Brexit!! Yeah, it's a thing now..

[FluffyMcDeath]

The trouble with that is a large number of people voted to leave thinking it will indeed stop migrant workers and the current government are very much playing to that gallery.

Fair enough (though I doubt it - they may talk that way (I wouldn't know - even though I've just been in the UK and I'm currently driving around Ireland I don't have much time for the news) I suspect that they are still pro cheap labour and therefore pro migrant workers. Of course, without the EU setting the rules the UK people are in theory able to elect the government that sets the policies they want - again, - in theory.

It's not the EU who will stop them, but the UK might. This would, of course, be economically suicidal but it's exactly what a lot of people voted for.

I don't know that it would be economic suicide. It might impact certain industries - but there are other, I think more important threats to the economy, particularly the mathematics of private money creation, the the duel problems of the increasing need for energy and the dwindling supply plus increasing problems from continued usage. Not addressing those could more accurately be described as economic suicide.
In short:
a) I don't think that curtailing cheap migrant labour will be economic suicide. Perhaps you could lay out the mechanism that would result in that collapse.
b) I don't think any government of the UK, Conservative or the current colour of Labour or even UKIP, would actually go ahead and starve the industries that are dependant on virtual slave labour.

 

[Robert]

Not the Wimbledon strawberries? Say it aint so, Boris!
Wimbledon strawberry farmer warns of post-Brexit staff shortage
Kent grower who relies on EU workers calls for mechanism to allow seasonal fruit pickers to continue to work in Britain

 

[Robert]

Vote Leave chief who created £350m NHS lie on bus admits leaving EU could be 'an error'
Dominic Cummings also described the referendum as a 'dumb idea' - shaping up to be a 'guaranteed debacle'

 

[metalman]

 

[metalman]

 

[Robert]

Vote Leave chief who created £350m NHS lie on bus admits leaving EU could be 'an error'
Dominic Cummings also described the referendum as a 'dumb idea' - shaping up to be a 'guaranteed debacle'

That imaginary £350m extra a week for the NHS would have to be LOT more anyway when it looks like the UK's initial payment just to leave the club will be around £50 billion.

This despite the foreign secretary claiming the EU could "whistle" for any payment and gullible voters believing that too.

 

[ScapeGoat]

If they actually pay that amount the Tories will be screwed at the next General Election.

 

[Robert]

If they actually pay that amount the Tories will be screwed at the next General Election.

There seem to be three options:
1) Pay it.
2) Leave with no trade agreements.
3) Don't leave.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

There seem to be three options:
1) Pay it.
2) Leave with no trade agreements.
3) Don't leave.

The answer is 2.
Don't make the mistake Greece made thinking they can talk to these guys. Walk. Your business is more important to them then they want to let on. There's a lot of bluffing going on.

 

[Robert]

The answer is 2.

I'm not so sure there is a "correct" answer.

There's a lot of bluffing going on.

Yes, on both sides and some of the UK's "bluffs" (I'd call them lies but, meh, semantics) have recently started unravelling.

 

[JoBBo]

Yes, on both sides and some of the UK's "bluffs" (I'd call them lies but, meh, semantics) have recently started unravelling.

Care to point out any serious bluffing by official EU representatives?

 

[Robert]

Care to point out any serious bluffing by official EU representatives?

Can't point to any serious ones, to be fair, although the implication that there will be no trade at all without a deal strikes me as a bluff.

That said, if the thrust of your point is that it's the UK doing the majority of the bluffing, I completely agree.

 

[JoBBo]

Don't make the mistake Greece made thinking they can talk to these guys. Walk. Your business is more important to them then they want to let on.

I am afraid you are completely misreading the situation.

If the United Kingdom were to get a sweetheart deal that would allow them to leave the union at zero cost without having to honor any of the financial commitments it had made during its membership (and that would possibly even grant them continued wide access to the EU markets without being asked to let those evil continental Europeans freely live and work in the UK), how long do you think it would take for other EU member states to either seriously consider leaving as well or to continously use it as a semi-credible threat during future bargaining sessions? When the entire European Union's existence is at stake, who cares that the EU economy might shrink a bit as the result of a hard Brexit? There is much more to lose by setting a 'bad example' than by harming trade with the UK.

 

[JoBBo]

Can't point to any serious ones, to be fair, although the implication that there will be no trade at all without a deal strikes me as a bluff.

Has anybody claimed so? As far as I remember, the EU's stance has been that there will be no new 'trade deal" whatsoever before both involved parties have come to an agreement (for the most part) how the current relationship will be dissolved, which seems perfectly sensible to me.

