Greeks to decide their own fate

Glaucus

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Papandreou calls for referendum on EU debt deal

Prime Minister George Papandreou has stated his intention to hold a referendum on last week's agreement in Brussels for Greece's bondholders to accept a 50 percent haircut and the country to receive some 130 billion euros in loans from its eurozone partners.
This will either be the most brilliant thing he'll ever do, or the greatest disaster for Greece (and along with it, the Eurozone as well).
 
I hope they say no just like in Iceland. The Euro is broken from birth and anyone who placed a bet on Greece has clearly lost. They should lose with dignity and kiss that money (which never really existed) good-bye.

Only by letting losers pay the cost of stupid bets will we stop stupid bets being made. A few hundred knobs at the top of the pile cannot be allowed to pretend that the loans they took out had the consent of all the people. This is why Africa looks the way it does - and it's not right.
 
Ironically, October 28 is known as "OXI Day" (pronounced as Ohi, or OH-hee in English, basically the X translates to H). OXI means "NO". And "OXI" was the answer PM Metaxas gave to Mussolini's ultimatum and thus entered Greece into WW2. And OXI just might be the ultimate answer given to in this referendum as well.

Well, those politicians did lie about Greece's financial status before they got those loans. The politicians are clearly to blame there and they should be thrown in jail. But Greece defaulting on such a huge debt isn't gonna fix that. Greece is a victim of itself, shifting the blame anywhere will not do Greece any good. And to be honest, Greece would probably be in the same situation even without the Euro, except no one would care if they were on their own.

As for the Euro, I would prefer they move in the other direction. Unifying fiscal policy would be a better idea. Otherwise, those little nations will be divided and conquered by foreign powers and Europe will be another great war zone one day.
 
As for the Euro, I would prefer they move in the other direction. Unifying fiscal policy would be a better idea.
There is still plenty wrong with the union, for example, the lack of political representation. How can all the people of Europe be beholden to the laws created by the European Parliament when people still have so little say or idea what it does. People are still voting for their own governments and expecting their own governments to run things but that is less and less the case.
Otherwise, those little nations will be divided and conquered by foreign powers and Europe will be another great war zone one day.
They are a war zone. The US/UK attacked the Euro through Goldman Sachs in Greece and some other places. It is probably as much currency war as financial opportunity. Personally, when a nation is such a basket case as Greece the thing to do is write them off. Zero out all the old loans and don't make any new ones. (The current bailout is a 50% haircut but Greece has to take a new loan).

The problem with that approach is that Greece will be much better off at 100% haircut and no new loans because if there are no loans to repay then outsiders can't tell Greece what to do.
 
The US/UK attacked the Euro through Goldman Sachs in Greece and some other places.
I won't argue that the US/UK are friends of the Euro, but the Goldman Sachs affair should be firmly placed on Greek shoulders. They (PASOK as the time, under PM Simitis) brought in Goldman Sachs specifically to get around the Eurozone's Maastricht criteria. They got what they wanted.

The problem with that approach is that Greece will be much better off at 100% haircut and no new loans because if there are no loans to repay then outsiders can't tell Greece what to do.
Well, everyone would be better off with their debts obliterated overnight. But in this case there are consequences. The idea that Greeks can nuke their debts and then just live their lives as if everything is normal is incompatible with reality. Most of the debt is owned by Greek banks, which means the Greek financial sector will be wiped out completely. Only the IMF could help them then, and what will that require? There are many very big problems they will face and they would face them alone and surrounded by enemies. Greeks will be voting on more then just to simply continue living within an imperfect union.

