Fannie Mae common stock

ok so now for the tie in... my buddy jorge works for a finance company that was created from the ashes of the other finance companies, only rebranded, and as such his company doesn't have a proven track record that meets the criteria to work with fnma. easing the "what constitutes a good track record standards" is one such regulation the industry is clamoring for ... secondly jorge is no fool, a house sold under contract for deed is a home sold... even if the contract don't work in his favor in the beginning... letting the payments slide until they are refurbished or rented means he's a good deal of time to count the home as sold, without the "lot buyer" being in default...purchaser meets the "in compliance" requirements, even tho they've received no money. they get credit for the good solid work they've done and they are moving product. they can kick that can down the road for a yearish, give or take a month, but really no more than that. the rest s pressure and time my friend pressure and time, the warning valves will steam off every now and again, and they are neither hard to find nor a really big secret...
 
ok... so fnma is losing market shares to the other banks, mostly JP Morgan tho. JP Morgan has some public issues lately so they are going to come under scrutiny, the public will lose just enough faith in them they will eagerly turn the responsibility of these loans to smaller companies. deregulation will pass and the boom will be on. when i first went house hunting was over a year ago and the game was already in full swing so it'd be fair to guess that they went right back at it, at the very least the year before. truth be told it was probably the year before that, right about the time they found out that dodd frank would be watered down and holder announced no prosecutions... so... remember what i said about the three yr time frame for default, and it's association with rule relaxation... what worked in the 80's, and the 90's and the 00's will work again...and they haven't found a way to drag it out longer because people get sick of it after awhile and they can no longer entice people after so many get burned, they are now asking for relaxation which means they need to expand the ponzi already to cover these already hidden losses and to generate more income...they do get down payment money and escrow funds... etc... it's the only real cash they have... the rest is an illusion of holdings that don't really exist save but on paper... a home value, based on an inspectors shoddy assessment, under contract to a bank for a sum of money the house will never be worth...
 
when to to actually bail and how to know... as i've said... hiccups are ever present and don't signal demise, but they can be destructive to the investor, especially if you bail at the bottom of one to "cut your losses". anticipating no rebound. now... this is how you see it happen... and this is an opinion shared by at least my father and i, and it has produced success... when banks start getting worried that they are getting under water, the first thing they do is stop exporting cash out of the door... that always, always; hits the spec home market first. the banks cut that market supply off every which way they can and the reason why is, they've got tons of stuff in reserve that they have been semi foreclosing on in secret; and just as soon as they can kick people out they need someone else to buy it... they'll raise rates on new home loans and at the same time you'll be seeing the inbred subsidiaries offering better deals for used houses... of course all overvalued... no money down or whatever mantra works... now here's the thing... look at the percentage of loans that are going to new construction. look at the percentage that goes to spec homes. look at the percentage going to manufacturing,warehouse and farm. i'm going to find you a pie chart i promise... all of those combined don't even make up 25-30% of the market (just off the top of my head). the rest are the hodge podge of loans available from good credit ones to the worst credit (payday loans of real estate).
 
all of those are usually secure loans, farmer borrows against his land to build a hay shed... or whatever... business is collateralized by it's going concern and it's tax return, new construction is a good credit loan that an eligible person gets from their banker because they have good credit and can actually afford to build their dream home... a certain amount of these loans will be mortgages taken out with the home itself as collateral having already been paid off... banks don't make money off people who repay home loans, the real money is in people who don't. when i was a kid, my dad made land payments every month... the payments were x amount plus interest... plus interest... the payment plans as structured now due to rule changes are you pay the lender his interest first and a minimal amount is kicked toward the principle, that gives you only the slightest of legal claim to the property even after ten years of payment, and if for some reason you couldn't pay any longer economy sours or whatever... the only thing you've "bought" so far is the banks time. when the unsecured finance companies start showing drastic gains beyond the first year... the game is almost over...
 