There is even trade between EU member states and North Korea so the assumption that all trade between the UK and the remaining EU would completely stop is beyond silly, of course. In case of a hard Brexit, there would be additional tariffs and added administrative costs for trade with the EU which is expected to lower the amount of exports and imports but not to stop all trade between the UK and the EU.

 

[Robert]

Has anybody claimed so?

No, that's why I said 'implication'.

There is even trade between EU member states and North Korea so the assumption that all trade between the UK and the remaining EU would completely stop is beyond silly, of course. In case of a hard Brexit, there would be additional tariffs and added administrative costs for trade with the EU which is expected to lower the amount of exports and imports but not to stop all trade between the UK and the EU.

Again, agreed on all of that.

 

[Robert]

I'm your prime minister now

ARLENE Foster has informed the UK that she is the prime minister now and she has a few changes in mind.

The DUP leader cancelled Britain’s Brexit deal yesterday and promised that is really just the start.

She said: “I don’t like what you’ve done with this country. There aren’t enough Union Jacks up. None of you are British enough. That’s changing.
“Why aren’t you farmers? Farming’s an honest profession. No time for idle hands. Closer to God. Let’s have you all farmers now.
“There’s no deal with the EU because Ireland’s in the EU and we’re not making a deal with them. You can’t trust them. They’re bastards. You don’t know them like I do.
“Which areas are your Catholics in? What do you mean they’re not all in one area? That’s ridiculous. You want to get to be rounding them up. Chop chop.”

Theresa May said: “It’s possible I may have made a bad deal without thinking it through.”

 

[JoBBo]

Scotland's Nicola Sturgeon pivoting towards "independence light":

It has been suggested that the UK might be prepared to accept that Northern Ireland effectively remain in the EU single market after Brexit. (..) Amid speculation that Northern Ireland could be given a special deal, Ms Sturgeon questioned why other parts of the UK should not - a position echoed by London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones.

https://twitter.com/x/status/937675437764960257

 

[Robert]

Scotland's Nicola Sturgeon pivoting towards "independence light":

https://twitter.com/x/status/937675437764960257

She's right, of course.

Unfortunately for Nicola (and people like me who favour independence) her stock and that of her party has been on a downward trajectory for some time now.

 

[Robert]

I'm your prime minister now

ARLENE Foster has informed the UK that she is the prime minister now and she has a few changes in mind.

The DUP leader cancelled Britain’s Brexit deal yesterday and promised that is really just the start.

Slightly more seriously:

Why is the Irish border a stumbling block for Brexit?

Inside the EU, both Ireland and Northern Ireland are part of the single market and customs union so share the same regulations and standards, allowing a soft or invisible border between the two.

Britain’s exit from the EU – taking Northern Ireland with it – risks a return to a hard or policed border. The only way to avoid this post-Brexit is for regulations on both sides to remain more or less the same in key areas including food, animal welfare, medicines and product safety.

Early drafts of the agreement Britain hoped to get signed off on Monday said there would be “no divergence” from EU rules that “support north-south cooperation”, later changed to “continued alignment” in a formulation that appeared to allow for subtle divergences.

But it raised new questions about who would oversee it and how disputes might be resolved. It was also clearly still a step too far for the DUP.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

I am afraid you are completely misreading the situation.

You are kind of right, but it's kind of irrelevant. This is basically a dynamic of gangs and alliances dressed up in laws - just like all international relations. Rules are for the weak since those are the only ones rules can be enforced against. yes, it's true that allowing one party to leave without consequence will be damaging to the power and prestige of the influence brokers of that union but both sides know that. Britain may have a different opinion of whether it cares about the continuance of the union. How much harm can the union do to the UK if they don't get their way? That depends but at the same time the businesses of the European Union were hurting and complaining about the anti-Russian sanctions have to add anti-UK sanctions it won't impact the unellected EU leadership but it could get the ear of the elected national governments who could also chose to leave. The EU isn't completely free to act as it wishes and a balance has to be struck.
The ruling classes of the UK will be in similar tension with their business class and the politicians (who listen to the business classes but also have to get voted in by the mob). The only really big question is what are you willing to go to war over. Once you get to that stage the little people usually fall into line pretty quickly.
I understand that the politicians and ruling classes have to spin their justifications and foundational myths but humans have been trading since forever and if you raise the barriers too high then you just get more smuggling and if you make the market too hard to play in then you get a black one. I think a lot of the dancing around that's going on is just the guys on top trying to keep their balance as the pile starts to shift - perhaps because they built it too high and/or because it's mostly made of hot air.