So far the best way to sum up the reaction to the referendum is shock. Current PASOK MPs are essentially asking for Papandreou to resign, at least one has quit the party narrowing the majority down to two seats. Of course Germany and France must be livid (Greeks can only hope Germans are never allowed a referendum on this as well). Greek opposition seems geared up to do all it can to force an election (and after that, no idea). But there's still a chance the Greek voters will choose yes. If that's the case, than history will show this to be the most brilliant move possible - a high stakes gamble that will fit in nicely in the Greek history books. A yes vote is perhaps the only way to save the nation from itself. It forces the decision on the people and it may make the riots go away - key to any recovery as riots cause real problems when your economy is so tourism reliant. But it would also signal a change in mentality - people who once rioted will stop and consider their options and ultimately decide what's the best (or least bad of the worst options imaginable). In no way can anyone say that this deal is GOOD for Greece. But I can say it is a better alternative than to allow a complete collapse.

But more importantly, the final details have yet to be made and are still not public. Papandreou may have just bought himself the most powerful bargaining chip - give us terms that the people can accept because the people will decide. Papandreou made his high risk move, now it's up to the EU to come up with something that can not only save the Eurozone but be accepted by the people. And as much as Greeks don't want this, there really is a good chance that in the end they will decide to bit the bullet and make the big sacrifice. Greek history is full of that too.

Greece faces meltdown after bailout vote bombshell
The Greek government faced possible collapse on Tuesday as ruling party lawmakers demanded Prime Minister George Papandreou resign for throwing the nation’s euro membership into jeopardy with a shock call for a referendum.
Caught unawares by his high-risk gamble, the leaders of France and Germany summoned Papandreou to crisis talks in Cannes on Wednesday to push for a quick implementation of Greece’s new bailout deal ahead of a summit of the G20 major world economies.
Six senior members of the ruling PASOK socialist party, angered by his decision to call a plebiscite on the 130 billion euro rescue package agreed only last week, said Papandreou should make way for ”a politically legitimate” administration.
 
Heard this last night. Good on him. Allow the people to decide.
 
Heard this last night. Good on him. Allow the people to decide.
Some feel that when in a time of crisis or war, a leader is supposed to lead and by that, to make the tough decisions. He's certainly getting a lot of slack for that from all sides. Those who hated him, still do and those who stood beside him now have second thoughts. If the voting masses get the slightest whiff of self-doubt or hesitation from the PM, it's game over for everyone. This is very much a high risk play.

Anyway, here's a great article I ran across today: Isolated Papandreou acts alone in referendum gamble
Aides say he has been shocked by the deep corruption and special interests that dominate Greek society and has felt isolated from many in his party, still dominated by the populist ideas of his late father, the socialist maverick.

With key bills like a tax reform and the 2012 budget ahead, demands from MPs for Papandreou to try to share the burden with other parties could no longer be ignored.

He broke the referendum news at the end of a long speech to his parliamentary group late on Monday.

Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, a constitutional law professor, spoke straight after him, backing the decision and giving the impression he had been briefed.

"Venizelos had no idea about the referendum," a government official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
He's essentially using an old trick from Alexander the Great; whenever he was unhappy with his army's performance he would charge straight into battle on his own, causing his officers to freak out and follow him into battle with extra vigor. It's a great tactic when it works.
 
..., but the Goldman Sachs affair should be firmly placed on Greek shoulders. They (PASOK as the time, under PM Simitis) brought in Goldman Sachs specifically to get around the Eurozone's Maastricht criteria. They got what they wanted.
But is what they got the same thing that the Greek people wanted. Were the Greek people honestly and conscientiously represented by the "leadership"? Would the Greek people have consented to cheating to get into the Euro? If the leadership committed fraud then they violated their duty and the debts are not owed by the Greek people. This is normal law in most places. If someone in a position of trust fraudulently takes on bad debts in your name then you are not liable.

But in this case there are consequences. The idea that Greeks can nuke their debts and then just live their lives as if everything is normal is incompatible with reality.
Of course there are consequences. The Bond holders would find out that they don't really have any money. That is the actual situation right now. Default is merely recognizing the reality. The investors sunk money into a dead donkey and there's no amount of flogging that will get it back.

Most of the debt is owned by Greek banks, which means the Greek financial sector will be wiped out completely. Only the IMF could help them then, and what will that require?