the smoking gun is a pension fund... the banks have offered off by now those "promise to be solid loans" off to bigger banks to help absorb the loss, you'll notice that they start bundling them with fewer secured loans as time goes by... high risk means high reward and these fellers will doublespeak their way into pension funds and 401K's, you can hide the losses for about another year that way, and they do. so now at two years ish from now this is what i see... fnma will absorb a lionshare of these bundled and really, really, scandalous loans. they will be profitable. the next wave of foreclosures won't be as easy to hide... but they will... i believe they will change bankruptcy law to say that a victim of the prior home mortgage crisis can't have that held against them. it would be an obvious band aid and create a flood of new re- eligible buyers. and it would renew confidence in the market again... somehow that renewed confidence makes those trash loans look sexy and the pensions will buy them up and cities will buy them to secure bonds...so here we are... the banks are deliberately killing the spec market, by this time, five years passed, and two years from today, they've been pawning these high risk loans off on pensions and cities, and staving off announcing major losses by backroom accounting chicanery... remember they decide when the legal dept. issues you, their complaint about default... half the people try and work something out so it'll put off a percentage of the defaults from foreclosure untl the really willy nilly loans they are making to me three yrs into it, come due on those (rate of default is high and in first 18 months). and since thats where they are now. at least until deregulation, coming soon, offers them a new consumer base and short term saves them. mini bailout they always get one... at least one, before the crash. but the bad loans are piling up. and getting real hard to hide... you can go to almost any state and get foreclosure records from the court house on a county by county basis... if you don't have a jorge... he seems to know what they are already. they are consistent when they aren't rising.
 
charts.dll


okay now here is your proof

pretty big uptick in June of 2012 always is, tornado and tropical storm season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2012

big drop in July

http://www.masslive.com/politics/in...en_favorability_numbers_rising_as_voters.html

august steady rising also due to severe storms

Octobers drastic rise is no surprise...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Sandy

mid-november nosedive

Elizabeth Warren's Big Win Is A Crushing Defeat For Big Banks


http://www.forbes.com/sites/halahto...s-big-win-is-a-crushing-defeat-for-big-banks/

december growth as expected with a big spike right after this

"It is past time that we stop talking about accountability and start demanding it from those who broke the system," she wrote.
Warren has also been nominated to serve on the Senate's Aging Committee and the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions. The assignments are still subject to approval from the full Democratic caucus and a resolution from the full Senate.
here she has signaled to the banks that if they want the pension funds to buy their cruddy loans they are going to have to go through her... and just take their public scolding ... you can see clearly here, just how reflexive the market really is...
 
charts.dll


lets look at it from another angle...

may saw a huge plummet... what happened?

Borrowers Face Big Delays in Refinancing Mortgages


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303459004577364102737025584.html

30-year mortgage rate hits another record low

http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/24/real_estate/mortgage-rates/index.htm

they cant give houses away so what do they do? drop the rates... again... and it continued on

until june... well why is that?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-30/ex-citigroup-executive-gets-8-years-for-embezzlement.html

Citigroup’s treasury finance department funds loans and other business transactions within the bank and Foster supervised the department’s derivatives unit, according to his criminal complaint. The unit processed payments related to trades of derivatives, including swaps, according to court papers.
Foster joined Citigroup, which is ranked third by assets among U.S. banks, in 1999 and left voluntarily in January 2011, according to a person familiar with his employment.
uh oh so it was going on two years ago still... hope you find all of this as fascinating as i do... lol.. which i obviously do... pops calls it the drywall index...;)
 
A tour de force my man. I am ready to buy the five step solution you are selling for only 15 easy payments of $99.95 and I don't even need the free magic chemise thrown in.

(But seriously - nice bit of work, thoroughly enjoyed).
 
FluffyMcDeath said:
A tour de force my man. I am ready to buy the five step solution you are selling for only 15 easy payments of $99.95 and I don't even need the free magic chemise thrown in.

