Georgia, the Olympics, the US armada and Iran

[FluffyMcDeath]

Again, you've just disproven the only motive you've come up with. The little sliver of land you mention is the only western friendly corridor that can host pipelines (there is a third pipeline as well, btw) avoiding Russia. Why would NATO or the US want to lose this asset? How would any war strengthen this asset?

It would help if it resulted in more NATO equipment ending up getting posted there to "keep the peace".

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Again, you've just disproven the only motive you've come up with. The little sliver of land you mention is the only western friendly corridor that can host pipelines (there is a third pipeline as well, btw) avoiding Russia. Why would NATO or the US want to lose this asset? How would any war strengthen this asset?

It would help if it resulted in more NATO equipment ending up getting posted there to "keep the peace".

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Again, you've just disproven the only motive you've come up with. The little sliver of land you mention is the only western friendly corridor that can host pipelines (there is a third pipeline as well, btw) avoiding Russia. Why would NATO or the US want to lose this asset? How would any war strengthen this asset?

It would help if it resulted in more NATO equipment ending up getting posted there to "keep the peace".

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Again, you've just disproven the only motive you've come up with. The little sliver of land you mention is the only western friendly corridor that can host pipelines (there is a third pipeline as well, btw) avoiding Russia. Why would NATO or the US want to lose this asset? How would any war strengthen this asset?

It would help if it resulted in more NATO equipment ending up getting posted there to "keep the peace".

 

[Glaucus]

I wouldn't think that the CIA would be in on that. More likely one of the neo-con controlled pentagon cells. As for miscalculation, just think about who we are dealing with. Have the neo-cons miscalculated anything else?

Not sure the neo-cons miscalculated anything actually. A prolonged war in Iraq & Afghanistan may have been part of their plans from the beginning. But that's beside the point. I don't know much about the Georgian leadership, but I'd want support from the highest authority before I'd lure the regional super power into a hot war on my own soil. In fact, even then I probably wouldn't. The idea that some shady guy with a mailing address at the Pentagon could have convinced the Georgian leadership to provoke an attack is a bit of a stretch.

It wouldn't be in Georgia's interest to get into a bigger war, and I don't think anyone ever said it would be, but having an excuse to airlift massive US military support right between Russia and Iran while the blockade squeezes Iran from the Gulf and captured territories Afghanistan and Iraq bracket Iran east and west with all other bordering territories being pretty much US allies? Come on. Cut Iran off from Russia? That would be a "bad thing" in neo-con eyes?

But the opposite just happened. A very significant portion of the Georgian military just got wiped off the planet. Entire bases were hit, and possibly their entire airforce was destroyed. And if the US wanted to arm Georgia with weapons, why would they need this little war? Georgia has been buying Western weapons for years now. Georgia has always been expecting some kind of confrontation with Russia, hence it's recent application to NATO. The US also recognizes this publicly. Where's the roadblock?

As it is, the US is moving equipment into the area and who knows what is coming in with those airlifts of Georgians from Iraq.

Whatever it is, I doubt they could ever arm Georgia well enough for it to actually repel a Russian attack. Georgia is just too small and Russia too big. Even if Russia had better weapons, the Russians have always relied in numerical advantage anyway. I really don't think that Georgia just needs a few more SAMs and anti-tank weapons. Georgia needs NATO, and this little war has set them back significantly. To get into NATO they need to resolve their issues with Russia and the separatist regions. The last thing NATO wants to do is sign up a nation that will drag them into a major regional war on the footsteps of the EU.

[quote:1gny1zq1]Don't you find it odd that Russia managed to deploy a military force ten times greater then all of Georgia's military in a matter of only a day or two?

Nope, because they were already there as I think has been mentioned now in this thread three times already.[/quote:1gny1zq1]I know that some of the redeployed units were from Chechnya, but not all. The fact that they had conducted exercises in the area may not have been just pure coincidence.

This is nothing so petty as payback. The strategic importance is far more immediate. Look at a map.

It is of course far more then payback, I'm just saying that Putin must really relish this moment. I understand the interests here.

