OMG! Global Warming will kill us with hurricanes in 2013!!!

[redrumloa]

The science is settled. It’s unanimous: NOAA calls for very active hurricane season, joining other forecasters. <May 23, 2013

Its outlook calls for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 of which will become hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).

“There are no mitigating factors that would suppress the activity,” said Gerry Bell, lead outlook forecaster. “El Nino is not expected to develop this year. All factors point to an active or very active hurricane season.”

On noes!! I guess that means Hurricane Season Is A Good Time To Talk About Climate Change. <- June 6, 2013

this is the president last week on the eve of hurricane seasons in the situation room . he's being briefed by homeland security , fema and national oceanographic and atmospheric administration , noaa. they're in the room where they watched the bin laden raid and being briefed on hurricane seasons because it is no longer weather out look. it us a now a situation threat to the country. we have to get used to that because that is the era we've entered right now, already begun. our most recent disaster national hurricane center sandy killed 170 people and caused more than $50 billion in damage, billion with a b. it wasn't a one off freak event, the kind of disaster that will happen now again and again because of the carbon we put in the atmosphere and are continuing to put in. we are now entering the first stages of the disaster years. that's what they'll call it when the history books are written, the time the uncommon became common. just last week, noaa predicted a far more active than normal hurricane seasons with 13 to 20 named storms. last year they predicted 9 to 15 named storms and we got 19. when noaa explained their prediction for this year's extremely active hurricane seasons they cited warmer than average water temperatures in the tractor-trailer leak -- tropical ocean and leak sea. as you can see, as it climbed 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere the average number of named storms in the atlantic has shot up. they are getting longer and showing up earlier. between 1969 the average date of the first named storm was july 9th . the past four years including this one we have named the first storm in june and may. tropical storm andrea was early and thankfully doesn't look like it will be that bad. we may not be that lucky with the storms named barry and chantal and dorian and fernand are done with us. as you watch the coverage, you should know i will be covering those storms, too. i will cover them as if they're some kind of random independent acts of fate, i will cover them as if they're what they are, a scientific result what we're doing to this planet and the planet we're giving to our children.

Oh no, we're all going to die!!!

Wait a second! Isn't today August 23? Hurricane season is almost half over? What is the score card so far?

Total Storms - 5 *
Hurricanes - 0
Major Hurricanes - 0

* Including Tropical Storms with wind speeds as low as 39MPH, which are no worse than a typical South Florida thunderstorm.

No hurricanes at all yet? But aren't we in the heart of the busiest part of the hurricane season? There must be all kinds of storms forming right? just dozens of them rolling off Africa?!?

Fake science makes baby jebus cry

 

[faethor]

Indeed a 0 hurricane year is rare. We do have a few more months as the predictions generally run through November. But, it's unlikely we'll have the 13-16 predicted by differing agencies.

"According to weather records dating back to 1851, there are 48 other years when the first hurricane materialized after Aug. 20, and in 25 of those years, it was on or after Sept. 1. The all-time latest is Oct. 8, 1905. Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30."

Remember Hurricane Sandy that hit NYC last year? It hit land degraded to a superstorm but that was Oct 29th. So, I think you're counting before all the eggs have hatched. Let's at least get through Sept. and then we can talk more.

 

[redrumloa]

Remember Hurricane Sandy that hit NYC last year? It hit land degraded to a superstorm but that was Oct 29th. So, I think you're counting before all the eggs have hatched. Let's at least get through Sept. and then we can talk more.

I know, I'm tempting fate. I'll take the chance

Enough time has passed to really speak my mind about Sandy. It was devastating, but only due to the fact the area was completely and totally vulnerable. It hit the New England with the strength of a Category 1 Hurricane. Here in South Florida a category 1 storm would cause minor disruptions and very few, if any, deaths. That area could never have another hurricane hit again and they are still vulnerable. Any sort of moderate storm surge will cause all kinds of havoc and death.

I've lived in South Florida almost my entire life. Before Andrew hit there was a ~28 year period of no hurricanes directly hitting South Florida. 2004 and 2005 were an anomoly, 8 storms in 2 years is something I will remember. It is likely we will enter another period of low activity for hurricanes. Modern forecasting is a fairly modern thing. Before the 1950s, would would likely know that a hurricane was hitting when your house was being blown away.