A new currency and a new banking infrastructure can be set up (should only ever be set up) by law. The country can take over all the dead banks because they are dead, and use that infrastructure to continue commerce. It's not very complicated but people have trouble with that idea because it makes all the paper in their pockets seem worthless, which they are except for the fact that the government has decreed that they can be used for trade.

But there's still a chance the Greek voters will choose yes. If that's the case, than history will show this to be the most brilliant move possible -

Yes, it will be a brilliant move to make Greeks accept responsibility for a debt which is not truly theirs. A referendum would destroy the defense that the debt is odious. It's like when debt collectors call you up to pay debts of a deceased parent. Once the estate is settled, no creditor has any right to pursue next of kin but IF you ask and they take on the debt by AGREEING to pay it then you have contracted to take on the debt which you would not otherwise owe. The Greeks must vote no. It won't fix the economy but it will allow them to keep what they still have and that is better than selling the assets of the country and defaulting on the new loans later (since you have no assets with which to generate the income to pay the new loans).
 
But is what they got the same thing that the Greek people wanted. Were the Greek people honestly and conscientiously represented by the "leadership"? Would the Greek people have consented to cheating to get into the Euro?
You know, I want to say that Greeks would have chosen not to cheat, but I find it very hard to do so. I've always believed that cheating is deeply woven into Greek culture. They cheat wherever they can and at all levels. The ancient Spartans would severely punish boys caught stealing, but the punishment was for the fact that they failed to get away with the crime, not for the crime itself. Greeks, like Russians, tend to place blame on the victim. If you were robbed, well, you paid for your lesson. In the last election Karamanlis ran on an economic reform platform where Papandreou ran on a spend platform. Look who they chose. To my own shock I've heard arguments from Greeks who tear down Papandreou not for his austerity reforms but for ever admitting the truth about Greek finances - they insist they should have been kept secret and continued with the shady dealings to prevent the crisis entirely. Yes, this is madness and is not at all sustainable. Something needs to change in Greek culture and it can only happen through a big shock to the system. People talk about Greece losing it's sovereignty to the EU and IMF. That is my dream, as I do not see Greece ever capable of fixing it's own problems. Greece's problems are far beyond Greece's abilities to fix them. And I'm not saying that because of the size of their debt but how it got that way.

If the leadership committed fraud then they violated their duty and the debts are not owed by the Greek people. This is normal law in most places. If someone in a position of trust fraudulently takes on bad debts in your name then you are not liable.
But you are twisting things here Fluffy. The debt is government debt and it's the government which will pay it. But the government can only pay it by making cuts and increasing taxes. If the store that you shop at is robbed and they lose lots of money, they will pass on the losses to their lawful, paying customers. It's not fair at all is it? But who said life is fair? Wanna talk fair? Talk to kids raised by parents addicted to drugs and gambling. Is it their fault the parents gambled their money away instead of investing in their kids? And the kids don't even get to vote who their parents are. The only hope for the kids is for a greater authority to step in and set things straight. Most importantly, like I alluded to above, the Greek government is a product of Greek society. They chose to do business with the EU in the same manner Greeks do business with each other. Problem is, those methods work only inside Greece, and even then they don't really work.

A new currency and a new banking infrastructure can be set up (should only ever be set up) by law. The country can take over all the dead banks because they are dead, and use that infrastructure to continue commerce. It's not very complicated but people have trouble with that idea because it makes all the paper in their pockets seem worthless, which they are except for the fact that the government has decreed that they can be used for trade.
What you're suggesting *MIGHT* work if Greece were to completely remove itself from the world economy completely and be fully self sufficient. That's not likely to happen ever. So long as the Greek currency would need to be traded for other currencies, Greece would be broke and its pretend money would be meaningless. Hard to run a tourism industry like that.