- Mike

 

[Glaucus]

I wouldn't think that the CIA would be in on that. More likely one of the neo-con controlled pentagon cells. As for miscalculation, just think about who we are dealing with. Have the neo-cons miscalculated anything else?

Not sure the neo-cons miscalculated anything actually. A prolonged war in Iraq & Afghanistan may have been part of their plans from the beginning. But that's beside the point. I don't know much about the Georgian leadership, but I'd want support from the highest authority before I'd lure the regional super power into a hot war on my own soil. In fact, even then I probably wouldn't. The idea that some shady guy with a mailing address at the Pentagon could have convinced the Georgian leadership to provoke an attack is a bit of a stretch.

It wouldn't be in Georgia's interest to get into a bigger war, and I don't think anyone ever said it would be, but having an excuse to airlift massive US military support right between Russia and Iran while the blockade squeezes Iran from the Gulf and captured territories Afghanistan and Iraq bracket Iran east and west with all other bordering territories being pretty much US allies? Come on. Cut Iran off from Russia? That would be a "bad thing" in neo-con eyes?

But the opposite just happened. A very significant portion of the Georgian military just got wiped off the planet. Entire bases were hit, and possibly their entire airforce was destroyed. And if the US wanted to arm Georgia with weapons, why would they need this little war? Georgia has been buying Western weapons for years now. Georgia has always been expecting some kind of confrontation with Russia, hence it's recent application to NATO. The US also recognizes this publicly. Where's the roadblock?

As it is, the US is moving equipment into the area and who knows what is coming in with those airlifts of Georgians from Iraq.

Whatever it is, I doubt they could ever arm Georgia well enough for it to actually repel a Russian attack. Georgia is just too small and Russia too big. Even if Russia had better weapons, the Russians have always relied in numerical advantage anyway. I really don't think that Georgia just needs a few more SAMs and anti-tank weapons. Georgia needs NATO, and this little war has set them back significantly. To get into NATO they need to resolve their issues with Russia and the separatist regions. The last thing NATO wants to do is sign up a nation that will drag them into a major regional war on the footsteps of the EU.

[quote:1gny1zq1]Don't you find it odd that Russia managed to deploy a military force ten times greater then all of Georgia's military in a matter of only a day or two?

Nope, because they were already there as I think has been mentioned now in this thread three times already.[/quote:1gny1zq1]I know that some of the redeployed units were from Chechnya, but not all. The fact that they had conducted exercises in the area may not have been just pure coincidence.

This is nothing so petty as payback. The strategic importance is far more immediate. Look at a map.

It is of course far more then payback, I'm just saying that Putin must really relish this moment. I understand the interests here.

- Mike

 

[Glaucus]

I wouldn't think that the CIA would be in on that. More likely one of the neo-con controlled pentagon cells. As for miscalculation, just think about who we are dealing with. Have the neo-cons miscalculated anything else?

Not sure the neo-cons miscalculated anything actually. A prolonged war in Iraq & Afghanistan may have been part of their plans from the beginning. But that's beside the point. I don't know much about the Georgian leadership, but I'd want support from the highest authority before I'd lure the regional super power into a hot war on my own soil. In fact, even then I probably wouldn't. The idea that some shady guy with a mailing address at the Pentagon could have convinced the Georgian leadership to provoke an attack is a bit of a stretch.

It wouldn't be in Georgia's interest to get into a bigger war, and I don't think anyone ever said it would be, but having an excuse to airlift massive US military support right between Russia and Iran while the blockade squeezes Iran from the Gulf and captured territories Afghanistan and Iraq bracket Iran east and west with all other bordering territories being pretty much US allies? Come on. Cut Iran off from Russia? That would be a "bad thing" in neo-con eyes?

But the opposite just happened. A very significant portion of the Georgian military just got wiped off the planet. Entire bases were hit, and possibly their entire airforce was destroyed. And if the US wanted to arm Georgia with weapons, why would they need this little war? Georgia has been buying Western weapons for years now. Georgia has always been expecting some kind of confrontation with Russia, hence it's recent application to NATO. The US also recognizes this publicly. Where's the roadblock?

