It looks like it'll be hard to stop Obama

FluffyMcDeath

FluffyMcDeath

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McCain's war chest is down to 25 million. He seems to be conceding states. Obama keeps increasing his lead (10, 11, 12 or more % depending on poll). He is gaining endorsements from respectable names and newspapers.

Early voter turnout is exceptionally heavy and so far very blue, even with scrubbed voter rolls and intimidation.

It's going to be hard to steal this one safely.
 
FluffyMcDeath said:
McCain's war chest is down to 25 million. He seems to be conceding states. Obama keeps increasing his lead (10, 11, 12 or more % depending on poll). He is gaining endorsements from respectable names and newspapers.

Early voter turnout is exceptionally heavy and so far very blue, even with scrubbed voter rolls and intimidation.

It's going to be hard to steal this one safely.
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It's too early to tell. I'm still convinced that there is a large part of the population that hasn't been accounted for in the polls, plus the Wilder Effect has not been ruled out yet.

I will say that for the first time in 20 years, it's at least an interesting race.

Wayne
 
Wayne said:
It's too early to tell. I'm still convinced that there is a large part of the population that hasn't been accounted for in the polls,
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There is the effect yet that we don't know how many of the people polled will find that they are not allowed to vote. There is also the effect that exit polls stopped being a reliable indicator of the winner in the US (though they still work everywhere else in the world) after 2000.
 
It's being called: "Flight to quality". I like it.
 
FluffyMcDeath said:
McCain's war chest is down to 25 million. He seems to be conceding states. Obama keeps increasing his lead (10, 11, 12 or more % depending on poll). He is gaining endorsements from respectable names and newspapers.

Early voter turnout is exceptionally heavy and so far very blue, even with scrubbed voter rolls and intimidation.

It's going to be hard to steal this one safely.
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Indeed...

IBD/TIPP Polls, who apparently was the most accurate pollster (according to Drudge) is stating that McCain is just 1.1 point behind Obama on Thursday (10/23).

Likewise, Gallop is claiming that early voting turnout is roughly equal for McCain and Obama.

My point to all of this is that the polls are so spread out that anyone can read anything into the posted results (IMO). We really won't know anything until 04 November.

Regards,
Ltstanfo
 
Drudge said that the IBD/TIPP polls were most accurate? HA!

Uh, no. They aren't. And here is why.

Look at the breakdown in the age demographics on their poll. I don't know what kind of sampling they used, but their sampling for 18-24 year old voters says that voters in that age range support McCain over Obama by a 74 percent to 22 percent margin. Every other poll I have ever seen shows Obama ahead in that age group by something like 15 percent minimum, and actually going as high as 25 or 30 or even 35 percent, varying by a few points in that range. I am not sure what sort of sampling method they used, but with numbers like that it looks like they went to a College Republican meeting and used THEM as their "sample" of 18-24 year olds.

Now, in their defense, IDB/TIPP did put a little asterisk by their 18-24 age group, and they do say "Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size". So obviously their poll is flawed to put it mildly, as a lot more people in that age group are voting these days and they are voting for Obama.

Remember, Drudge is the same moron who claimed just this week that young College Republican campaigning for McCain/Palin was telling a true story about her assault by a vicious black Obama supporter, when even Michelle Malkin wasn't buying it. So you may want to take things out of his mouth with a bit of a grain of salt.

EDIT: If you want accurate polling, the best thing you can do is some honest to god statistical analysis with a cross-section of multiple polls over time, like these guys do:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
 
Let's not assume "The Leader" has won until the election is counted. Sure the liberal medial is falling all over themsleves to annoint Obama as god and master of us all, but we all know how polls can be misleading and we all know how certain polls are ignored.

TheViewFromIndependence44.jpg



Now remember, I don't like either of these knucleheads. I just gotta roll my eyes at the liberal media's coverage of this election :roll:
 
Blocking the vote

Suppressing the vote has long been a cornerstone of the GOP's electoral strategy. Shortly before the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980, Paul Weyrich — a principal architect of today's Republican Party — scolded evangelicals who believed in democracy. "Many of our Christians have what I call the 'goo goo' syndrome — good government," said Weyrich, who co-founded Moral Majority with Jerry Falwell. "They want everybody to vote. I don't want everybody to vote. . . . As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down."
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Colorado estimates are the Republicans have removed 1 out of 5 voters from the voting roles.
 
redrumloa said:
Now remember, I don't like either of these knucleheads. I just gotta roll my eyes at the liberal media's coverage of this election :roll:
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Believe me, if McCain was ahead in the polls, they'd be doing the same thing.
 
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