(But seriously - nice bit of work, thoroughly enjoyed).
Click to expand...

well i'm glad you're enjoying this... i thought i was done but i wanted to show you a couple more really kinda cool things... let's zoom out on usg this graph works as good as any of the paid for stock so we'll use it...

http://www.google.com/finance?cid=37142

it wouldn't fit as an image but that's the link to googles "all yr" graph... it has a neat little toggle at the bottom that allows you to expand specific zones... notice some things as you look at it... in 1994 there was a brief yet severe tornado season... you'll see a bunch of short spikes in 94 to correlate that data directly... all of the direct "spikes" that you see are weather related increases and while they may look liike market volatility they really arent, these are the times that the companies is actually taking "extra" profits... do you see the very bottom of the graph... notice how thin it is for most of the decade before 2000... and while it's thin the bottom area gets progressively fatter after 1999. so go here...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Reinvestment_Act#Legislative_changes_1999

as you look through each legislative change and it's appropriate year of enactment/ year of affect and as you can see, as legislation is passed regarding the financial institutions and community reinvestment act... the blue area at the bottom gets fatter each time.... spikes are still present and representing severe weather incidents, and on some occasions the bad news of the day...notice the market action right after 9/11/01... notice how nothing happens even after the 1999 upgrade to the CRA... nothing was gonna make that turd roll after 9/11... and it flatlines for about as long as the initial shock is still affecting the nation as whole...

as you look at this graph, slide your toggle to expand or contract as necessary and overlap the widening base with the changes of the day... here's a pretty good list of the important events...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_United_States_housing_bubble

and just so you don't think i'm crazy about the value of usg ... somebody else really likes it too...

Berkshire’s Top Performing Major Holding of 2012: USG Corporation (USG)

USG Corporation (NYSE:USG) is up 180% since Jan. 1, 2012 and was the best performing significant position owned by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) in 2012. The stock has rebounded from an improved housing outlook in 2012. Berkshire has several other large investments benefiting from the housing recovery such as its investments in financials, building materials, and mortgages themselves. USG has lost money in every quarter since 2007 due to the weakness in housing.
Read more at http://www.fool.com/news/xt/themotleyfoolblognetwork/beta.fool.com/mthiessen/2013/03/20/berkshires-top-performing-major-holding-of/27462/.aspx#bvZhfmY8tqbCCEwE.99
 
drywall is a funny business... it doesn't store well and it ships across the water even less so... (chinese mold problem?)... as such, gypsum is mined, and drywall made in concordance with it's actual use... price reflects demands both naturally occuring (hey it's your home... you will patch the hole you/tornado made in the wall), and legislated (flip those houses for profit!!/bad credit no problem)... when bad weather is predicted through tornado alley, or along hurricane country, coastal waters; i have to buy my drywall and plywood now, it won't be there tomorrow... and if it is... it'll be a buck more a sheet...

factoid: salt was once the "coin of the realm", gypsum is a salt... :D
 
here is a little more proof that a huge collapse is being staved off... mortgage backed securities are anything but secure....

Bullard, who votes on policy this year, acknowledged that the size of the Fed's balance sheet, now at more than $3 trillion, may complicate or prevent a "graceful" exit from the very accommodative policies it has adopted to boost the U.S. recovery from the worst recession in decades.

...

The Fed is buying $45 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities per month in its third round of quantitative easing. It has also pledged to keep interest rates near zero until the unemployment rate drops to 6.5 percent, as long as inflation expectations remain contained.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/21/us-usa-fed-idUSBRE91J15Y20130221
 
i could easy make this a book... there's gobs plenty of stuff... the government could even fix it at any time and it'd be win win for everybody, but they won't(ask me how i dare ya:rolleyes: )... because banks make money off the sale of homes, not selling homes...
 
ok... short trip report... i got the house i wanted for a song... when its all said and done it's just under one fourth of appraisal value... i made arrangements on the other property and found two business fronts that also have the same level of promise... the property market is booming there... and i've done nothing more than sign my name on a couple of the properties... overall investment... 1000$... and no credit check yet either... nobody has even asked me what i do for money... no tax returns have been asked for... nothing...
 
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