As it is, the US is moving equipment into the area and who knows what is coming in with those airlifts of Georgians from Iraq.

Whatever it is, I doubt they could ever arm Georgia well enough for it to actually repel a Russian attack. Georgia is just too small and Russia too big. Even if Russia had better weapons, the Russians have always relied in numerical advantage anyway. I really don't think that Georgia just needs a few more SAMs and anti-tank weapons. Georgia needs NATO, and this little war has set them back significantly. To get into NATO they need to resolve their issues with Russia and the separatist regions. The last thing NATO wants to do is sign up a nation that will drag them into a major regional war on the footsteps of the EU.

[quote:1gny1zq1]Don't you find it odd that Russia managed to deploy a military force ten times greater then all of Georgia's military in a matter of only a day or two?

Nope, because they were already there as I think has been mentioned now in this thread three times already.[/quote:1gny1zq1]I know that some of the redeployed units were from Chechnya, but not all. The fact that they had conducted exercises in the area may not have been just pure coincidence.

This is nothing so petty as payback. The strategic importance is far more immediate. Look at a map.

It is of course far more then payback, I'm just saying that Putin must really relish this moment. I understand the interests here.

- Mike

 

[Glaucus]

I wouldn't think that the CIA would be in on that. More likely one of the neo-con controlled pentagon cells. As for miscalculation, just think about who we are dealing with. Have the neo-cons miscalculated anything else?

Not sure the neo-cons miscalculated anything actually. A prolonged war in Iraq & Afghanistan may have been part of their plans from the beginning. But that's beside the point. I don't know much about the Georgian leadership, but I'd want support from the highest authority before I'd lure the regional super power into a hot war on my own soil. In fact, even then I probably wouldn't. The idea that some shady guy with a mailing address at the Pentagon could have convinced the Georgian leadership to provoke an attack is a bit of a stretch.

It wouldn't be in Georgia's interest to get into a bigger war, and I don't think anyone ever said it would be, but having an excuse to airlift massive US military support right between Russia and Iran while the blockade squeezes Iran from the Gulf and captured territories Afghanistan and Iraq bracket Iran east and west with all other bordering territories being pretty much US allies? Come on. Cut Iran off from Russia? That would be a "bad thing" in neo-con eyes?

But the opposite just happened. A very significant portion of the Georgian military just got wiped off the planet. Entire bases were hit, and possibly their entire airforce was destroyed. And if the US wanted to arm Georgia with weapons, why would they need this little war? Georgia has been buying Western weapons for years now. Georgia has always been expecting some kind of confrontation with Russia, hence it's recent application to NATO. The US also recognizes this publicly. Where's the roadblock?

As it is, the US is moving equipment into the area and who knows what is coming in with those airlifts of Georgians from Iraq.

Whatever it is, I doubt they could ever arm Georgia well enough for it to actually repel a Russian attack. Georgia is just too small and Russia too big. Even if Russia had better weapons, the Russians have always relied in numerical advantage anyway. I really don't think that Georgia just needs a few more SAMs and anti-tank weapons. Georgia needs NATO, and this little war has set them back significantly. To get into NATO they need to resolve their issues with Russia and the separatist regions. The last thing NATO wants to do is sign up a nation that will drag them into a major regional war on the footsteps of the EU.

[quote:1gny1zq1]Don't you find it odd that Russia managed to deploy a military force ten times greater then all of Georgia's military in a matter of only a day or two?

Nope, because they were already there as I think has been mentioned now in this thread three times already.[/quote:1gny1zq1]I know that some of the redeployed units were from Chechnya, but not all. The fact that they had conducted exercises in the area may not have been just pure coincidence.

This is nothing so petty as payback. The strategic importance is far more immediate. Look at a map.

It is of course far more then payback, I'm just saying that Putin must really relish this moment. I understand the interests here.

- Mike

 

[Glaucus]

I wouldn't think that the CIA would be in on that. More likely one of the neo-con controlled pentagon cells. As for miscalculation, just think about who we are dealing with. Have the neo-cons miscalculated anything else?

