Glasgow climate change report.

[Robert]

Some of you may or may not remember me whining on Amiga.org that the part of the world I live in, the city of Glasgow, in the country of Scotland, had seen some pretty dramatic changes in winter climate.
Specifically, I referred to the fact that throughout my life (38 years now) Glasgow always had a little bit of snow. Not a lot but enough that it would lie on the ground for a day or two. Then I bought a snowboard. I think that was in January 2002. And from that moment on we never had any snow to speak of.

I blamed this on climate change and believed I would never see decent snow again.

Hands up - I was wrong.

The situation continued until winter 2008/09. That year we finally got a big enough dump of snow that i could take my snowboard up to the local park and have a symbolic slide down a gentle incline. It stayed white-ish for a couple of weeks.

I was convinced this was a one off. Not so.

The following year (last year, 2009/10) we had what I can only describe as a proper winter. Beginning in January we had a large dump of snow, accompanied by persistent, freezing temperatures. At the age of 37 , this was the first "proper" winter I had ever seen in Glasgow. It lasted until March. Completely unprecedented in my lifetime.

Again, I though it must be a one off.

Towards the end of this November we had our first snowfall of the winter. Now, to those of you who are unfamiliar with the Glasgow climate, (which is probably just about every last one of you :-D) the idea that snow could fall at the end of November and still be lying on the ground almost three weeks later, might not seem particularly remarkable. However, this is completely unheard of.

In short, the South-West coast of Scotland now appears to be experiencing a taste of the kind of "proper" winters that the rest of Europe and Canada get.

And for the last three years it has become progressively better or worse, depending on your outlook. I personally like it. I'm sort of hoping the "proper" summers are in the post. ;-)

So, yeah, climate change. It's happening alright but it's not following any predictable pattern in my local area.

Summary:
First 30 years of my life - little bits of snow, so predictable you could set your watch by it.
Next five years - no snow of any consequence and beginning to think it was a thing of the past.
Last 2.5 years - Seriously freezing, brass-monkey, snow-clad, progressively more intense, proper winter.

So there you go. What to make of that?

 

[redrumloa]

Good stuff, thanks for sharing. What do I make of it all? We would be foolish to claim to fully understand mother nature at this point, especially with what I see is deeply flawed data being used. In South Florida we went decades without being hit directly by a hurricane, and then was Hurricane Andrew in 1992 with was a terrible, historic storm. It happened mid-late in the hurricane season yet was the first named storm of the year. We went another 12 years without a direct hit, then 2004 and 2005 happened with 8 hurricanes hitting in those 2 seasons including Katrina and Wilma in 2005. After the 2005 season we were told it was all caused by global warming and we should expect to see 2004/2005-like seasons every year, only getting worse. South Florida has not been hit in 5 years and counting...

I'm no expert, but it seems clear to me we have to follow the money. There has been more evidence of global cooling than of global warming, which is probably why they silently changed from the term "global warming" to "climate change". Now no matter what happens they can claim it is proof of change. Weather cycles last far, far longer than 100 years.

Did you get a good speed going on your snowboard?

 

[Robert]

There has been more evidence of global cooling than of global warming, which is probably why they silently changed from the term "global warming" to "climate change".

I'd disagree here. As far as I can tell, the global temperature trend is still heading up the way.

Now no matter what happens they can claim it is proof of change. Weather cycles last far, far longer than 100 years.

As I said, our winter climate was pretty consistent for 30 years of my own experience. The last eight years have seen some erratic extremes, in both directions. My feeling is that my local weather system is definitely changing.

However, I hear what you're saying about cycles and you may well be right. All I'm reporting here is personal experience.

Did you get a good speed going on your snowboard?

Well, I haven't been on it this year yet - no time, what with the combination of studying and working part-time.

The year that I took the snowboard up the park? It was, as I said, symbolic more than anything else.
A couple of slides down a hill. Every run left a track of green grass behind me. Not really snowboarding as we know it.

