USA Global Warming report (minus Minnesota) for Dec 27, 2010

[redrumloa]

North East:
Winter storm could strand air passengers for days
http://www.wsvn.com/news/articles/natio ... 114576831/

"This is a bad time for a blizzard to hit the East Coast," said airline consultant Darryl Jenkins. He said it will be difficult for the airlines to accommodate all the stranded travelers in the New York area quickly enough, and some may abandon their travel plans.

The paralyzing storm in the Northeast comes a week after several inches of snow shut down London's Heathrow Airport and left travelers sleeping on terminal floors. It took five days for Europe's busiest hub airport to resume normal operations.

By afternoon, major U.S. airlines had announced more than 3,100 canceled flights for Monday. Continental, whose hub in Newark, N.J., was shut down by the storm, scrubbed 800 flights and Delta dropped 700.

That came on top of at least 3,800 cancellations Sunday, according to figures the airlines provided to The Associated Press.

South Florida:
Freeze, wind chill warnings in effect across Fla.
http://www.wsvn.com/news/articles/local/21003114554748/

Wind chill advisories and hard freeze warnings were posted as temperatures began to dip Sunday. Forecasters say that cold and brisk northwest winds will keep things chilly throughout the day Monday.

Temperatures could drop into the teens in north Florida. Anyone venturing outside is encouraged to dress in layers, possibly even in a hat and gloves.

A freeze watch is in effect Monday through Tuesday for inland parts of South Florida. That means conditions are expected to be cold enough to kill farm crops.

Forecasters also warn that the cold, dry air improves conditions for wildfires to spread.

Snow flurries were reported Sunday in various spots across north Florida.

Anchorage, Alaska
Snow-loaded power line left hundreds of skiers in the dark
http://www.adn.com/2010/12/27/1621193/g ... after.html

The community of Girdwood, including Alyeska Resort, lost electrical service Sunday as a result of equipment problems that began with a snow-loaded power line, a Chugach Electric Association spokeswoman said.

Power went out in some areas around 3:30 p.m., and it was restored to part of town around 8:20 p.m., said spokeswoman Patti Bogan. The entire community regained service around 3:30 a.m. today, about 12 hours after the outage began, she said.

The problem started when snow blew or melted off a power line, causing it to bounce into another line, Bogan said. That in turn caused problems with an insulator, and a wire came loose, leading to the outage.

Around 425 customer meters were affected, Bogan said. A meter can serve several apartments.

“The entire town of Girdwood was out,” she said.

 

[Robert]

......maybe the makers of 'The Day Eftir The Morra' were on to something......

 

[faethor]

Red you provided precipation but nothing related to temp?

Newark, NJ this time of year averages a high of 40. Predictions are Tue: 38, Wed: 40, Thur: 39, Fri: 42, Sat: 45, Sun 43.

Ancorage, Alaska this time of year averages a high of 23 for the month and at this time tend to be closer to 17 degrees. Predictions are Tue: 13, Wed: 25, Thur: 29, Fri: 35, Sat: 29, Sun: 28

Miami averages about 74 degrees in Dec. A bit lower at this time of the month. Tue: 65. Wed 72, Thur 75, Fri 76, Sat 78, Sun 79.

 

[redrumloa]

Red you provided precipation but nothing related to temp?

In South FL we have seen record breaking lows the last 2 nights as with many nights this winter. BTW projections are just that, projections. We will see. Yes there have been some average days and a few slightly above average day, but average that out with a majority of days well below average and quite a few record breaking far, far below average and you will see a true trend. Of course we will not see that. Climategate taught us that temperatures are cherry picked by "scientists" to get the preferred conclusion.

As for Alaska I don't know, but I do know my friend who has been there since the early 90's keeps telling me how brutally cold this winter is.

 

[redrumloa]

I have been driving since 1988. Before last year (not including 2006 when I was in Alabama) I have never woken up to find frost and/or ice on my car. Last year I experienced it 3 times IIRC, this year I have at least 7 times. The winter is still young, I wonder what Jan-Feb will bring?

 

[faethor]

In South FL we have seen record breaking lows the last 2 nights as with many nights this winter. BTW projections are just that, projections. We will see. Yes there have been some average days and a few slightly above average day, but average that out with a majority of days well below average and quite a few record breaking far, far below average and you will see a true trend. Of course we will not see that. Climategate taught us that temperatures are cherry picked by "scientists" to get the preferred conclusion.

