Meanwhile in Cairo

Silly fools. Don't they know the only way to bring about democracy is to have the US bomb them into the stone age and then invade and occupy? When will they learn?
 
This is interesting...

U.S. officials backed rebels planning Egyptian uprising in 2008: WikiLeaks

In the cable, American officials are described as having pressed the Egyptian government to release several jailed political prisoners and appear to take an interest in activists' stories of repression at the hands of Mr. Mubarak's regime.

In the case of the April 6 leader, whose name has been redacted from the document to protect his identity, U.S. officials helped him attend the “Alliance of Youth Movements Summit,” which took place in early December 2008 at Columbia University in New York.

The summit, which featured speeches by such people as Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and an undersecretary in the U.S. State Department, was billed as a chance for young activists from around the world to discuss using the Internet to effect social change.

Ms. Scobey says the activist was happy with the summit, where dissidents in other countries gave him suggestions on how April 6 members could evade surveillance from Egyptian spies; others also invited him to visit and speak at protests in support of Egyptian democracy.
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So what are your thoughts on that Fluffy? Where you expecting anything like that?
 
Glaucus said:
So what are your thoughts on that Fluffy? Where you expecting anything like that?
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I'm a bit surprised by that. I couldn't imagine the Bush administration doing anything that might benefit ElBaradei and I would have thought the Americans would be quite confident in Mubarak's loyalty. I would have thought that, even if they worried about his age, they'd have been able to bring up a new leader from inside the regime with less risk. I would have presumed their diplomatic contacts would have been good enough to find someone and effect a smooth transition.

I was more suspecting Russia or Iran, both of whom have beefs to pick with Israel and the US so taking out "friendly" government like Mubaraks would be net positive for them (neither of them having anything to lose in Egypt, a disorderly transition with uncertain outcome would be acceptable). Perhaps the US was trying to recruit radicals as double agents because they worried about such an uprising controlled by others.
 
I think the problem is fairly simple to resolve. If the Egyptian government were to significantly cut taxes the businesses would hire people. In turn the protestors would be busy and the government could continue.

:mrgreen:
 
faethor said:
If the Egyptian government were to significantly cut taxes the businesses would hire people.
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Indeedy. According to this page in the CIA factbook measuring wealth inequality (the higher the Gini index the higher the wealth inequality) Egypt has more even wealth distribution than the US. The Egyptians are rioting partly over inequality. Obviously they don't have enough of it.
 
So any predictions as to what may happen? Does Mubarak have a chance? And if he does go, who will replace him?

I'm thinking he's got little chance of staying in power. Doesn't look like the military is prepared to attack the people and they may even protect them from the police. Mubarak has few options now. The best case scenario would be for him to setup some kind of transition government and then step down and leave the nation along with his family.

As for who takes over? It's hard to say. This Slate article suggests that what is going on in Egypt right now is very similar to what happened in Iran a few decades ago. Egypt may be taken over by religious extremists making it yet another theocracy in the region. It's true that the Muslim Brotherhood is perhaps the only organized opposition and certainly has a chance to steal power (and by steal I mean replace the existing oppressive government with another oppressive government). I'm hoping that's not the case though. That other link I posted a few days back does suggest that the US has had some contact with opposition leaders for at least a couple of years now. So who knows, even if the Muslim Brotherhood does take power, they may not be totally anti-US and possibly democratic. Overall, the long term effect on Egypt will probably be decided by the actions of a few people over the coarse of a few days. It'll be interesting.
 
Glaucus said:
Egypt may be taken over by religious extremists making it yet another theocracy in the region. It's true that the Muslim Brotherhood is perhaps the only organized opposition and certainly has a chance to steal power (and by steal I mean replace the existing oppressive government with another oppressive government). I'm hoping that's not the case though.
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I haven't had time to pay as much attention to the situation as I'd like but that does appear to be a distinct possibility.
 
For now I'm treating this as hearsay, it could just be disinfo to stir the pot but apparently Israel sent crowd control equipment to Egypt. We know that the Egyptians are already upset about US made tear gas being used against them and about the US still supporting Mubarak so a story about Israel helping Mubarak could turn Egyptian fence sitters against Israel but at the same time the story has the ring of truth.

Netanyahu did speak to his cabinet the other day about the importance of Egypt's "stability" and they have enjoyed a stable relationship with Mubarak for decades and who knows how many other Israel friendly leadership candidates there are in Egypt. It's not like a new government of Egypt would start a bombing campaign or anything but perhaps the price of gas would go up in Israel and the Gaza crossing might stay open.
 
Time will tell. I can't say that I believe that Egypt would have ran out of tear gas after just a few days. However, Mubarak must also consider that if he orders his police force to go after the protesters, he must also worry about the military which has practically sworn to protect them. In fact, he should really be worried about a coup. And a coup may happen even if Mubarak does nothing at all, the country has ground to a halt and people will need food and other supplies. I expect it to be resolved by the end of the week.
 
I think post-Mubarak Egypt will be more anti-Iran then anti-Israel, so Israel shouldn't worry too much.
 
I'd say it's the final throws. I would not be surprised if the military decides to take matters in their hands and dispose of Mubarak themselves.

At any rate: Obama wants Mubarak to step down now

That might be all that really matters. I imagine Mubarak must be pretty bitter right now. After all those years of supporting those "American assholes" (his words I'd imagine, not mine) he's rewarded with a nice firm stab in the back. Of course, the US really should never have supported him in the first place, but I'm sure he won't be thinking that right now.
 
Now anti-Mubarak protesters are calling for US intervention :?:

Whyzzat :?:
 
redrumloa said:
Now anti-Mubarak protesters are calling for US intervention :?:

Whyzzat :?:
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Since we support Mubarak it would obviously 'finish' things if we pulled our support and joined their side. And afterall we're the world's leading democracy, shouldn't we support the side that wants democratic elections?

So maybe the protesters don't know US history and realize we often pick our own puppet dictators over democracy.
 
Winning hearts and minds.

[youtube:3h3b7gba]gyE4TimLnv8[/youtube:3h3b7gba]
 
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