Not sure the neo-cons miscalculated anything actually. A prolonged war in Iraq & Afghanistan may have been part of their plans from the beginning. But that's beside the point. I don't know much about the Georgian leadership, but I'd want support from the highest authority before I'd lure the regional super power into a hot war on my own soil. In fact, even then I probably wouldn't. The idea that some shady guy with a mailing address at the Pentagon could have convinced the Georgian leadership to provoke an attack is a bit of a stretch.

It wouldn't be in Georgia's interest to get into a bigger war, and I don't think anyone ever said it would be, but having an excuse to airlift massive US military support right between Russia and Iran while the blockade squeezes Iran from the Gulf and captured territories Afghanistan and Iraq bracket Iran east and west with all other bordering territories being pretty much US allies? Come on. Cut Iran off from Russia? That would be a "bad thing" in neo-con eyes?

But the opposite just happened. A very significant portion of the Georgian military just got wiped off the planet. Entire bases were hit, and possibly their entire airforce was destroyed. And if the US wanted to arm Georgia with weapons, why would they need this little war? Georgia has been buying Western weapons for years now. Georgia has always been expecting some kind of confrontation with Russia, hence it's recent application to NATO. The US also recognizes this publicly. Where's the roadblock?

As it is, the US is moving equipment into the area and who knows what is coming in with those airlifts of Georgians from Iraq.

Whatever it is, I doubt they could ever arm Georgia well enough for it to actually repel a Russian attack. Georgia is just too small and Russia too big. Even if Russia had better weapons, the Russians have always relied in numerical advantage anyway. I really don't think that Georgia just needs a few more SAMs and anti-tank weapons. Georgia needs NATO, and this little war has set them back significantly. To get into NATO they need to resolve their issues with Russia and the separatist regions. The last thing NATO wants to do is sign up a nation that will drag them into a major regional war on the footsteps of the EU.

[quote:1gny1zq1]Don't you find it odd that Russia managed to deploy a military force ten times greater then all of Georgia's military in a matter of only a day or two?

Nope, because they were already there as I think has been mentioned now in this thread three times already.[/quote:1gny1zq1]I know that some of the redeployed units were from Chechnya, but not all. The fact that they had conducted exercises in the area may not have been just pure coincidence.

This is nothing so petty as payback. The strategic importance is far more immediate. Look at a map.

It is of course far more then payback, I'm just saying that Putin must really relish this moment. I understand the interests here.

- Mike

 

[Glaucus]

I wouldn't think that the CIA would be in on that. More likely one of the neo-con controlled pentagon cells. As for miscalculation, just think about who we are dealing with. Have the neo-cons miscalculated anything else?

Not sure the neo-cons miscalculated anything actually. A prolonged war in Iraq & Afghanistan may have been part of their plans from the beginning. But that's beside the point. I don't know much about the Georgian leadership, but I'd want support from the highest authority before I'd lure the regional super power into a hot war on my own soil. In fact, even then I probably wouldn't. The idea that some shady guy with a mailing address at the Pentagon could have convinced the Georgian leadership to provoke an attack is a bit of a stretch.

It wouldn't be in Georgia's interest to get into a bigger war, and I don't think anyone ever said it would be, but having an excuse to airlift massive US military support right between Russia and Iran while the blockade squeezes Iran from the Gulf and captured territories Afghanistan and Iraq bracket Iran east and west with all other bordering territories being pretty much US allies? Come on. Cut Iran off from Russia? That would be a "bad thing" in neo-con eyes?

But the opposite just happened. A very significant portion of the Georgian military just got wiped off the planet. Entire bases were hit, and possibly their entire airforce was destroyed. And if the US wanted to arm Georgia with weapons, why would they need this little war? Georgia has been buying Western weapons for years now. Georgia has always been expecting some kind of confrontation with Russia, hence it's recent application to NATO. The US also recognizes this publicly. Where's the roadblock?

As it is, the US is moving equipment into the area and who knows what is coming in with those airlifts of Georgians from Iraq.

