2012 on the horizon?

Wayne

Wayne

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Hi guys,

Yes. I liked the movie 2012. Let's get that out of the way and let the laughs and sighs subside.

That being said, most of you know I'm one of those people who generally won't close the subject on things I'm not sure about. Those include religion, "global warming", 2012 stuff and other things that we -- as human beings -- cannot either prove, or disprove canonically.

We all know how everyone here feels about the hot button of "global warming" and I'm not about to disagree with anyone. I don't know enough about it to make rational logical statements, and frankly, I'm not sure I care.

The same goes for the "end of the world" philosophy surrounding 2012. I'm not gifted with future sight. I frankly don't know what, if anything, may or may not happen two years from now.

What strikes me today however is that -- global warming aside -- this past six months has been some of the strongest weather I can ever remember, with massive storms killing people from the US Northeast to Russia. It even snowed in freakin' Florida from what Jim said... Hmmph..

Top that with the fact that globally we've now seen not one, but two of the most devastating earthquakes on record, and I have to start to wonder whether the trend will continue unabated, getting worse as time goes on, or whether this is all just cyclical?

Those of you who loathe the idea of "global warming" will automatically and defensibly argue that this is normal global cycle. Since we don't have global records of weather or related events going back centuries, who am I to argue?

I do however think that the idea that the Earth's weather *is* changing as a whole is getting rather irrefutable, but would love to know what everyone else really thinks -- setting aside Al Gore for a moment -- about the situation.

Given the rising stem of weather incidents over the last few years, I have to ponder whether or not an ancient and extinct culture might not have known more than the current "smarter than thou" science has pinpointed..

(All I can think about as I write this is Dr. McCoy in a modern hospital shouting "DIALYSIS! What is this, the middle ages?")
 
Ehm, I don't think that's what Wayne was asking.

@Wayne:

Interesting post and I, despite my ramblings on here, am of a reasonably similar position to you.

I see the weather changing too. The geological events I don't know enough about to say if they're any more common than they were historically but I think it unlikely that an ancient civilisation knew that much more about predicting such things that they could accurately predict the end of days. Having said this, I can't say so for certain so maybe you're onto soething. ;-)
 
Luckily I think 2012 predictions and AGW are 2 different events. I also disagree that we know for certain that natural disasters are increasing in frequency and intensity when it comes to timescales longer than a generation.

When it comes to 2012 and the Mayans, it is my understanding it is supposed to correlate to some celestial event. Something to do with the alignment of the earth to the center of the solar system, or something or other. I don't put too much weight into it other than watching the odd History Channel special. I am far more worried about the consequences of Iran nuking Israel or the M.A.D. after bin laden smuggling a suitcase nuke into Washington DC.
 
You know what? If I die soon, be it in 2012, because of global warming or a terrorist attack, car accident, or just naturally, I want to die happily, without this omnipotent nagging.
Just be peace with nature.
 
That's great it starts with an earthquake. Birds, snakes, and aeroplanes. Lenny Bruce is not afraid. Eye of a hurricane... Sorry.

The enlightened Christians know won't make it to 2012...
May 21, 2011 is judgement day. Oct 21, 2011 is the end of the world. Seriously use google and get a good chuckle.

Some numerologists fear the date 11/11/11. Cuz afterall the other duplicates like 6/6/6 failed so certainly this one will stick.

And of course this makes prefect sense the God of love and compassion will bring his wrath in 2011. His will must be done so will be done prior to 2012 to ensure that the Maya God's can't get their will done.

The real truth is when the non-euclidean monolith of the sleeping Cthulu appears that is when humanity ends driven to madness.
 
So since the world is gonna end either next year or the year after, does that mean I can max out my visa and just live like a king for two years? Hmmm... I think I can make this end of the world stuff work for me.
 
Lots of dates have been predicted for the Apocalypse.

year 1000

Seventh-day Adventists predicted: 1843, then 1874, revised to ..1878,
Jehovah's Witnesses: 1877, "October 1914", then 1925, then revised to 1975, ....

Y2K

December 21 or December 23, 2012 is said to be the end-date of a 5,125-year-long cycle in the Mayan Long Count calendar. Mayan archaeologists say the Maya did not make any prophetic declarations. The Mayan apocalypse predictions come from current "New Age beliefs" that the ending of the Mayan calendar cycle will correspond to a global "consciousness shift".