 

[faethor]

Enough time has passed to really speak my mind about Sandy. It was devastating, but only due to the fact the area was completely and totally vulnerable. It hit the New England with the strength of a Category 1 Hurricane. Here in South Florida a category 1 storm would cause minor disruptions and very few, if any, deaths. That area could never have another hurricane hit again and they are still vulnerable. Any sort of moderate storm surge will cause all kinds of havoc and death.

Not totally disagreeable. Some of that comes from how the area was built and the density of population. For example, NYC is about 27K people per square mile, Miami is around 12K. So there are some foundational differences.

For an inverse comparison when you guys in Florida get snow, we get the giggles. 1" and down goes your state for a couple of days.. A couple feet and I'm a few minutes late for work.

It is likely we will enter another period of low activity for hurricanes. Modern forecasting is a fairly modern thing. Before the 1950s, would would likely know that a hurricane was hitting when your house was being blown away.

The frequency changes to active and inactive periods is an interesting question.

 

[redrumloa]

Not totally disagreeable. Some of that comes from how the area was built and the density of population. For example, NYC is about 27K people per square mile, Miami is around 12K. So there are some foundational differences.

That is not the whole story. Parts of Manhattan are only 5 feet above sea level. I'm sure there are other areas even lower. When you have subways and other subterranean area well below sea level and close to the ocean, you have a potential for disaster from any storm surge. Our infrastructure has greatly improved over the years since Andrew in 92(building code), and again after the 8 storms from 04-05(gas stations and grocery stores must have generators). We could probably take a category one today with minimal disruption.

The hurricane map has ZERO current activity. Every day that passes with no hurricanes is like Christmas to me. 9 direct hits from hurricanes is enough for one lifetime! Besides, I could use the LOLs watching AGW fake scientists running around trying to explain why no hurricanes is actually a sign of "Climate Change" too.

 

[cecilia]

I listened to this the other day. Quite informative (and entertaining to boot)

http://www.startalkradio.net/show/startalk-live-storms-of-our-century-part-1/

On Feb. 7, 2013, the night before the Blizzard of 2013 (aka Winter Storm Nemo), Neil deGrasse Tyson and comic co-host Eugene Mirman stopped by The Bell House to talk about the weather. Dr. Adam Sobel, professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia, was on hand to explain what causes hurricanes, from the Coriolis force and the jet stream to asymmetrical temperatures and tides. Together with comedian Michael Showalter and musician Questlove from The Roots (Jimmy Fallon’s in-house band), the StarTalk Live crew toured the most infamous storms of our century, including the great Galveston Hurricane, the Perfect Storm, Andrew, Katrina and Superstorm Sandy. They also discussed the science of weather forecasting, the categories on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and whether we could – or should – redirect a hurricane.

http://www.startalkradio.net/show/startalk-live-storms-of-our-century-part-2/

Weather gives way to climate change as the StarTalk Live crew grapples with the impact of the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gases and the Earth’s orbit and axial tilt on climate change. Neil goes back to the Carboniferous Era to explain where fossil fuels come from, and climate scientist Dr. Adam Sobel tells us how much carbon we’ve put into our atmosphere. With insights from his involvement in the last Presidential election, musician and author Questlove raises the issue of politics in the climate change debate and asks the question, “Aren’t scientists not supposed to lie?” And comic co-host Eugene Mirman and comedian Michael Showalter bring a bit of humor to bear on subjects from deforestation and ice ages to chaos theory and “The Butterfly Effect,” all on the eve of Winter Storm Nemo pummeling the Northeast with the Blizzard of 2013.

 

[faethor]

All hurricanes since 1864 mapped For those that live in Florida, your state is gone. Washed out by the # of hurricanes, but you knew that.

 

[ilwrath]

Besides, I could use the LOLs watching AGW fake scientists running around trying to explain why no hurricanes is actually a sign of "Climate Change" too.

What do you mean no hurricanes? The corrected and normalized data shows we've already had 5 this year. Ah, fun with statistics.

 

[faethor]

Let's Name Hurricanes after anti-science senators amusing. But, seriously a do not do, we don't need to be that political.