Yes, it will be a brilliant move to make Greeks accept responsibility for a debt which is not truly theirs. A referendum would destroy the defense that the debt is odious. It's like when debt collectors call you up to pay debts of a deceased parent. Once the estate is settled, no creditor has any right to pursue next of kin but IF you ask and they take on the debt by AGREEING to pay it then you have contracted to take on the debt which you would not otherwise owe.
Well, your analogy is slightly off. A better analogy would be if you lived rent free in your uncle's house and then your uncle passes away. You could let the bank take the house, and thus live on the street. Or take over your uncle's payments. Living for free was nice, but now you got a hard choice to make.
 
One more thing I'd like to say. My biggest concern here isn't if Greece stays in the Eurozone or not. My biggest concern is that Greece reforms. My concern is that if they reject the deal they will also reject the reforms which I believe are necessary for Greece to move forward in the long term. The short term is ruined either way, there's no saving that. But if they do make the hard cuts and modernize their economy, then I think the pain they're going through now may pay off in the end. If they decide to keep doing things the old ways, well, then there will be much more hurt in the future.
 
Looks like the attempt to bring a wee bit of democracy into the equation has once again been trumped by the markets:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-15575198
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is expected to offer his resignation within the next half-hour, sources in Athens have told the BBC.

Mr Papandreou will meet Greek President Karolos Papoulios immediately after an emergency cabinet meeting has finished.

He is expected to offer a coalition government, with former Greek central banker Lucas Papademos at the helm.

Mr Papandreou himself would stand down, the BBC understands.

The Greek government was on the verge of collapse after several ministers said they did not support Mr Papandreou's plan for a referendum on the EU bailout.

The markets are already responding positively.
 
The markets are the last thing that Greek MPs would care about. They're terrified of the result of the referendum.

Also, I'm not sure if that's a done deal yet. It's been a crazy day so far in Greece, let's wait and see how it plays out.

Ministers, MPs turn against PM over referendum
 
The markets are the last thing that Greek MPs would care about. They're terrified of the result of the referendum.
So it looks like now there will be no referendum. This is great. That makes it explicit that the people were not represented by their government which will be a good position to be in while tossing out the deal and defaulting.

By the way - here is a list of who has exposure to Greek debt.
 
Again, it's a bit early, we should wait for an official statement. I am however confused about your last statement. Why do you think Papandreou would reject the deal and default?

Anyway, here's something I wasn't aware of: Greece could not exit euro without leaving EU -Commission

Although polls show the deal is unpopular, Eurozone membership is still hugely supported. I would imagine EU membership even more so. I can't see Greece ever choosing to leave the EU as it provides them a great many political benefits (they've been using it against Turkey for years and is really their only real bargaining chip).
 
Ya, it looks official now: Bid for interim government as PM drops referendum

It's too bad for Papandreou. I would have advised against calling the referendum in the first place, but now that he did it would have been good to go through with it as it's most certain that Greeks would have approved it. Well, that's my opinion, obviously not everyone felt that way. Greece leaving the Euro & EU + defaulting is unacceptable. Even if I were to advocate leaving the Eurozone, I'd want to do so on better terms.

Now they want to build an interim government. No idea what that will look like. But that moron Samaras is likely to gain more power and that's not good for Greece either. We'll have to wait and see I guess.
 
Again, it's a bit early, we should wait for an official statement. I am however confused about your last statement. Why do you think Papandreou would reject the deal and default?
It's not about Papandreou. Now that it has been made clear that the Greeks could have voted on the bailout but that they were denied a vote on the bailout the fact that the bailout is not the will of the people is clearly defined. This means that whoever topples Papandreou can point to the fact that the deal does not have the backing of the people and has no standing. At that point Greece can default (and repatriate it's assets) since the previous government was illegitimate.
 
Well, not running the referendum doesn't mean the people would have voted no. Most likely, they would have voted yes actually. That's quite the leap you're making. And I can guarantee you that who ever replaces Papandreou, if indeed he is replaced, will go along with it as well. The deal will go through no matter what, it's just a matter of how much extra drama we will go though now.
 
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