Having said that, if things keep going the way they are this winter, we could have far more local snow.

 

[cecilia]

Climate Change is about Extremes in weather.

and we can all list a bunch of examples.

 

[metalman]

Has Charles Dickens shaped our perception of climate change?

 

[Robert]

Temperature above zero degrees C for the first time in almost a fortnight.

To give an indication of how unprepared for this kind of weather Glasgow is, my college classes have been canceled for nearly two weeks and, more surprisingly, the city-centre office I work in has been forced to close repeatedly as transport was practically impossible.

Today things are finally moving again, although college is still shut.

 

[faethor]

There has been more evidence of global cooling than of global warming, which is probably why they silently changed from the term "global warming" to "climate change". Now no matter what happens they can claim it is proof of change.

Here's a Global Cooling paper that was worked on for a few years and finally published in 2008. It predicted that 2000-2010 would be .06C cooler. We're 1 month short of that prediction period and what do we see for the Global Cooling prediction? HadCRUT indicates a .08C warmer decade and NASA a .11C warmer decade.

They also predicted a 2005-2015 to be and even cooler decade. Things look good in 2008 we saw a much colder year. Looking at NASA 2005 was hotter than 1998 making the hottest ever, 2009 was the 2nd hottest ever, 2006/2007 again record years. Recently the 2010 data until Oct analysis ever came out and it's looking to be in the top 3. With a cool Dec it might be #3 now instead of fighting for #1.

Evidence for Global Cooling? Dead this decade.

I see the reason to change 'Global Warming' to 'Climate Change' is to stop the loonies who see a week of cool temps in Flordia and cry 'the sky is falling' cuz it's Cooling.

 

[metalman]

UK trends to Coldest December in 100 yrs

so this week has been the second coldest opening week to December in the UK since CET records began in 1659.

The UK Met Office estimates the temperature anomaly (with respect to the end of the 19th century) for 2010 so far as 0.756 deg C, projected to be either the warmest or in the top three warmest years since the instrumental global temperature records began 150 years ago.

WHAT happened to warmest year on Record??

 

[redrumloa]

stop the loonies who see a week of cool temps in Flordia and cry 'the sky is falling' cuz it's Cooling.

Who said the sky is falling? Last year is was frozen iguanas. So far this year it is helicopters that are falling.

Three helicopters crash in Florida protecting frost-bitten crops
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... crops.html

Rick Roth said: 'This time of year it's not supposed to freeze. Very rarely does it freeze before Christmas'.
He said his crops were just ten days away from harvest but he will now have to bulldoze the 36 acres of land and plant sugarcane instead.

 

[ilwrath]

To give an indication of how unprepared for this kind of weather Glasgow is, my college classes have been canceled for nearly two weeks and, more surprisingly, the city-centre office I work in has been forced to close repeatedly as transport was practically impossible.

Seriously? They shut college for 2 weeks for it being a few degrees under freezing? Couldn't you guys just find a few light jackets lying around somewhere? I guess I didn't realize Glasgow typically got such mild weather.

It's so hard to figure out what is going on climate-wise. We all fall back to anecdotes, and they are so faulty. As a kid, I remember seeing ice fishing shanties out on the Trenton Channel of the Detroit River. They'd be there for a couple months. In the past 15 years, I haven't seen enough ice that I'd want to even step on it, let alone put out a bunch of badly nailed together 2x4's and plywood. But is that due to climate or river changes? Are the two related? Water levels have shifted several times and algae/seaweed content has changed greatly, as well. Now, part of the algae/seaweed is certainly due to the river being continually cleaner and safer. For god sakes, when I was a baby, the Rouge (a tributary) caught fire -- today it's actually been rated safe to swim in various areas.

Collecting data is hard. We need more than sets of localized temperatures that may or may not be accurate. That method is like trying to understand tides by taking daily depth readings of the ocean. You might figure it out someday, but it's really not the best way to go.