 

[redrumloa]

Let's Name Hurricanes after anti-science senators amusing. But, seriously a do not do, we don't need to be that political.

I think you would first need to actually have a hurricane to do that

But be my guest. Hurricanes have been political for years now, including my OP as only one example.

 

[redrumloa]

Indeed a 0 hurricane year is rare.

Rare isn't the right word. As a matter of fact since 1851 when records started being kept, it has never happened.

Other interesting data that does not fit the whole stupid Man Made Global Warming Causes Hurricanes drumbeat:

* 1950 is recorded as the busiest season in the whole database for number of Major Hurricanes with 8.

This is despite the fact of no satellite data whatsoever. Makes you wonder how many went undetected?

+ 1886 is recorded as the most active hurricane season for the continental USA with 7 landfalling hurricanes.

Oh noes! Didn't we just end the Little Ice Age in the late 1800's? Wasn't 1886 only 70 years after the infamous Year Without A Summer?

Fake AGW "scientists" should be thrown in jail for crimes against humanity.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Fake AGW "scientists" should be thrown in jail for crimes against humanity.

For what actual crimes though?

 

[faethor]

Rare isn't the right word. As a matter of fact since 1851 when records started being kept, it has never happened.

1914 and 1907 were years with 0 hurricanes Note if you follow the Hurricane column in your link you find 0 on 1907, 1914 collaborated.

Fake AGW "scientists" should be thrown in jail for crimes against humanity.

There's 2 items here. (1) is Climate controls being forced by CO2 more than any other factor? The signs all points to yes. What you're really complaining about is (2) predictions of how our world will change from this result. Which is something we've had for the past decade or so. In my experience the science only gets better over time. (Well, except those nasty periods in history where religion is in charge. ) There's a reason there exists about a dozen models, and not one. It's because we're working on a huge number of factors and possibilities.

 

[robert l. bentham]

some of which are still yet unknown...

 

[robert l. bentham]

and some unnaccepted... the greenies messed plenty of stuff up with their "good intentions". almost as many as the bastards with the fossil fuel industry...

 

[redrumloa]

1914 and 1907 were years with 0 hurricanes Note if you follow the Hurricane column in your link you find 0 on 1907, 1914 collaborated.

You got me, sort of. How I wrote it above, I was wrong. The problem is:

The Atlantic hurricane database (or HURDAT) extends back to 1851. However, because tropical storms and hurricanes spend much of their lifetime over the open ocean - some never hitting land - many systems were "missed" during the late 19th and early 20th Centuries (Vecchi and Knutson 2008). Starting in 1944, systematic aircraft reconnaissance was commenced for monitoring both tropical cyclones and disturbances that had the potential to develop into tropical storms and hurricanes. This did provide much improved monitoring, but still about half of the Atlantic basin was not covered (Sheets 1990). Beginning in 1966, daily satellite imagery became available at the National Hurricane Center, and thus statistics from this time forward are most complete

I should have worded my post better.

 

[faethor]

While 2000 has 9 out of the 10 hottest years the rate of increase has slowed compared to the 90s. It appears to be the luck of An unusually high La Nina cycle

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

While 2000 has 9 out of the 10 hottest years the rate of increase has slowed compared to the 90s. It appears to be the luck of An unusually high La Nina cycle

And don't forget the sun is unusually inactive in this solar cycle and China has been pumping sulphur dioxide into the air when they burn high sulphur coal and oil. China has a raging acid rain problem, just like Europe did several decades ago. In fact, if you look at Dr Eastwood's declining temperatures from the 50s to the 80s, (it's declining because of how he chose his start and end points but that's another matter) that was during a time of increasing atmospheric sulphates and they tend to cause more sunlight to be reflected back to space lowering temperatures. When we started attacking sulphur emissions, temperatures started climbing again. China is now a major producer of atmospheric sulphates so they are helping to slow warming, but when they get around to addressing their acid rain problem...

 

[faethor]

The record # of days during the Minnesota State Fair with above 90 temps is 5. We've had 5 days of fair and all 5 were above 90. We have 90s predicted each day for the remainder of the fair. It appears this week and half in 2013 is net the hottest one measured in Minnesota.

 

[cecilia]