Standard & Poor's takes a small step towards facing reality

FluffyMcDeath

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It's starting to become so obvious that even with gargantuan effort to deliberately ignore reality - truth is starting to shine through the cracks.

S&P Downgrades US credit rating from AAA to AA+

here and here

Incidentally, 13 banks failed in July which is a bit of a surge following some months of declines in that particular indicator.
 
Yup first time in history, this is the drum I have been beating for years. I wonder how many thousand points the DOW will drop Monday? 2,000? 3,000? Way to go Obama!

And people here were mad at the Tea Party members who didn't want to raise the debt ceiling without real reforms to lower the debt? You reap what you sow.
 
The credit rating agency on Friday lowered the nation's AAA rating for the first time since granting it in 1917.

Which of course means that we are in a far worse situation than the Great Depression.
 
Yup first time in history, this is the drum I have been beating for years. I wonder how many thousand points the DOW will drop Monday? 2,000? 3,000? Way to go Obama!
It was probably going to go down anyway - no matter what the debt ceiling deal. The problem isn't what the government spends as much as what the country makes. The value of the dollar basically comes down to what you can get for it and if the US isn't making anything then you can't get anything.

Having said that, it seems that S&P deliberately held off on the downgrade for a long time just to do it after the deal - so they could underline the fact that they don't like it. Since the deal has been both derided as all cuts and no taxes but also taxes but no real cuts the rhetoric hasn't really been helpful in understanding what is actually involved - nor is it clear how S&P would have the insight so soon after the deal to have analyzed it sufficiently to give this downgrade. No, the downgrade has been on the table for while as an option and it's either belated realism or it's being used as a political weapon against Obama, in which case, how will Obama respond? Will he stop being the banker's boy and grow a spine or will he roll over and suck up more?

If he keeps going with the bank's agenda I'm not sure how electable he'll be even if Wall St. gives billions to his campaign. Obama would be better off chopping off some heads and putting them on spikes - but hen again, he probably wouldn't live out the month if he did that.
 
If he keeps going with the bank's agenda I'm not sure how electable he'll be even if Wall St. gives billions to his campaign. Obama would be better off chopping off some heads and putting them on spikes - but hen again, he probably wouldn't live out the month if he did that.

He doesn't have the balls or the brains.
 
Yup first time in history, this is the drum I have been beating for years. I wonder how many thousand points the DOW will drop Monday? 2,000? 3,000? Way to go Obama!

Why would you single out Obama? Have you actually read Standard & Poor´s explanation for the downgrade?

"The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America’s governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy."

And people here were mad at the Tea Party members who didn't want to raise the debt ceiling without real reforms to lower the debt? You reap what you sow.

Actually, any plans for "real reforms" would have to include at least the option of higher tax rates which the Tea Party appears to be fundamentally opposed to for purely ideological reasons.

Which of course means that we are in a far worse situation than the Great Depression.

Well, tax rates in the US were higher back then :)
 
Why would you single out Obama? Have you actually read Standard & Poor´s explanation for the downgrade?

"The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America’s governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy."

Good reason right there to blame Obama (Presidents get all the blame, right?), he had two very good options on get the US budgets to a reasonable goal of being balanced and he said they were non-starters. First specific one was the, "Cut, Cap, and Balance" and the second one he really didn't like was the Penny Plan (1% annual cuts for the next 8 years). He and the Democrats offered smoke and mirrors (promises some day that the budget would get cut that will never happen) which would resulted in a $25T debt by 2012. Obama took office at just under $10T and he will (hopefully) leave in 2012 at just under $18T, in just 4 years.

Actually, any plans for "real reforms" would have to include at least the option of higher tax rates which the Tea Party appears to be fundamentally opposed to for purely ideological reasons.

I'll call you out on that one right here and now. How much more taxes? Give me some numbers because if we taxed 100% of everyone making $100K or more a year, we can't balance the budget, we are still at least $400B shortly yearly (I think the numbers at $1.1T generated by the 100% tax rate at $100K plus).

Well, tax rates in the US were higher back then :)

Only for those making less money, they actually had to pay income tax (vs 49% of American tax filers who paid 0% in 2010). Now if you are referring to top tax bracket, in 1930, was a whopping 25%! What good old FDR did to insure the Great Depression continued was to jump that tax rate to 58% and the bottom rate to 10% in 1932 and then to 68% for top rate and 11% for the bottom rate in 1936. That is a perfect method of taking money out of the economy to insure economic depression continues. Let me quote you something that was stated in May of 1939 at the House Ways and Means Committee that I found at: http://www.artdiamondblog.com/archives/2009/03/_in_new_deal_or.html.

