India attacks

[Glaucus]

Pretty crazy what's going on in Mumbai! Wonder how that will play out. What's the likelihood Pakistan's ISI will be linked to it? What's the likelihood they are linked?

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Pretty crazy what's going on in Mumbai! Wonder how that will play out. What's the likelihood Pakistan's ISI will be linked to it? What's the likelihood they are linked?

The poor old US will find they have little choice now but to increase military incursions into Pakistan much to their chagrin because it's really really the absolute last thing that they would want. Thus sucking Obama deeper into the Afghan debacle and embedding the Bush legacy.

The attack definitely seemed to be directed at foreigners and is not the sort of thing you really want to do if you are part of an internal struggle so whoever did this was looking to make trouble for Pakistan or the Pakistani government. Undermining the Pakistani government (if the aim were to fill a power vacuum after undermining the government) would best be done internally by taking out soft parts of the power structure. Bringing in foreign interests would be bad for an internal Pakistani group - too much attention, likelihood of foreign occupation though perhaps there is a calculation that such a thing would be galvanizing - though I think it likelier that this does not arise from within either Pakistan nor India.

Afghan elements might find it advantageous to have Pakistan look east instead of west. On the other hand, those tribal areas would be near the top of the list when it comes to looking for troublemakers. Kashmir? Probably not.

It's a large enough operation to suggest that there is some serious thinking behind it so I wouldn't expect it to be just a bunch of guys who don't have a serious strategy and an objective behind it. Plenty of intrigue to be had here, I'm sure.

 

[the_leander]

My concern is, if the increasing levels of insurgency and anti west sentiment grows, leading to the government being toppled by a taliban esque crew, how many minutes would pakistan remain as anything other then a smoking hole in the ground after India hits it with everything it has.

Remember, these two countries armies still think of nuclear weapons in terms of them being big grenades....

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Remember, these two countries armies still think of nuclear weapons in terms of them being big grenades....

To generals they ARE just big grenades. The two atomic weapons dropped on Japan did not phase the generals. So the US wiped out two cities, so what? They'd already wiped out dozens of other cities. They would have been more concerned if military targets had been wiped out though. Sure there's fallout and such, but the fundamental military fact is that so long as more of them die than us, we win. If everyone dies then at least we didn't lose.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Stratfor says Pakistan will get the blame no matter whodunnit.

 

[Speelgoedmannetje]

Creepy stuff! :shock:

 

[the_leander]

Remember, these two countries armies still think of nuclear weapons in terms of them being big grenades....

To generals they ARE just big grenades. The two atomic weapons dropped on Japan did not phase the generals. So the US wiped out two cities, so what? They'd already wiped out dozens of other cities. They would have been more concerned if military targets had been wiped out though. Sure there's fallout and such, but the fundamental military fact is that so long as more of them die than us, we win. If everyone dies then at least we didn't lose.

The thing about the two bombs dropped on Japan was that no one at the time knew of the effects of radiation on the human body. Not so now, at least to western countries. Such understanding simply does not exist, on either side of this conflict.

If India does nuke Pakistan, much of the eastern side of India may become uninhabitable as a result. Whilst what you're saying is so in terms of strategic thinking, the results for such an action will be suffering on a scale never before imagined, even in our wildest nightmares.

 

[Glaucus]

This wouldn't be the first time India linked terror attacks to Pakistan, and nuclear war didn't occur in the past times either.

As for why would an internal movement wish to target foreigners? Depends on their motives. If they're smart, they'd know that a head-on war with India isn't feasible. However, destroying it's economy while the world is plunging into recession/depression and scaring away foreign investors would give you a great advantage. At least for a while.

It's possible that Pakistan's ISI is involved, but it's quite possible it isn't. The use of RDX does suggest some major foreign player was involved, but that isn't proof positive either (even high explosives get lost or stolen all the time).

Regardless, Pakistan really does need to clean up it's Islamist problems as they may end up a giant nuclear wasteland even if they are just victims themselves.

- Mike