Rumors are an AMD Playstation and a PowerPC Xbox.
Next XBox rumors are all over the map. Personally, I think they have a few different mock-ups and are watching when they need to get the box on the market before they make the decision which one to pull the trigger on.
Also, in addition to the next conventional console, they may make an XBox Live box that is more market-focused than the full console. More like a cut down media box for the Netflix, Hulu, Zune, Arcade-style games, and other services currently offered through the XBox Live. So the specs for that potential machine get mixed into the talks, as well.
I suspect that the lower quality games of phones and tablets are making a dent in gaming sales. I wouldn't be too surprised to see consoles next gen have worse sales than this gen because of it. For example - the iPod increased lower quality music sales and the higher quality CD and Record sales were impacted because of it. It seems people value convenience over quality.
While you may be correct, I don't think it will be nearly that dramatic a shift. The time people spend playing with an iPhone or Android is a very different activity from sitting down to play a game of Madden, Call of Duty, or Skyrim. The X360 and PS3 are already squarely planted in the enthusiast market.
CDs were not at all an enthusiast market. Very few of the total CD sales were to music enthusiasts who sat down and made an activity of listening to them. So, when something easier came along, the masses went there. But those few hardcore enthusiasts are the ones still buying CDs and records.
In this case, the X360 and PS3 are already down to primarily enthusiasts. I don't expect them to drop much more. Though, it could well be that Microsoft is thinking like you, which is why they're floating the idea of the XBox Live box.
-----------
Back around to x86 on a phone. I'm not sure I've developed an opinion, yet. On one hand, having a more similar architecture from phone to tablet to notebook to workstation to server makes sense. You bring power savings from the bottom up, and performance from the top down. A nice neat little spectrum. Compilers could also be more optimized if dealing with fewer targets. But, really... I don't know if any of that matters much. So long as there is at least some competition between manufacturers and fabs, I think we'll continue to see performance progress, regardless of architecture choices.