According to Isaac Newton's calculations, the Apocalypse will not occur before 2060 A.D.
 
metalman said:
Lots of dates have been predicted for the Apocalypse.

year 1000

Seventh-day Adventists predicted: 1843, then 1874, revised to ..1878,
Jehovah's Witnesses: 1877, "October 1914", then 1925, then revised to 1975, ....
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The apostles believed that Jesus would return in their lifetime. The apostles asked Jesus what would be the signs of the end of age. Jesus gave them a description of some signs. In addition, Jesus told them the 12 would reside over the 12 tribes of Isreal. To this end after Judas committed suicide the apostles elected Mattias to take his place. The reason for this was they needed 12 for the return of Jesus and subsequent rule of the Isrealites. So Christians have gotten their predictions of the end of the world wrong from inception.

BTW there's no such thing as the rapture in the bible. It is a modern construct from around the turn of the 19th century.

Nostradomus hasn't successfully given us any useful predictions. But, people continue to claim him right anyhow. His prophecies end around 3797.
 
Wayne said:
Hi guys,

Yes. I liked the movie 2012. Let's get that out of the way and let the laughs and sighs subside.

That being said, most of you know I'm one of those people who generally won't close the subject on things I'm not sure about. Those include religion, "global warming", 2012 stuff and other things that we -- as human beings -- cannot either prove, or disprove canonically.......
Click to expand...

A reasonable question Wayne. I've already relayed my thoughts on the film 2012 so I won't rehash them here. ;-)

So what do we know (about the weather / Earth)? Like many others here might say, not much. Depending on whose records you wish to count with regards to climate and geological events, we only have solid evidence for a (few) hundred or a few thousand years. The trouble is (IMO) none of these accepted records present a "complete picture" with regards to what science now theorizes / debates. We also have to consider that whatever amount of data we have (historically) it is a mere "scratch of the surface" when you consider that Earth is estimated to be 4 billion years old. We can seemingly establish some patterns in some areas of climate but the types of meteorological data that we use to present currently accepted fact just don't go back far enough (in "complete picture") to tell us what is going to happen much beyond next week. All that being said, I do find it both amusing and interesting when the Farmer's Almanac seems to be as accurate as the weatherman, sometimes more accurate.

With regards to 2012, as someone else here has already pointed out, the all knowing and feared Mayan (long count) calendar in question ends in 2012 but another long count picks up (see NASA explanation). So, the stars of your movie will still be able to collect a paycheck.

So where does that leave my opinion? Well, as you might have gathered from above, I am a skeptic of 2012 being "the end" and I still question "global warming" as defined and pushed by Al Gore. That being said, I do not ignore what is occurring now. I absolutely think we should be studying this possibility as well as related weather events. I do not question that we may be seeing some sort of global weather / geological event but I don't think that anyone (pro or con global warming) has enough evidence (yet) to say what we are seeing, how it will evolve and if this is permanent or just part of the pattern in our 4 billion year old planet's weather.

Regards,
Ltstanfo
 
I can't say I'm really worried about 2012, or any other date within the next century or two, minimum.
Sure... Life on Earth will come to an end someday, but I that's not likely for a LONG LONG LONG LONG time (millions of years)... Now, of course, it's very possible that Earth may undergo some changes that make it much less hospitable within a timeframe my mind can comprehend. But, even then, evidence leads more to the conclusion that it will be a series of events that play out over thousands of years, rather just a cataclysm with little warning.

As for warming/climate change, I'd say it's a threat seriously worth studying. It's a possibility we are seeing the start of a threatening event. Of course, even taking the worst case scenario I can think of (a Dinosaur Extinction level of change) keep in mind, that even though we are taught they died out in the blink of an eye... That "blink of an eye" actually took thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years. It's only "quick" compared to the millions of years they roamed. So even the "fast" event that killed them most likely took longer to play out than all of recorded human history to this point.

It's fascinating to think about, but I'm not "worried" in the least.
 
And now time for some facts: Are the Haitian and Chilean Earthquakes Related?

While most seismologists agree that the Haitian quake was simply too small to have played a role in the recent shock, the question of whether larger earthquakes can cause lasting global reverberations is a major controversy. Over the long term, the earth averages one 8-magnitude earthquake per year and slightly less than one 9-magnitude quake every decade. But they don't seem to be evenly spaced. There have been five earthquakes of 9.0 magnitude or greater since 1900, four of which occurred between 1950 and 1964. The fifth was the Sumatra quake that triggered the 2004 tsunami. Some scientists believe that the most powerful earthquakes—the 2004 quake was 1,000 times more powerful than the one in Haiti—may contribute to a global release of built-up tectonic stress. If this theory is correct, both the Haitian and Chilean earthquakes were caused, in part, by the Sumatran quake, and there may be more to come. (Or the alternative theory: It's more or less random.)
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About every 400 to 500 years the bit of coast that I live on slips. The resulting earthquake is about a 9. The last one of these big quakes happened 310 years ago. There is a small chance I could live long enough to see the next "Big One".

