The Syrian National Council was at Bilderberg

The fact that someone like Kodmani is connected with powerful people doesn't mean much really. When Greece was occupied by Turkey, many Greeks made connections with Kings and leaders of the Western nations. Eventually Western nations helped Greece win it's independence, although it was well understood that they did so for their own interests and not so much for the sake of Greece. The Greeks understood this from the beginning and their objective was always to highlight the benefits and worry about the repercussions later. That's Kodami's job right now and she seems to be doing it well. Still, I don't see NATO planes over Syria right now and that tells me she still has a lot of convincing to do. If the Western nations really wanted to take out Syria, we'd be talking about Assad strictly in past tense by now. I still do not expect to see any Syrian intervention. At least not this year.

I must say, Assad has done a good job of mucking this up badly. He had the chance to just open it all up democratically and he'd still have a chance at a respectable level of power. Now it's just a matter of time before he's just another body in the streets. What a loser.
 
Glaucus said:
Still, I don't see NATO planes over Syria right now and that tells me she still has a lot of convincing to do. If the Western nations really wanted to take out Syria, we'd be talking about Assad strictly in past tense by now. I still do not expect to see any Syrian intervention. At least not this year.
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Because Russia and China have too much at stake. Russia because they are still trying to keep some of what they had and China because they need not to have to crawl to the US for energy - it would really put a damper on a lot of what they have achieved in terms of technical and economic power.
I must say, Assad has done a good job of mucking this up badly. He had the chance to just open it all up democratically and he'd still have a chance at a respectable level of power. Now it's just a matter of time before he's just another body in the streets. What a loser.
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You know that isn't what we want. We don't want the locals to have any say in what we do with their country. It's about pipeline routes and not having to pay the full rate for them. It's about gaining a compliant puppet regime that will allow US bases and grant overflight access and transportation for operations against Iran. And Iran is about putting in a puppet regime to control their oil. Only if Assad said - OK, build a base - I won't stand in your way - would he have a chance and even then he would have an accident once he let the puppets in. It's not ever about democracy - if our leaders thought democracy was important they would be extending more of it to us instead of taking it away.
 
Regardless of what the US might want, the point is that Assad could have averted all this if he did turn his nation into a true democracy. There's no reason to believe he couldn't do that without maintaining some level of power, even if only to be leader of opposition. But most likely scenario is that Iran and Russia put the screws to him and set his policies for him. Not only is he not acting in his nation's best interests, but also not in his own best interests. That to me is a clear mark of a complete idiot. As far as tyrant leaders go, I had more respect for Kadaffi.
 
Glaucus said:
Regardless of what the US might want, the point is that Assad could have averted all this if he did turn his nation into a true democracy.
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No he could not because, regardless of what you just said, there is no "regardless of what the US might want". So long as they are as big as they are with the interests they have it doesn't matter what kind of government you have so long as it lets US companies have whatever they want, which ultimately means that it cannot be a democracy (it can only look a bit like one, the way our countries do). Take a look at what happens to democratically elected leaders in South America.

The only way to save himself from the Americans would be to swear fielty to them - which would put him at odds with the Russians. If he switched sides and worked for the Americans then he would be allowed to kill as many of the rebels as he wants and they wouldn't get any more money from the US - he could act like the King of Bahrain for all America cares - or like the Saudis with all of their democratic rights.
 
FluffyMcDeath said:
The only way to save himself from the Americans would be to swear fielty to them - which would put him at odds with the Russians. If he switched sides and worked for the Americans then he would be allowed to kill as many of the rebels as he wants and they wouldn't get any more money from the US - he could act like the King of Bahrain for all America cares - or like the Saudis with all of their democratic rights.
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Ok, so why didn't he? Why didn't Assad just tell the Russians and Iranians to {bleep} themselves and pledge allegiance to the US? Why doesn't everyone? There's really no reason, except that perhaps he probably wouldn't agree with your assessment.
 
Glaucus said:
Ok, so why didn't he? Why didn't Assad just tell the Russians and Iranians to {bleep} themselves and pledge allegiance to the US? Why doesn't everyone? There's really no reason, except that perhaps he probably wouldn't agree with your assessment.
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It would be ... awkward. He is between a rock and a hard place. Like I said, he probably wouldn't last long under that plan either - he'd just make America's job easier. If he turns his back on the guys that need him to stay in place he becomes as expendable to them as he already is to the US. Understand that the pressure on Assad from the people that he is currently aligned with will be very great right now and he would be a fool to trust the US if he switched sides - he'd end up dead anyway. Better to go down fighting. There is much more honour in that.
 
Sure, if he were to switch sides NOW, he'd certainly be thrown out by his generals who also have strong ties to the Russian and Iranian military/spy agencies. However, my point is he should never have waited this long. When Tayyip Erdogan took the helm the first thing he did was fire the generals in a nation famous for it's military coups (actually, he had them arrested). I'm no fan of Erdogan, but I must admit Erdogan is a pretty smart cookie. Assad on the other hand is a fool.
 
Glaucus said:
Assad on the other hand is a fool.
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Assad's situation is completely different. I suggest that you think about the various scenarios and what would happen. Surely you have some political experience. High school? A club? An organization? You must have some insight into how it works, unless you were one of those people who came to AGMs only because you felt like you had to and then just voted for officers and resolutions based on wild arsed guesses. Assad is no fool. He's been there a long time. But he is getting penned in and the purpose of penning someone in is to do it in stages that they can't do much about until they are completely trapped. It's chess.
 
So your argument is that he's not a fool because he allowed himself to be penned in? I think that's a good candidate for the best self defeating post ever.
 
Glaucus said:
So your argument is that he's not a fool because he allowed himself to be penned in? I think that's a good candidate for the best self defeating post ever.
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Kasparov lost to Deep Blue therefore Kasparov is an idiot.
 
FluffyMcDeath said:
Kasparov lost to Deep Blue therefore Kasparov is an idiot.
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Your analogy would be more accurate if we added: Kasparov lost to Deep Blue because he made moves based on recommendations from an IBM staffer.

Assad always seemed happy being Russia's & Iran's foreign policy extension. Now he's paying the price. Erdogan decided he no longer wanted Turkey to be an extension of US policy. And look, he's still around and Turkey continues to build US weapons including the new F35. Now you tell me which of the two looks like a fool.
 
Glaucus said:
Assad always seemed happy being Russia's & Iran's foreign policy extension.
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Assad is a little guy in the scheme of things. He has to pick the allies that make sense for where he lives. Erdogan was elected in and had the opportunity to change Turkey's alliances because he did not make the old ones. Assad was born into power and bares the responsibility for the alliances he has made and those that his father made. In politics your honour is the most important currency you have. Acting treacherously is suicidal. You don't abandon your allies until after they are dead.


(aside)
Firefox spell checker doesn't recognize Erdogan but recommends as correct spelling the single entry "Underdog".
 
ten years from now we will be fighting terrorists from that country in our own back yard too...
 
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