Will certain industries, like movie theaters survive the Coronavirus?

Wayne

Wayne

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Was thinking about stocks again. Just more generally really. I initially bought into the Carnival Cruise Lines stock because I could honestly see it rebounding. I got lucky, yeah, yeah, yeah, but it's got me thinking about other industries may, or may not survive the next several months.

I'm a big fan of movies, but hate Hollywood in general. I find it enjoyable to go sit and watch a movie on the big screen, but I honestly don't see movie theaters as a concept surviving COVID-19.

Why?

In order to scramble to keep from going broke (like they could with hundreds of billions in the bank), Hollywood is being forced to scramble and -- in most cases -- embrace digital distribution methods, knowing that doing so will bring a sharp uptick in digital piracy.

Because of the current hysteria and accompanying stupidity, most studios have pushed the release of most movies back at least 4 to 6 months, and in some cases, a year.

Fast forward to now, the hysteria seems to be subsiding and most cities are slowly opening, including (though restricted), movie theaters. The problem for companies like Regal, AMC, and others, is that the studios have literally left them with nothing to fill the seats until probably the end of the year.

Will these movie theater chains survive, short of turning into retro theaters showing 1980's remixes? Somehow, I doubt it.

Thoughts?

What other industries might not survive?
 
You might be right. Cinemas in the UK have gone through major downturns in the past, most notably when TV became a thing. They used to be everywhere, then people got television sets and stopped going. My city of less than a million has literally dozens of disused cinemas from the early 20th century. The ones that weren't demolished mostly became bingo halls. Then that lost popularity too and they had to change use again. Some became actual theatres, some nightclubs, but mostly they just lie empty, their lovely old architecture slowly rotting away.

What other industries might not survive?
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One disused cinema near my house was a very successful concert venue for about 20 years, right up until lockdown. I don't know if or when it will open back up. I imagine the live music industry will take a long time to get back on its feet.
 
Here in my home town the cinema that usually showed blockbuster movies started to show arthouse movies because these had become more popular.
Regarding the fate of these industries, the expectations are grim as far as I can read, and it is expected that it will take down a substantial part of the economy with it, because of "economic scarring". But as the demand is so to say artificially held low, I have no idea how this will work out. Perhaps the history of the Spanish flu hold some clues how this will develop, as it's a pretty similar situation in a not so distant past.
 
metalman said:
Movie Theaters: how do they make their money?
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As I understand it, theaters don't even make 100% of their own concessions. So they end up paying 100% of the price of getting access to the movie, 90% or so of the ticket sales kicked back, AND a cut of their own concessions to the film distribution companies. (I don't know that for sure on the big first run chain theaters, but they do it to the $1 show theaters and other public movies that try to charge less than their recommended prices.)

It's amazing how much money theaters don't make. There is practically no margin. It's why all the theaters are constantly dirty as hell, don't have anyone who bothers to focus the lens, have at least one blown out speaker, and concessions are $10 for a giant popcorn and fountain drink. They truly can't afford to hire an extra person or two. The marginal cost of giving more popcorn or fountain drink is almost none, but if you give giant portions, you can charge more for that much and people aren't quite as upset. It's all just to scrape by enough to stay open.

Frankly, I don't see how any of them survived before COVID, let alone now that no one is going to come in, but they're still getting hit with access fees and all.

Like always, though, I think piracy is a bit of a red herring. I'm a pretty average guy pirate. I haven't bothered to pirate a movie in years. Why should I? I got plenty to watch on Netflix and Prime Video.

The big losses are going to come from the fact they get pennies for Netflix views compared to the dollars they were squeezing out of theaters. Not the 15 people left who care enough about seeing that one specific thing a few weeks early to pirate it.
 
I'm hoping that this revives drive-in movie theaters
for those of you who live in the US there's a company called Alamo Drafthouse. It's a great experience because they have comfy chairs, and you can order food. It's really like watching a film in a LARGE livingroom with a whole bunch of friends who you mostly have never met.

If they can duplicate this with a drive-in it would be great and as everyone is in a car "distancing" is automatic
 
cecilia said:
I'm hoping that this revives drive-in movie theaters
for those of you who live in the US there's a company called Alamo Drafthouse. It's a great experience because they have comfy chairs, and you can order food. It's really like watching a film in a LARGE livingroom with a whole bunch of friends who you mostly have never met.

If they can duplicate this with a drive-in it would be great and as everyone is in a car "distancing" is automatic
Click to expand...

I have been talking to someone who wants to open a drive-in theater

Problems:
Drive in theaters take lots of space
If you show 1st run movies, no revenue from tickets sales
people can easily bring in their own food and drinks
when running a theater you're really a restaurant with a limited menu,
selling beer makes you a bar, then you have to police minors or limit entry of minors

Doesnt it make more sense to just open a bar or restaurant and eliminate the non-revenue movies?
 
metalman said:
I have been talking to someone who wants to open a drive-in theater

Problems:
Drive in theaters take lots of space
If you show 1st run movies, no revenue from tickets sales
people can easily bring in their own food and drinks
when running a theater you're really a restaurant with a limited menu,
selling beer makes you a bar, then you have to police minors or limit entry of minors

Doesnt it make more sense to just open a bar or restaurant and eliminate the non-revenue movies?
Click to expand...

Locally we have one of the few last true drive in theaters in the country, that has been continually operating since 1963. I used to absolutely love it, but the quality went to the shitter some time around 2004 or so. If they'd fix the obvious issues, I'd like to go back. They run mostly first run movies, but do occasional classic older movies.

That said, I don't see them surviving. Massively large screen TVs are cheap these days and people are finding streaming cheaper and more relaxing. Theaters got too greedy, or the industry in general you could say. $13.50 for a single normal ticket? $22 for a popcorn and drink? My local drive in is better than this, but again quality issues and a declining market in general probably dooms it.

Drive-Ins Are Having Their Moment, but They Can’t Save Theaters
 
Miami Dolphins to turn Hard Rock Stadium into drive-in movie theater

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A tiny independent theater I frequent apparently now has a popup drive in theater somewhere close to their regular one. I can't find any details or photos of it though despite them selling tickets for upcoming shows.
 
ilwrath said:
Inside the stadium? That is pretty cool. One of the many failed attempts to gain some value from the Lion's old Silverdome involved using the parking lots as a drive-ins and projecting movies onto different sides of the building. It was absurd. And apparently too far ahead of it's time. Wish I had a pic, now. Lol
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It is a pretty cool concept. When I first heard about it I thought maybe screens in the parking area. But finding out it is inside actually makes more sense when I think through it. The stadium has always had the ability to bring cars in (*). They've had monster truck shows there in the past. It makes more sense because they have those enormous "Jumbotrons" and sound system already in place. To put the infrastructure in the parking area would be a huge upfront cost in something that may be temporary. The details I've heard, mainly in that article, sounds intriguing. Also the idea of having sports rewind events could be fun. Replay a historic Dolphins game and have former players on hand to speak. My only concern is cost. With the limited "seating" available, the cost must be quite high per ticket. We'll see.

* - I have an ex-boss that used to be the stadium manager for Joe Robbie / Dolphins Stadium (currently branded Hard Rock Stadium) in the 00's. During this time it was also the Florida Marlins stadium. He even has a world series ring. The funny(?) story is not about the World series, but a regular season game. One end has an opening where vehicles can drive through. Prior to a game he saw a Porsche parked at the front of this opening with the driver standing by it. He went down to tell the driver he had to move the car. The driver starting cursing and MF'ing him, cursing him up one side and down the other. My old boss decided it wasn't worth making a bigger scene and walked away.

The driver? Sammy Sosa.
 
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