Korea vs Korea

FluffyMcDeath

FluffyMcDeath

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It's been a little while since the dust up between the Koreas but until now I hadn't bothered looking at maps. Maps are very helpful understanding geopolitics. Here is one that shows the area of interest.
1235717667.jpg


Yes, it's a chunk of land that lies within where the South and the North claim heir maritime borders are. And that's why the US and the South thought it would be a good place to have military exercises together. It is quite clearly aimed as a poke in the eye (or provocation) to North Korea - the same as every year. For whatever reason the North decided to follow through on its annual threats of response.

Perhaps the correct international response would be to demilitarize a maritime zone the way they have a DMZ on land - a zone which takes into account the overlap and adds some safe space. If the real issue were a North Korea / South Korea fight it might be OK to let them duke it out but the issue is really a China versus US fight and that one could hurt a lot more people.
 
Honestly, I doubt China would get involved at all.

Is what South korea & the US doing provocative? Sure it is. Is that justification for a war? Hell no. Greece is overflown by Turkish military jets almost daily, and I'm not talking at 30,000 feet, but a few hundred feet and over populated areas. If Greece were to shoot down a Turkish fighter Greece would look like the bad guy. Greeks know this and instead just file a complaint with the EU (frontex has also filed similar complaints) to use as justification for a big fat veto to Turkey's EU bid. But North Korea seems more interested in forcing the issue, and they have plenty of reasons to do so. China is/was their only ally, and they seem to be distancing themselves now that their economy is doing well and ties with the West are growing stronger. Really, the way things are there's no reason for the US and China to be enemies, they're huge trading partners and neither side wants to jeopardize that. North Korea realizing that without China they will eventually wither away, probably believes that it can get China back on it's side by forcing a confrontation bringing in the US. But I don't see China falling for it. I also don't think we'll see a war anytime real soon. North Korea's best weapon is total surprise, and this latest skirmish kinda blew that. If the South was attempting to escalate to a war, they also blew their chance here as well. End result: continued stalemate.
 
The Korean War Armistice Agreement was signed on July 27, 1953. According to KWAA article II, Paragraph A, the 5 Islands of the west coast of Korea were specifically designated to remain under the control of the ROK. The Islands and their surrounding waters were under ROK jurisdiction when the war broke out, because they lie south of the 38th parallel (the pre-Korean War Boundary) and remained under ROK control through out the war.
 
all of this is childish and stupid
 
Certainly this is a signal to the US. Exactly what they're signaling we can only guess, but my guess would be that the Chinese didn't dig what the US had to say behind the scenes.

But it may also indicate a few changes in North Korea. China would not likely move troops into North Korea if they believed North Korea would act irrationally in any way (the stakes are just way too high for everyone involved and the Chinese have traditionally been risk adverse). So they either really trust the North Korean leadership, or they have a higher level of "influence" now then before. I'm guessing the latter.
 
On the radio today someone, forgot who, was talking China's relation to the Korea's. It appears China has about 30x more economic trade with South Korea rather than North. If they act in their own self interest, which countries tend to do, they'd protect the South from any invasion from the North. Which may be overtaking the North.
 
Glaucus said:
Or perhaps it's all a big mix up! Beijing denies sending troops to Pyongyang
Click to expand...

What an interesting game. If it was an outright lie then North Korea should have expected a denial. It seemed pretty plausible though, China sending security for their interests. Perhaps it's one of those word games. Perhaps China is sending personnel but they might not be Chinese and they might not be labeled "troops". Or a misunderstanding, or a gambit. Or perhaps China WAS sending troops but after a little Hu to Obama chat everyone has decided that a little more tact in relations is in order.
 
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