American military plans to strike Iran were "ready" and the option was "fully available"

[robert l. bentham]

"I think they have made a decision to attack," said one senior Israeli figure with close ties to the leadership. "It is going to happen. The window of opportunity is before the U.S. presidential election in November. This way they will bounce the Americans into supporting them."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/17/us-israel-iran-idUSBRE84G0UC20120517

dirty stinking israeli scumbags...

 

[Glaucus]

Clearly, Israel's objective is to escalate the conflict. They know a simple air strike would not be enough to permanently end Iran's nuclear ambitions. But they'd need to escalate all the way to occupation to permanently end Iran's nuclear program. That's a serious problem.

On top of that, they'd have to also deal with a possible land war with their closer neighbors.

If I were to bet, I'd say there won't be any attack soon.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Old Sack-of-willies (or whatever his name is) of ex-Soviet Georgia thought he could get the Americans to join his fight against Russia if he started it. He was wrong.

Israel is a different beast, of course. Israel has more members of the US government than Georgia had but still the calculation is tricky.

Obama is not such a fan of the State of David, despite his pandering words to AIPAC. He won't be naturally inclined to rush right in, at least, not until he had extracted serious concessions from them for the offer to save their ass. Israel is a thorn in his side (and the side of the US but so many still don't see it). Letting them fall over would be good for their humility and make them much more manageable.

Of course, it depends on what Iran does in response. If they play it moderately cool, just shooting down what comes over or crosses the border rather than striking back into Israel then it would be easier for the President to sit back. However, he could ask the Congress for the permission to go to war and then the Republicans would be forced to give him another term. Obama would be the President who is defending Israel and the republicans couldn't vote against that without wiping themselves out so it wouldn't surprise me if Republican representatives are talking to Israel asking them to wait until AFTER the election. Israel seems not to believe that they could win it so that would put Israel in an even weaker position with respect to Obama.

Then we also have an unfriendly Egypt in the area. A weakened Iran would mean that Egypt has no use for Israel any more as a counter weight against Persia. The Saudi royal family are basically Americans so they will play along with the US. Putin has opinions on the matter too and there are so many proxy armies in the region you could have a nice little war happening without any countries actually involved.

 

[Glaucus]

Old Sack-of-willies (or whatever his name is) of ex-Soviet Georgia thought he could get the Americans to join his fight against Russia if he started it. He was wrong.

That's just the RT.com in you talking. Russia started that war because they knew the Americans would do nothing.

Israel is a different beast, of course. Israel has more members of the US government than Georgia had but still the calculation is tricky.

True, but the only one that counts in this case is NOT in their pocket.

Of course, it depends on what Iran does in response. If they play it moderately cool, just shooting down what comes over or crosses the border rather than striking back into Israel then it would be easier for the President to sit back.

That would be wise, but the Iranians kinda painted themselves into a corner by making a long list of promises of what they'll do in the event of an attack. Which is kinda dumb as it's likely to encourage Israel to attack (remember, Israel WANTS escalation).

However, he could ask the Congress for the permission to go to war and then the Republicans would be forced to give him another term.

Republicans might give him a green light, but I'm pretty certain that won't stop them from doing all they can to take his job. They only rally around the president when he's a Republican.

Obama would be the President who is defending Israel and the republicans couldn't vote against that without wiping themselves out so it wouldn't surprise me if Republican representatives are talking to Israel asking them to wait until AFTER the election.

Maybe, maybe not. An attack on Iran may not be that popular right now. And an attack may be rather ugly. It's a huge gamble either way. If I was Republican I'd rather it happen before and let it turn into Obama's Katrina moment.

Israel seems not to believe that they could win it so that would put Israel in an even weaker position with respect to Obama.

They can't win it on their own and they know it. Unless they go nuclear right off the hop.

 

[cecilia]

and people wonder why i hate the Israeli gov.

that douchebag should shut up

 

[Robert]

That's just the RT.com in you talking. Russia started that war because they knew the Americans would do nothing.

I've never been convinced of that.

As an almost irrelevant aside, my class has students from everywhere. During a presentation the other week (about quantum computing or something) , one of the Israeli students made a comment about Russia invading Georgia, only to be rudely interrupted by one of the Russian students, refuting it. This was followed by a brief, awkward silence then a fair bit of laughter.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Seems that Obama has Congressional approval for war with Iran - at least from the House. The Senate won't want to be left out. The house is also ready to shovel as much money and weapons as necessary to to Israel to help get it on. They may have to close schools and cut pensions to do it, but that's what austerity is all about.