... if Boris and his cohorts are not merely posturing, as most reasonable people expect...
Of course that would change things but, as you say, seems an unlikely outcome as things stand.
As an aside, Johnson is making his first visit to Scotland as PM today and is
promising sweeties if we play nice.
A no-deal Brexit may very well be enough to make people vote for independence.
It may well be but I'm not so sure.
I say that as someone who has been in favour of independence all my life so I may be overly pessimistic but I've watched the movement grow, peak then wane, and the current trajectory seems to be plateauing at best, if not downward.
Over the last 40 years, it went from an insignificant bunch of campaigners to a minor party to a minority government in favour to a majority government in favour and peaked with the 2014 referendum.
It has since regressed to minority government in favour and seems to be continuing to decline, despite numerous open goals to increase support. The main problem as far as I can see, is that the SNP, rather than reaching out to the 55% who voted no in 2014, have instead been actively alienating them. These tactics are beyond idiotic but five years later, they are still flogging the same horse. Furthermore, since 2014, the greater independence movement has fragmented and is now characterised by infighting and a bunch of unhinged and loudly whining cranks who freak out every time they see a Union flag on anything they claim should be Scottish.
It's pathetic, depressing and turns people away.
I'm still in favour of Scotland leaving the UK but I want nothing to do with those crackpots and can no longer bring myself to vote SNP.
No deal brexit could perhaps overcome all of this but:
a) no-deal still seems unlikely.
b) even if it happens, I doubt it would be enough.
The question I've been asking myself is, would I take a no-deal brexit if it meant Scotland leaving the UK?
On balance, yes, I would, even though I have lots of friends living in England who really would not want either of those things. Alas, I'm a selfish bastard.