Iran

FluffyMcDeath

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First up - Israel and the US have sent a large contingent of naval vessels (more than a dozen including the Aircraft Carrier USS Truman) to the Gulf. That's the Persian Gulf. The ships have transited the Suez canal already.Further, the Israeli Air force are suspected of having unloaded equipment in Saudi Arabia and US forces are massing in Azerbaijan

Meanwhile Iran pokes back with a flotilla of its own. Iran is sending aid ships to Gaza with toys and medical supplies and almost certainly that's all they are sending because they want to play the moral high ground here. They would love to be attacked on a humanitarian mission but getting through is almost as good. Either one plays well to the people of the Middle East. Israel is backed into a corner on Gaza so maybe they hope that bringing their guns and their dad's guns and loudly marching up and down the street outside of the Mullah's house will discourage them.

There is a bit of a race on to start this war, it seems. If US/Israel can get a military provocation going in the Gulf they can still attack on grounds that Iran is building nukes and Iran is the aggressor. If Iran can get their aid ship sunk or to Gaza they can paint the war as one started by a mad-dog state trying to starve the Palestinians to death.

Furthermore, it seems that Israel has already moved aircraft to the Caucuses and the US have also moved troops there. G8 leaders are pretty sure Israel will attack Iran.
 
Somehow I doubt Iran wants to start a war, but then again this is the Middle East, anything is possible and it doesn't need to make sense. As for the Iranian flotilla, I think they just want to win over some hearts and minds as it worked so well for Turkey. I don't expect Iran really cares much about the Palestinians and are not likely to want a real confrontation to result from this, but a few Iranian martyrs might give Iran some serious street cred in Syria and Lebanon. However, Israel has removed a number of it's aid restrictions from Gaza and there is less of a humanitarian need for a flotilla. Of course we all knew that the flotillas were more about politics then aid, but Israel has managed to recover a little bit on the moral playing field - but not enough by most people's standards I would think.

Either way, this could be the most interesting summer in the Middle East since 2003!
 
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