Understanding the carbon cycle is where the research needs to be heading. Of course, instead of funding hard research toward that, we waste billions and billions of dollars fighting over anecdotes, incomplete data, and arbitrary political views.

 

[faethor]

Collecting data is hard. We need more than sets of localized temperatures that may or may not be accurate. That method is like trying to understand tides by taking daily depth readings of the ocean. You might figure it out someday, but it's really not the best way to go.

Actually it's not too hard. Weather stations are run around the world. More often than not they are open to access their data. This is where NASA, HadCRUT, and other climatological organizations get their data. Now having a big server to store and process is a bit expensive. Though cloud prices are coming down.

 

[Fade]

Faethor said
Actually it's not too hard. Weather stations are run around the world. More often than not they are open to access their data. This is where NASA, HadCRUT, and other climatological organizations get their data.
------------------------------------------------

Hey Faethor, take a look at your own city. Couldn't they find just a little more concrete and jet engine exhaust?

And here is one for our resident "the sky is falling" from Scotland. Maybe just one more heat sink building and it would be perfect. Then absolutely no heat will be allowed to be blown away by the wind.

Take a look at some other stations across the US

From Australia

Had to save this one for last, it is my favorite.

 

[faethor]

Hey Faethor, take a look at your own city. Couldn't they find just a little more concrete and jet engine exhaust?

Denialists acts like these are nothing new. There's no proof built that these stations are built to get the hottest temps in the area. At one time I lived in Minneapolis and on our apartment's deck it was always 2-3 degrees hotter than the official airport temp. Clearly they put the temps in the wrong place. The station built there when the airport was about 50 years go. Before this whole 'global warming' hoopla existed. MN has had temperature measures for about 140 years. Back in the 1880s the station was on top of one of the sky scrapers. Next you're going to tell us that this was done to build the warmest temps to 'fix' the Global Warming science .

Charges of 'bad' stations are fair enough postulate. This is science and science demands that postulates can't be accepted as true until they are proven true with repeatable experimentation. What we see happening is Denialist Fade makes a charge, claims this proves all the other science is false and walks away.

What do we have to show your unstated major assumption that all weather stations are faulted to the hotside and therefore invalid. Well there are weather balloons which are in an upward trend. There's satellite data also in clear upward trend. There's ocean temperatures they're up too. Not to mention the physical indicators around the globe.

So besides pretty pictures and no real data from Fade we do have other means to answer this question too. ALL of them indicate we're in a warming condition.

Your thought that these 'pictures' prove Climatologists are wrong is busted.

EDIT: Here's another study for you to review. They decided OK all those stations are wrong then let's take them out. The result... Appears to me within the statistical margin of error. Another study I read looked at the Urban Heat Island effect and it turned out that about 48% of the stations are in parks in the city which resulted in cooler temps then the nearby country measurements. (Though I haven't found it to cite it directly. I've given enough time to this overall, and far more data then you provided with your unproven charge, that the charge that these stations make the records unreliable is bunk.)

 

[metalman]

[youtube:2yppefrw]g-F8EO3qOVk[/youtube:2yppefrw]

 

[Robert]

[youtube:39uyyup5]g-F8EO3qOVk[/youtube:39uyyup5]

Hahaha.... brilliant!
"you have until September to learn the difference between CLIMATE and WEATHER.."

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

@Robert

I heard you guys were supposed to get 3 feet of snow soon. Did it happen yet?

 

[redrumloa]

Hahaha.... brilliant!
"you have until September to learn the difference between CLIMATE and WEATHER.."

Or be cooling off in a prison cell!

 

[metalman]

Hahaha.... brilliant!
"you have until September to learn the difference between CLIMATE and WEATHER.."

Or be cooling off in a prison cell!

[youtube:qal0y33x]sE3g0i2rz4w[/youtube:qal0y33x]

 

[Robert]

@Robert

I heard you guys were supposed to get 3 feet of snow soon. Did it happen yet?

Not in Glasgow. We got about half an inch this morning.

 

[metalman]

Memories from the past

UK: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past