Projections are projections but are fairly accurate. At least compared to state of climate science 30 years ago when I was a kid. Though you're right they aren't always exact we're been exceeding our predictions the last couple of weeks by a degree or two.

What will it be at the end? I guess that depends on how it all ends. Last winter we saw a colder Dec. Then Jan and Feb were warm. So far here this Dec. seems like a replay of last Dec. Cold early Dec and warm late Dec. We're only 8 days into winter, hardly enough detail to project, but if I used these last 8 days I think we're due for fairly mild winter.

Though if your question is climatic change you have to broaden your picture to not a single winter event but to springs, summers, winters, and falls over multiple years and beyond Florida and beyond the US to the world. Saying we have 1 cold month in a row is hardly trend setting.

Climategate taught us that temperatures are cherry picked by "scientists" to get the preferred conclusion.

In short -BS!

 

[Robert]

Ok, we've been over this already but either it still hasn't sunk in or you're deliberately lying:

Climategate taught us that temperatures are cherry picked by "scientists" to get the preferred conclusion.

No, it didn't.

I asked you repeatedly to provide evidence of this and you singularly failed to do so yet you still insist on peddling this myth.

We can agree to disagree on what's happening with the global climate but this is a blatant lie that can't go unchallenged.

 

[redrumloa]

Ok, we've been over this already but either it still hasn't sunk in or you're deliberately lying:

Climategate taught us that temperatures are cherry picked by "scientists" to get the preferred conclusion.

No, it didn't.

I asked you repeatedly to provide evidence of this and you singularly failed to do so yet you still insist on peddling this myth.

We can agree to disagree on what's happening with the global climate but this is a blatant lie that can't go unchallenged.

How quick you forget using tricks to hide the decline.

 

[Robert]

Ok, we've been over this already but either it still hasn't sunk in or you're deliberately lying:

Climategate taught us that temperatures are cherry picked by "scientists" to get the preferred conclusion.

No, it didn't.

I asked you repeatedly to provide evidence of this and you singularly failed to do so yet you still insist on peddling this myth.

We can agree to disagree on what's happening with the global climate but this is a blatant lie that can't go unchallenged.

How quick you forget using tricks to hide the decline.

No, Jim it is you who is forgetting there is NO evidence WHATSOEVER to show that "temperatures are cherry picked by "scientists"."

But clearly you are sticking your fingers in your ears, giving it, "la-la-la..."

If you can provide ANY evidence for your claim, provide a reliable link.

Otherwise please stop passing off unmitigated shyte as the truth.

 

[redrumloa]

passing off unmitigated shyte as the truth.

Surely you mean "The Science is Settled" Global Warming as unmitigated shyte :?:

 

[Robert]

passing off unmitigated shyte as the truth.

Surely you mean "The Science is Settled" Global Warming as unmitigated shyte :?:

No, I mean what I said - please stop passing off unmitigated shyte as the truth.

But if you can't prove your point, change the subject. ;-)

 

[Glaucus]

It's funny, I keep reading about all these winter disasters, yet here it's been very mild. Too mild, I prefer it a little colder. When it's just around freezing point, the snow melts and makes cars very dirty. Really hate that. Damn global warming.

 

[faethor]

How quick you forget using tricks to hide the decline.

Egads! A 'trick' is clever way of doing something. Often this is a mathematical shortcut. It seems you are misinterpeting the word to mean something akin to 'a grift' or 'a ruse'.

If anything Climategate has shown us how easy it is to take 1 source of evidence and misapply things because one doesn't have the full discussion to judge on. Remember these emails are causal friendly emails to each other. The Scientists don't always talk in formal scientific structure, that's for papers, not emails to colleges.

 

[Robert]

How quick you forget using tricks to hide the decline.

Egads! A 'trick' is clever way of doing something. Often this is a mathematical shortcut. It seems you are misinterpeting .....

Hahaha... 'misinterpreting' - nice euphemism.

Nothing is being misinterpreted here.

Trolling, lying or deliberate ignorance maybe but misinterpreting? I don't think so.

This kiech was all covered in the original 'Climategate' thread here

And when asked for actual, you know, evidence, the same vacuous and vague claims were made about scientists deliberately lying without a single piece of evidence.

And surprise, surprise sur-{bleep}-prise, less than six months later, here we are again having to refute the same, fabricated pish.

