Punitive Measures

[Glaucus]

Since everyone loves the doom and gloom these days, thought I'd pour some more fuel to the fire: Punitive Measures

The coming Palestinian statehood push at the United Nations is a train wreck. But with the U.S. Congress promising punishment for this effrontery, it's not just Palestinians who will come away grievously injured.

It's an almost perfect storm shaping up for the next major world conflict. World economies are tanking, alliances are shifting, high tensions all around and we have all these new high tech weapons just sitting all over the place.

For me the big question is: how will NATO react if Israel makes ANY move against Turkey? If Turkey follows through with it's threat to escort aid flotillas to Gaza with their navy, Israel will have one tough choice. They might actually back down and perhaps try to intercept it on land. Or they might just go crazy and kick off one heck of a war. But in the latter case, NATO would be required to assist Turkey. Would love to know how that would go down. How ironic would it be for Israel to fire the shot that kills NATO?

Anyway, this article isn't about what I just wrote. However, if what I wrote does play out then future historians might pinpoint the original starting point back to what this article is about. What happens in the UN in the next week or so may make some serious changes to the world.

 

[the_leander]

5 years ago in a conversation with an Israeli I said that the situation as it was (and is) unsustainable, with the nutters on all sides calling the shots, and that sooner or later, someone would do something really stupid and it'd all kick off.

In the mean time Israel has continued on it's path relentlessly and replaced the then hard right wing government with an aggressive far right one. Lo and behold, things have escalated beyond all reason.

I'd like to think that someone, somewhere in the Israeli government will curb stomp their politicians before this gets irrevocably out of hand. But with each passing day that seems even more unlikely.

 

[the_leander]

For me the big question is: how will NATO react if Israel makes ANY move against Turkey?

I don't think there is the political will within Europe at least to lift a finger in Israel's defence, nor the money. Turkey is seen as more important, if for no other reason then as a buffer against the more crazy brands of deep desert Islam. Even within the US, given the dire financial situation I don't think they have the leverage they might once have enjoyed.

Besides, right now the US is concentrating on Uzbekistan, because without their aid, vast quantities of high tech weapons will never leave Afghanistan. Israel will have to wait until that gets sorted.

If Turkey follows through with it's threat to escort aid flotillas to Gaza with their navy, Israel will have one tough choice.

Given past experience, I really, sincerely doubt it'll be that tough.

They might actually back down and perhaps try to intercept it on land.

Certainly the most politically wise choice if they're going to try to normalise relations with Turkey down the line - especially given they can go into Gaza at will. That said the current lot haven't really shown an over abundance of brains on the political front thus far.

Or they might just go crazy and kick off one heck of a war.

I would hope even the lunatics that are currently running Israel would have the sense not to fire on Turkish vessels in international waters. Given their recent provocations, I can't see Turkey taking too kindly to that.

Would love to know how that would go down.

Badly, for everyone.

How ironic would it be for Israel to fire the shot that kills NATO?

Indeed.

What happens in the UN in the next week or so may make some serious changes to the world.

Here's hoping cool heads prevail.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

For me the big question is: how will NATO react if Israel makes ANY move against Turkey? If Turkey follows through with it's threat to escort aid flotillas to Gaza with their navy, Israel will have one tough choice. They might actually back down and perhaps try to intercept it on land. Or they might just go crazy and kick off one heck of a war. But in the latter case, NATO would be required to assist Turkey.

On that point one has to remember that rules are for the weak to follow. An iron clad rule is iron clad until the biggest kid says it's not. There is probably an army of lawyers sitting around a table right now figuring out a list of appropriate interpretations to cover any eventuality.

 

[Glaucus]

You're right, but right now NATO is nothing more then a means to keep Turkey under some form of control. If they decide to start stirring shit up, and even worse, decide to become friendly with Iran and also attempt to become the biggest influence in Egypt and Libya (and later Syria?), well, that could cause problems. They might decide to instead toss Turkey out of NATO and treat like they do other nations in the region. And there certainly is good reason to believe Turkey will stir things up: Likely scenarios for the Eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey’s political objective is to regain lost ground following its poor reaction to the popular uprisings in Libya and Syria and, taking advantage of the Arab Spring momentum, to establish a zone of influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. Its ultimate ambition is to establish itself as a hegemon in the Middle Eastern region.
In order to achieve this goal, Ankara believes it has to pit itself against Israel. Meanwhile, Turkey is trying to halt the geopolitical and economic advances of the Cyprus Republic (emanating from its transformation into an energy hub) and any future attempts by Greece to raise the question of an exclusive economic zone in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey has publicly stated that if Greece were to claim it's EEZ at the UN, it would treat that as a declaration of war. Of course no one really cares about Greece, but it seems Israel has interests in Cyprus.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Personally I think Israel needs a bitch slap and it's got to come from a friend. If the US thinks it is useful to have a pitbull in the east then it has to show, from time to time, that it owns the pitbull - otherwise it's just a rabid mutt and someone is going to take it upon themselves to put it down.

The problem is that it is very difficult for American politicians to demonstrate control over Israel because it makes them unelectable to even broach the subject.

The problem for Israel is that if the "Arab Spring" leads to more NATO controlled governments spreading through the region then Israel will become more and more irrelevant to policy and inevitably be recognized as the liability it is. Internally it is just becoming more and more radicalized which perhaps is to be expected in the deep seated culture that identifies itself as both chosen by God and eternal victim. As the ultra rightists scrap it out in the Knesset for control they are becoming more and more distanced from the majority of the people in the street who care less about ideology and more about affordable housing.

 

[Glaucus]

Personally I think Israel needs a bitch slap and it's got to come from a friend.

I think we all know you think Israel needs a bitch slap. But seriously, I think things are changing and not so much in their favor. Obama said today that he sees a Palestinian state in the long term. Problem is, no one sees Obama in the long term.

And I can agree with you that yes, Israel is a misbehaved brat. But so is Turkey, just in different ways affecting different groups. Both have plenty of blood on their hands, both have the potential to get a lot more blood on their hands and both have a great deal of influence with the US although at the same time both have lost a bit of it over recent years. Ideally both would loose US favor, but if I had to pick one of the two right now I'd probably choose Turkey.