Whatever it is, I doubt they could ever arm Georgia well enough for it to actually repel a Russian attack. Georgia is just too small and Russia too big. Even if Russia had better weapons, the Russians have always relied in numerical advantage anyway. I really don't think that Georgia just needs a few more SAMs and anti-tank weapons. Georgia needs NATO, and this little war has set them back significantly. To get into NATO they need to resolve their issues with Russia and the separatist regions. The last thing NATO wants to do is sign up a nation that will drag them into a major regional war on the footsteps of the EU.

[quote:1gny1zq1]Don't you find it odd that Russia managed to deploy a military force ten times greater then all of Georgia's military in a matter of only a day or two?

Nope, because they were already there as I think has been mentioned now in this thread three times already.[/quote:1gny1zq1]I know that some of the redeployed units were from Chechnya, but not all. The fact that they had conducted exercises in the area may not have been just pure coincidence.

This is nothing so petty as payback. The strategic importance is far more immediate. Look at a map.

It is of course far more then payback, I'm just saying that Putin must really relish this moment. I understand the interests here.

- Mike

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Seems that Tskhinvali was pretty badly shot up and the city is described as unlivable at the moment with thousands having fled to Russia. Perhaps this could be considered a good outcome by Georgia. It makes it easier to take the land if the inhabitants have left it, and after what seems to be a war on civilians the people won't be too quick to flood back I'd think.

Russia's best bet now is probably to take the Georgians to the World Court and press charges. That would set a good diplomatic tone, claim the moral high ground by making a case of international law and getting rid of some troublesome politicians in Georgia.

On the strategic front, the Russians have resources tied down in Ossetia and the Americans and Israelis can keep shipping weapons into Georgia to use on the Russian sitting ducks and maybe provoke another response. Simple longterm destabilization may be the goal here and stirring the pot is always easy and low cost to the provocateur.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Seems that Tskhinvali was pretty badly shot up and the city is described as unlivable at the moment with thousands having fled to Russia. Perhaps this could be considered a good outcome by Georgia. It makes it easier to take the land if the inhabitants have left it, and after what seems to be a war on civilians the people won't be too quick to flood back I'd think.

Russia's best bet now is probably to take the Georgians to the World Court and press charges. That would set a good diplomatic tone, claim the moral high ground by making a case of international law and getting rid of some troublesome politicians in Georgia.

On the strategic front, the Russians have resources tied down in Ossetia and the Americans and Israelis can keep shipping weapons into Georgia to use on the Russian sitting ducks and maybe provoke another response. Simple longterm destabilization may be the goal here and stirring the pot is always easy and low cost to the provocateur.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Seems that Tskhinvali was pretty badly shot up and the city is described as unlivable at the moment with thousands having fled to Russia. Perhaps this could be considered a good outcome by Georgia. It makes it easier to take the land if the inhabitants have left it, and after what seems to be a war on civilians the people won't be too quick to flood back I'd think.

Russia's best bet now is probably to take the Georgians to the World Court and press charges. That would set a good diplomatic tone, claim the moral high ground by making a case of international law and getting rid of some troublesome politicians in Georgia.

On the strategic front, the Russians have resources tied down in Ossetia and the Americans and Israelis can keep shipping weapons into Georgia to use on the Russian sitting ducks and maybe provoke another response. Simple longterm destabilization may be the goal here and stirring the pot is always easy and low cost to the provocateur.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Seems that Tskhinvali was pretty badly shot up and the city is described as unlivable at the moment with thousands having fled to Russia. Perhaps this could be considered a good outcome by Georgia. It makes it easier to take the land if the inhabitants have left it, and after what seems to be a war on civilians the people won't be too quick to flood back I'd think.

Russia's best bet now is probably to take the Georgians to the World Court and press charges. That would set a good diplomatic tone, claim the moral high ground by making a case of international law and getting rid of some troublesome politicians in Georgia.