Perhaps it's the old, "tell a lie often enough..." tactic but if so it's pathetic and stifles any genuine debate.

 

[metalman]

How quick you forget using tricks to hide the decline.

Egads! A 'trick' is clever way of doing something. Often this is a mathematical shortcut.

the "trick" was to truncate tree ring data @1960 so that the decline after 1960 was not shown in the IPCC report


IPCC and the “Trick”

 

[faethor]

How quick you forget using tricks to hide the decline.

Egads! A 'trick' is clever way of doing something. Often this is a mathematical shortcut.

the "trick" was to truncate tree ring data @1960 so that the decline after 1960 was not shown in the IPCC report

Not true.

"Michael Mann: Phil Jones has publicly gone on record indicating that he was using the term "trick" in the sense often used by people, as in "bag of tricks", or "a trick to solving this problem ...", or "trick of the trade". In referring to our 1998 Nature article, he was pointing out simply the following: our proxy record ended in 1980 (when the proxy data set we were using terminates) so, it didn't include the warming of the past two decades. In our Nature article we therefore also showed the post-1980 instrumental data that was then available through 1995, so that the reconstruction could be viewed in the context of recent instrumental temperatures. The separate curves for the reconstructed temperature series and for the instrumental data were clearly labeled" Mann interview

So both, aka separate, curves were kept. Including the overlap since 1960. So this 'cherry picking data' is a bogus charge. BOTH data are there and clearly visable.

An aside on tree data. Tree data is not a perfect thermometer. It's a proxy coorelated event. There's a zone (my word) in the middle of the tree that appears to coorelate more strongly with temperature (even though it's really a reflection of the characteristics for that plant's growth which is more than temperature related.) And on each end the coorelation becomes weaker to the point (that at present) we don't have good mathematical ways to deal with the inaccuracies.

 

[Robert]

How quick you forget using tricks to hide the decline.

Egads! A 'trick' is clever way of doing something. Often this is a mathematical shortcut.

the "trick" was to truncate tree ring data @1960 so that the decline after 1960 was not shown in the IPCC report


IPCC and the “Trick”

1. This does nothing to change the fact that:

"temperatures are cherry picked by "scientists" to get the preferred conclusion."

is a bare-faced and as yet unrecanted lie.


2. It was explained on this very site at the time.

"Trick" and "Hide the decline" are covered in this video from over a year ago.



[youtube:2hu6rget]7nnVQ2fROOg[/youtube:2hu6rget]

 

[Robert]

I was just reading through that old thread. Quite amusing but, on the 11th of December, 2009, on page two of twelve, I responded to Ilwrath:

It's truly a shame how little factual information is available.

Indeed.
Despite all this fuss, has anyone actually found any evidence of deliberate lying in a published paper?

If so, I've yet to see it.

Cue Jim repeatedly claiming there was but repeatedly failing to show it.

By the end of the thread, the claims of deliberate lying have been more or less dismissed and the science generally vindicated by the Independent Climate Change Email Review, set up by the University of East Anglia, yet the same ignorant rubbish is now being regurgitated by the same, willfully ignorant people.

Reminds me of Amiga.org during the several years of "Saddam-al Qaeda-WMD" nonsense. People kept spouting the same, already-debunked shite, over and over and over again, until you could no longer tell who was trolling, who was lying and who was just a {bleep} idiot.

The more things change.......

 

[faethor]

1. This does nothing to change the fact that:
"temperatures are cherry picked by "scientists" to get the preferred conclusion."
is a bare-faced and as yet unrecanted lie.

I agree with your conclusion. The evidence provided (rather poorly I might add) was that it was a 'trick' to 'hide the decline'. The trick has nothing about temperatures as in direct measurements but are proxy temperature approximations derived from tree rings. These are indirect coorelating evidence not measured temperatures. As quoted and evidence it is a lie.

The arguement in short is -- let's use less precise indirect evidence over direct measurements. Using a lower quality information with larger margin of error to support one's point scientifically should put anyone that halfway loves science into a :roflmao:

 

[faethor]

@Redrumloa

I believe in one other thread you asked where all the heat was this year? Here's a short but good recap from Weather.com.

Not included there was Russia's estimation of 56K dead due to the heat this year. An increase in deaths of about 50% over last year.

....
Getting back to temperature predictions this week. I'm showing 74 at Miami right now and the predicted high was 73 and it's mid-day there.