Banks prepare for the return of the drachma

The Greeks are delusional:

Greeks embrace new myths about the euro

Solemn warnings from abroad that Athens cannot stay in the euro while rejecting the terms attached to the billions offered to pull Greece out of its financial hole are widely disbelieved in a land that considers itself the envy of foreigners.

However bad their prospects, many Greeks seem to think that since money to bail them out was found in the past, it will be found again, whatever politicians say.

Nor do they believe that Europe will simply cast them loose, despite growing signs that Greece is heading for the exit from the single currency and towards the economic and social catastrophe that would follow.
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When the Persians invaded Greece the Oracle at Delphi told Greeks that they would find sanctuary behind wooden walls. This lead many Greeks to barricad themselves behind the wooden fort surrounding the Acropolis. Those Greeks ended up dead. The modern day belief that they can forgo the austerity and stay within the Eurozone is just another myth with a similar fate, even if only metaphorically.

Greece's problem really isn't financial, it's political. Greece has no leadership right now, all options are bunk. You have guys like Tspiras which promises to keep Greece in the Euro AND to reject the bailout terms. Crazy as it seems, there are clearly a lot of people who believe this crap. Greeks need to decide their future based on facts. If they want to exit the Euro, fine, but they should do so with a full understanding of what that means. What seems to be happening is that they wish to keep the Euro but are likely to lose it because they are being duped by certain politicians who are willing to promise them whatever it takes to get elected. Very sad.
 
Robert said:
That's the trouble with democracy; if you let the majority make the decisions....
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Actually, in this case, there is no majority, just 32 different parties pulling in different directions.
 
Those Greeks who believe that the EU would cave and give Greece the bailout funds even if Greece refuses the terms of the bailout. Had a little conversation with my aunt and uncle about this on the weekend. My aunt was under the delusion that Greece would never be allowed to default as it would bring the entire EU down, and thus Greece has some kind of great bargaining chip that the former administration failed to exploit. My uncle tends to think quite the opposite, as do I and I hope a majority of Greeks, that it's highly unlikely that the EU, Germany in particular, would cave and hand over hundreds of billions of dollars to Greece without any form of stipulations. I also don't think Greece's default would cause that much of a problem for the EU at the moment as they've had time to build defenses.
 
Glaucus said:
Those Greeks who believe that the EU would cave and give Greece the bailout funds even if Greece refuses the terms of the bailout. Had a little conversation with my aunt and uncle about this on the weekend. My aunt was under the delusion that Greece would never be allowed to default as it would bring the entire EU down, and thus Greece has some kind of great bargaining chip that the former administration failed to exploit. My uncle tends to think quite the opposite, as do I and I hope a majority of Greeks, that it's highly unlikely that the EU, Germany in particular, would cave and hand over hundreds of billions of dollars to Greece without any form of stipulations. I also don't think Greece's default would cause that much of a problem for the EU at the moment as they've had time to build defenses.
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actually they have more bargaining chips with the us and china than they do at home... too many media outlets say as goes greece so goes the world... wouldnt hurt us or china to kick a few 100 billion that way to fend off a "visual collapse" right now... they will try to contain this from imploding until after the elections...
 
Glaucus said:
Those Greeks who believe that the EU would cave and give Greece the bailout funds even if Greece refuses the terms of the bailout.
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You know, they are somewhat correct. They really do have the EU banks in a hard place. Remember the old Jean Paul Getty quote:
"If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem."

Well, it's the EU central bank's problem. There's no knowing how far they'll go but the EU stands to lose more than Greece does from a failed Euro.
 
To some degree that's true, but even if Greece defaults, they'll do their best to control it. And even if they don't, Greece will be back to negotiating with the IMF to get more loans with more conditions just like Argentina did. I have no doubt that they'll find ways to make their money back. Then there's the credit default swaps.
 
List of countries by GD

The Greek's are delusional, the only bargaining chip they posses is making some EU bureaucrat in Brussels look bad, and their political dream's.

The a Greek default is barely a economic blip on the world economy.

The problem for the EU is Ireland, Spain, and Italy. Those economies are too large to bail out, and will result in the collapse of the EU, and so its probably better for the EU to make an example of Greece now.
 
FluffyMcDeath said:
This is a test - this is ONLY a test.
Test of Bloomberg's listing of Drachmas leaks. Bills are being quietly printed. Just in case.
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Do you see this as some kind of indicator? I don't. The real indicator is watching all the different parties ripping each other apart as if there's some great reward for the winner. Fact is they're all losers and are a great embarrassment. My only hope is that Greece wins a game or two at the Euro cup because that's the only chance Greece has at good news this year.
 
Glaucus said:
Do you see this as some kind of indicator?
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It's a secondary or derivative indicator. It's a sign that some one else (whose business it is) is seeing an indicator that this is a possible outcome that they need to be prepared for.

The real indicator is watching all the different parties ripping each other apart as if there's some great reward for the winner.
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Nah. That's theatre - it's entertaining but it doesn't necessarily mean much.
 
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