Yellowstone Caldera has blown up catastrophically several times over history. It goes super volcano in periods of 1 million to 600,000 years. The last super eruption was 640,000 years ago which killed animals up to 1000 miles away (from the dust fall). It could go again at any time. We probably won't live to see it but there is an outside chance that we might.

It was thought until recently that interglacials were about 12,000 years long. Since our latest interglacial (the one we are in) is 11,400 years old it seemed that we should be heading into an ice-age soon. Then again it could be that we are on a long cycle like the last interglacial. Or we might not be, depending on what the sun does. Maybe it WILL get icey again soon. We just don't know.

Pushing further out we will one day run into another giant impacter. Things here on earth will get deadly for a while then the little critters that survive will have to start all over replenishing the planet.

And in half a billion years plants will run out of biologically available carbon with which to grow and life will dwindle away leaving the planet mostly dead by the time the sun expands and boils away the oceans in a few billion years time.

There are lots of massive cyclic killing events that come round from time to time. They can be bad like we've never known but but not historically out of the ordinary.

20 generations of mosquitoes can live and die without ever seeing a winter.
 
ltstanfo said:
All that being said, I do find it both amusing and interesting when the Farmer's Almanac seems to be as accurate as the weatherman, sometimes more accurate.
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I've heard this claim before. Never seen any evidence to support or reject it. As an experiment I checked NOAA and the FA last summer to see what they predicted for winter 2009-2010 my area of the states. Turns out NOAA was more accurate this time.

So where does that leave my opinion? Well, as you might have gathered from above, I am a skeptic of 2012 being "the end" and I still question "global warming" as defined and pushed by Al Gore. That being said, I do not ignore what is occurring now. I absolutely think we should be studying this possibility as well as related weather events. I do not question that we may be seeing some sort of global weather / geological event but I don't think that anyone (pro or con global warming) has enough evidence (yet) to say what we are seeing, how it will evolve and if this is permanent or just part of the pattern in our 4 billion year old planet's weather.
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If 85% of our universe is dark matter then we're in the minority. It appears life that communicates is fairly rare too. Humans appear to be the exception not the rule. But, yet humans are a natural outcropping of the particular random events along the way. So when we do what we do it's all natural right? See ifxed GW is natural.
:lol:
 
*shrug*

The last time there was a major earthquake like that in Turkey there was an accompanying earthquake in Greece a month or so later. I remember this because I was there. That was the first time (and only time I think) I witnessed something on CNN and in real life at the same time. Anyway, strong earthquakes are common in that area and don't be surprised if there's one in Greece some time soon - which is of course all they need right now (and by that I mean, natural disaster relief from the EU of course :wink: ).
 
Wayne said:
Three weeks, three major Earthquakes. Anyone else want to rethink the idea of coincidence?

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/03 ... tml?hpt=T2
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You know, the thing about Turkey is that the are always getting earthquakes and yet all their buildings are always falling down - and a 6 isn't really that big. Haiti's earthquake was about 100 times stronger and Chile's was 1000 time stronger. Chile builds for earthquakes because they know they are in an active region.

As to clusters... I'm not surprised though it still seems to be the established lore in the science that earthquakes are generally wholly separate events. In that they are unpredictable and you can't say when and where they are going to occur then it's true enough to say that but whenever you get a big quake it's plain to see from the seismic activity that it takes a while for the ringing to stop and all the stresses to settle out.

Each fault or plate boundary builds up it's own stresses over time and the closer they are to critical, the less perturbation it takes to set them off. A strong quake somewhere in the world could be enough to tip the scales, however, it's not cut and dried. At considerable distances local effects tend to be dominant, so immediate triggering isn't likely but as the relieved stress redistributes itself. It's like dropping sand grains onto a pile. Sometimes nothing happens, sometimes some sand slips, sometimes a lot.
 
Glaucus said:
*shrug*
strong earthquakes are common in that area and don't be surprised if there's one in Greece some time soon - which is of course all they need right now (and by that I mean, natural disaster relief from the EU of course :wink: ).
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Won't the Greek disaster relief union then just go on strike until they get a raise??
 
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