"Henry Morgenthau, Jr. was FDR's Secretary of the Treasury from 1934-1945. In the following important quote, he admits that the big New Deal stimulus spending programs had failed.

(p. 2) We have tried spending money. We are spending more money than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just none interest, and if I am wrong . . . somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job, I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. . . . I say after eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started . . . . And an enormous debt to boot!"​

But you are right, taxes will have to go up if someone (other then Obama as President) does not stop the bleeding very soon. I am at the tail end of the Baby Boomers, when I retire, there is going to be two workers left to support me plus real world interest rates on $30T+ and the rest of Federal Budget. You will see Truman's tax rates during the 1950s (JFK lowered them significantly, Ike only cut a few % off) as the norm. If you think the very rich and multi national corps are sticking around, put down the crack pipe already. If you doubt my words, take a look at census data for CA and NY, the rich are leaving heavily taxed states for states that have minimal taxation. Depending on my financial status at my retirement, I may even leave and I won't be the only middle income earners to do it either, many retirees go to Panama or Costa Rica to retire already.

Back on topic, S&P was not the first to do this, the only independent Chinese rating firm already lowered the US rating last Nov, and is about to do it again:

 
I am at the tail end of the Baby Boomers, when I retire, there is going to be two workers left to support me [...]

That would be the same problem exactly if all your investments for retirement were with private funds. Instead of paying through payroll deductions to give you money to buy the things they make they would have to be paying interest on money they borrowed from you so that you could buy what they have made. At that point you are just running up against the underlying facts.

However, there won't be just two people. There will be more than that but the question is will they be working? If the money is all locked up so that they can't participate in the system then they won't be able to help fund your retirement. The money needs to be spread around so that it can do work in the economy. You won't get much of a retirement out of a feudal economy where almost everything is owned by a few rich lords (unless you are one of those lords in which case you will do very well).
 
How important to the world is the U.S. AAA rating?

If the answer is, "very," it strikes me that these ratings agencies wield an exremely disproportionate amount of power.
 
How important to the world is the U.S. AAA rating?

If the answer is, "very," it strikes me that these ratings agencies wield an exremely disproportionate amount of power.

Very and yes.
 
Yup first time in history, this is the drum I have been beating for years. I wonder how many thousand points the DOW will drop Monday? 2,000? 3,000? Way to go Obama!

And people here were mad at the Tea Party members who didn't want to raise the debt ceiling without real reforms to lower the debt? You reap what you sow.
S&P report - Page 4... I'll quote for your reading.
""We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act." "
 
How important to the world is the U.S. AAA rating?

If the answer is, "very," it strikes me that these ratings agencies wield an exremely disproportionate amount of power.
Plus there are people who benefit from lowering stock rates....
 
S&P report - Page 4... I'll quote for your reading.
""We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act." "

Much as I think the parties are two cheeks of the same, smelly erse, that still made me smile.
:rtfm:
 
I'll call you out on that one right here and now. How much more taxes? Give me some numbers because if we taxed 100% of everyone making $100K or more a year, we can't balance the budget, we are still at least $400B shortly yearly (I think the numbers at $1.1T generated by the 100% tax rate at $100K plus).

The reason I mentioned taxes is because Standard & Poor specifically singled out the refusal of influential politicians to even consider the option as a reason for the downgrade. And I happen to completely agree with their reasoning. Choosing not to raise taxes after careful consideration is completely different from not even considering it under any circumstances, especially with such a horrible track record at cutting costs in the past (although this is hardly a US phenomenon).

Earlier this year, I would have never dreamt that the supposed "party of business", i.e. the Republicans, would have gone so far to make the rest of the world genuinely believe that the US government could in fact default on their obligations - for no obvious political gain as far as I can see.

Only for those making less money, they actually had to pay income tax (vs 49% of American tax filers who paid 0% in 2010). Now if you are referring to top tax bracket, in 1930, was a whopping 25%! What good old FDR did to insure the Great Depression continued was to jump that tax rate to 58% and the bottom rate to 10% in 1932 and then to 68% for top rate and 11% for the bottom rate in 1936.

That is a perfect method of taking money out of the economy to insure economic depression continues.

I was commenting on red´s statement that the US was in a worse position today than it was during the Great Depression simply because the credit rating is lower. From a fiscally conservative´s perspective, which I assume would be red´s, his opinion is difficult to understand because the relation between the national debt and the size of the economy was not substantially lower, the tax rates went through the roof and nationwide unemployment rates were generally higher.

Fiscally and economically, I think few people would seriously argue that the US of today is worse off than it was during the Great Depression (real GDP shrank 25% back then compared to 6% now). As has been my argument all along, the credit rating downgrade is primarily the result of a real world political crisis which is unfortunately hurting the US as well as the world economy as a whole...
 
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