On the strategic front, the Russians have resources tied down in Ossetia and the Americans and Israelis can keep shipping weapons into Georgia to use on the Russian sitting ducks and maybe provoke another response. Simple longterm destabilization may be the goal here and stirring the pot is always easy and low cost to the provocateur.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Seems that Tskhinvali was pretty badly shot up and the city is described as unlivable at the moment with thousands having fled to Russia. Perhaps this could be considered a good outcome by Georgia. It makes it easier to take the land if the inhabitants have left it, and after what seems to be a war on civilians the people won't be too quick to flood back I'd think.

Russia's best bet now is probably to take the Georgians to the World Court and press charges. That would set a good diplomatic tone, claim the moral high ground by making a case of international law and getting rid of some troublesome politicians in Georgia.

On the strategic front, the Russians have resources tied down in Ossetia and the Americans and Israelis can keep shipping weapons into Georgia to use on the Russian sitting ducks and maybe provoke another response. Simple longterm destabilization may be the goal here and stirring the pot is always easy and low cost to the provocateur.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Seems that Tskhinvali was pretty badly shot up and the city is described as unlivable at the moment with thousands having fled to Russia. Perhaps this could be considered a good outcome by Georgia. It makes it easier to take the land if the inhabitants have left it, and after what seems to be a war on civilians the people won't be too quick to flood back I'd think.

Russia's best bet now is probably to take the Georgians to the World Court and press charges. That would set a good diplomatic tone, claim the moral high ground by making a case of international law and getting rid of some troublesome politicians in Georgia.

On the strategic front, the Russians have resources tied down in Ossetia and the Americans and Israelis can keep shipping weapons into Georgia to use on the Russian sitting ducks and maybe provoke another response. Simple longterm destabilization may be the goal here and stirring the pot is always easy and low cost to the provocateur.

 

[Robert]

Gorby's (perhaps predictable) take on things:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... a.georgia1

The roots of this tragedy lie in the decision of Georgia's separatist leaders in 1991 to abolish South Ossetian autonomy. Each time successive Georgian leaders tried to impose their will by force - both in South Ossetia and in Abkhazia, where the issues of autonomy are similar - it only made the situation worse.

Nevertheless, it was still possible to find a political solution. Clearly, the only way to solve the South Ossetian problem on that basis is through peaceful means. The Georgian leadership flouted this key principle.

What happened on the night of August 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against "small, defenceless Georgia" is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity.

 

[Robert]

Gorby's (perhaps predictable) take on things:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... a.georgia1

The roots of this tragedy lie in the decision of Georgia's separatist leaders in 1991 to abolish South Ossetian autonomy. Each time successive Georgian leaders tried to impose their will by force - both in South Ossetia and in Abkhazia, where the issues of autonomy are similar - it only made the situation worse.

Nevertheless, it was still possible to find a political solution. Clearly, the only way to solve the South Ossetian problem on that basis is through peaceful means. The Georgian leadership flouted this key principle.

What happened on the night of August 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against "small, defenceless Georgia" is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity.

 

[Robert]

Gorby's (perhaps predictable) take on things:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... a.georgia1

The roots of this tragedy lie in the decision of Georgia's separatist leaders in 1991 to abolish South Ossetian autonomy. Each time successive Georgian leaders tried to impose their will by force - both in South Ossetia and in Abkhazia, where the issues of autonomy are similar - it only made the situation worse.

Nevertheless, it was still possible to find a political solution. Clearly, the only way to solve the South Ossetian problem on that basis is through peaceful means. The Georgian leadership flouted this key principle.

What happened on the night of August 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against "small, defenceless Georgia" is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity.

 

[Robert]

Gorby's (perhaps predictable) take on things:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... a.georgia1

The roots of this tragedy lie in the decision of Georgia's separatist leaders in 1991 to abolish South Ossetian autonomy. Each time successive Georgian leaders tried to impose their will by force - both in South Ossetia and in Abkhazia, where the issues of autonomy are similar - it only made the situation worse.

Nevertheless, it was still possible to find a political solution. Clearly, the only way to solve the South Ossetian problem on that basis is through peaceful means. The Georgian leadership flouted this key principle.

What happened on the night of August 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against "small, defenceless Georgia" is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity.