
 
Glaucus said:
Wonder what that really means though. Is it likely that this virus will spread throughout the planet? Most likely. Will it kill off millions? Probably not, but flu viruses do mutate quickly and it could become deadlier. I believe the Spanish Flu started off a lot milder before it became more deadly.
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The 1918-1919 Spanish Flu infected 50% of population, with a 1% mortality

A typical flu infects 10-20% of the population, with a .008% mortality.

The Spanish flu H1N1 virus struck hardest among the young and healthy, those with the strongest immune system. Older people who had the Russian flu of 1889 had developed a partial immunity to the virus. Deaths in the 20-45 age group were due to pneumonia caused by a combination of the influenza virus and a cytokine storm host response (a immune reaction consisting of a positive feedback loop between cytokines and immune cells) with no secondary bacterial infections involved.

Typically 36,000 die from the flu each year in the US, from pneumonia and a secondary bacterial infection.
 
first suspected case here at an elementary school in Madison.
 
Wayne said:
first suspected case here at an elementary school in Madison.
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Yep, two probable cases in Madison and now they are reporting a "highly likely" in southern Tennessee (to be confirmed within 24 hours). No surprise really. With all the international travel the Huntsville area has (business and family) it was just a question of when.

Regards,
Ltstanfo
 
metalman said:
The 1918-1919 Spanish Flu infected 50% of population, with a 1% mortality
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That's an interesting stat. Also interesting is that H5N1 has had a 60% mortality rate. Swine flu might be higher then 1% as well. I also wonder how accurate the Spanish flu stats are considering level 4 containment labs didn't exist back then.
 
Glaucus said:
metalman said:
The 1918-1919 Spanish Flu infected 50% of population, with a 1% mortality
Click to expand...
That's an interesting stat. Also interesting is that H5N1 has had a 60% mortality rate. Swine flu might be higher then 1% as well. I also wonder how accurate the Spanish flu stats are considering level 4 containment labs didn't exist back then.
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The H5, H7 or H9 avian flu virus so far are transmitted only by direct bird and human contact, so the infection rate is very very low, the mortality is 50 to 70% because humans have no defense against them. Avian flu is more difficult for humans to spread because the avian virus targets receptors in the lungs of humans and not in the nose and throat.

The Spanish flu stats are probably accurate considering it infected the half the world's population killing an estimated 50 million people.
 
Glaucus said:
metalman said:
The 1918-1919 Spanish Flu infected 50% of population, with a 1% mortality
Click to expand...
That's an interesting stat. Also interesting is that H5N1 has had a 60% mortality rate. Swine flu might be higher then 1% as well. I also wonder how accurate the Spanish flu stats are considering level 4 containment labs didn't exist back then.
Click to expand...
I've seen figures from 50M to 100M dead once the infection was over. Being they didn't have the diagnosis abilities we have now certainly some non-flu is going to be lumped in there. And accuracy wouldn't seem to be high.

Projected to today's population we'd have 350M dead. Today with better diagnosis and treatments (no anti-virals 100 yeas ago) I'd not expect that sort of death, at least for the 1st world nations.

As for what the Swine Flu has that's a good question. It has about a 1% rate right now considering deaths vs diagnosis. It seems, however, this flu is very mild and certainly in the US, and for sure Mexico, there are cases undiagnosed. Right now it seems that 1% might be an over predictions.

Virus do mutate. Only time will tell if the mutations make this disease more or less deadly.
 
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