Why Israel worries about Iran -- and prepares

[News Feed]

On a cool January morning, Israeli ambulances sped to the site of a simulated terrorist attack in Haifa, the country's largest port city. In keeping with the script for the long-planned civil defense exercise, emergency workers responded to a suicide car bomb with one element the country has not experienced in the dozens of real terrorist bombings over the years: this simulated attack dispersed nuclear materials, a "dirty bomb" laced with radioactive Cesium 137.

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[redrumloa]

Topper.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

All part of getting the public scared enough to back another loony (and costly) military campaign.

 

[Dammy]

All part of getting the public scared enough to back another loony (and costly) military campaign.

Obama has to, the economy is about to slip back into recession as Europe sinks. The Elites have to have the war AND revolutions in the Gulf states in order to shut off the middle east oil by end of the year or early 2013. That will trigger the collapse of the EU and the EURO which will collapse the US Too Big Too Fail banks. With that collapse, the central banks of the world will begin massive quantitative easing which will bring hellish inflation that will doom fiat currencies which bring the US dollar into worthless paper. Soros and his buddies will come in to save the day with a reserve currency backed by gold/silver. As I pointed out before, FDIC has mandated breakup plans by the TBTF banks (250+ billion banks by July, all else by Jan 2013). This is for the elites to be able to buy all the value assets of the soon to fail TBTF banks for a fraction of a penny on the dollar. That's what you all on the Left are cheering on, right, world wide oligarchy?

 

[faethor]

Has Iran ever been First to Strike?

 

[Dammy]

Has Iran ever been First to Strike?

With whacko religious nut jobs in power, history is meaningless.

 

[faethor]

With whacko religious nut jobs in power, history is meaningless.

Hey now we're not talking about Republican Presidential candidates.

 

[Glaucus]

Has Iran ever been First to Strike?

Depends how far back in history you wish to go. To me Iran seems like a nation that is drunk on it's ancient glories. That's not unique really, I'm sure both Ottomans and Greeks would love to relive their former glories too, but a nuclear Iran is dangerously close to fulfilling that dream.

Personally, I think Israelis have good reason to be fearful of Iran. You can make the arguement that Israel is using these exercises mostly to train it's citizens to see Iran as a threat, but Iran has more than matched Israel in this regard. Iran is a country that really should have little interest in Israel and yet spends a lot of time and effort demonizing Israel and denying the holocaust and then backs it all up with obnoxious threats. I have myself criticized Israeli politics and tactics, but Iran goes far and beyond mere criticism. In fact, they're quite belligerent in general and not just to Israel, but to Europe and their own people. My personal take is that Iranian leadership uses Israel for it's own political gain. They may not wish to ever attack Israel, but Israel makes for a great boogie man and helps them stay in power. That may very well be the case, but you'd be a fool to not rethink your security when your neighbor who has made death threats against you is seen purchasing weapons.

 

[Robert]

Personally, I think Israelis have good reason to be fearful of Iran.

Perhaps but no more reason than Iran itself has to be fearful of Israel.
The idea that Israel has every reason to fear Iran but Iran has nothing to fear from Israel, which is what you seem to be implying, is completely absurd and a little bit silly.

Iran is a country that really should have little interest in Israel and yet spends a lot of time and effort demonizing Israel

Should have little interest? Even if that were so (which I doubt), it would be a completely meaningless assertion. Swap the two countries around and exactly the same applies. In fact, swap Iran for the USA and Israel for any one from a large selection of countries over the last 50 years.

I have myself criticized Israeli politics and tactics, but Iran goes far and beyond mere criticism.

This statement implies that mere criticism is sufficient to address Israeli behaviour.

My personal take is that Iranian leadership uses Israel for it's own political gain.

Of course they do. Just as Israel uses Iran for it's own political gain.

 

[Glaucus]

Perhaps but no more reason than Iran itself has to be fearful of Israel.

Under the current situation, you're right. My point was that there really is little reason these two nations are enemies at all. It's not like they have territorial disputes or anything. Can you explain to me why these two nations are so hateful of each other? There are recent historical reasons why Iran may not be happy with the US, but heck, even Vietnam is developing closer ties to the US these days and they more than anyone should hold a grudge. I do honestly believe that these three nations should not be enemies at all and for the most part it's just posturing.

The idea that Israel has every reason to fear Iran but Iran has nothing to fear from Israel, which is what you seem to be implying, is completely absurd and a little bit silly.

Sure, Iran does need to worry about an Israeli attack. But why is that? For years Israel had the capability to wipe out Iran with it's nuclear arsenal but has not done so. More importantly, Israel has never threatened to do so either - at least not until it become obvious that a belligerent Iran was developing nuclear technology. I really don't think Israel would care much about Iran if Iran didn't make so many threats against Israel. Pakistan is an Islamic country with nuclear weapons, but they don't seem to care much about Israel and thus Israel doesn't care about Pakistan. However, if Pakistan decided to start making threats towards Israel, would Israel not be in the right to seek protection from those threats?

Should have little interest? Even if that were so (which I doubt), it would be a completely meaningless assertion. Swap the two countries around and exactly the same applies. In fact, swap Iran for the USA and Israel for any one from a large selection of countries over the last 50 years.

Sure, but you're thinking in the old cold-war style of thinking. If Israel has it's strong backer, shouldn't Palestine as well? Sure, except that I don't see that bringing about a real solution. The current "Arab Spring" as some call it is far more likely to bring success on that front. Replace the dictators with a more open, democratic system and maybe Israel will feel less threatened. If Israel feels less threatened, the hard liners like Benjamin Netanyahu will find it hard to use fear as a political tool to get themselves elected. And maybe then a real leader of the Israeli people can make some real progress there. The idea that Palestinians can somehow use fear and intimidation to bully the Israelis is what I think is completely absurd and a little bit silly. At the very best all that will accomplish is to continue the stalemate.

This statement implies that mere criticism is sufficient to address Israeli behaviour.

Obviously not. However, supplementing your criticism with the wrong kind of action can guarantee that Israel's behavior will go unaddressed. I think that in this point in time the carrot is better than the stick.

 

[Robert]

Pakistan is an Islamic country with nuclear weapons, but they don't seem to care much about Israel and thus Israel doesn't care about Pakistan.

 

[Karlos]

Interesting that they chose a "dirty bomb" scenario. To me that's a tacit admission that they aren't particularly close to building a nuclear weapon (remember, nuclear != radiological). For Iran to produce a viable fission bomb, they'd need to highly enrich uranium, typically above 90%. The furthest they have achieved is around 20% which they claim is for producing isotopes of other elements used industrially/medically. Which is a reasonable enough claim, for example the same Cs 137 the article cites is used as a gamma source in radiotherapy. It could also be used as the basis of a radiological weapon. There is a well documented incident that occurred in Brazil that led to the deaths of four people and injury to ~200 others (radiation sickness) after scavengers found a source of this isotope at the site of an abandoned hospital and messed around with it, not realising what it was.

So, even if Iran is being completely honest about what it is using it's higher level enriched material for, it's good enough to use as an excuse to spread fear.

 

[Dammy]

Interesting that they chose a "dirty bomb" scenario. To me that's a tacit admission that they aren't particularly close to building a nuclear weapon (remember, nuclear != radiological). For Iran to produce a viable fission bomb, they'd need to highly enrich uranium, typically above 90%. The furthest they have achieved is around 20% which they claim is for producing isotopes of other elements used industrially/medically. Which is a reasonable enough claim, for example the same Cs 137 the article cites is used as a gamma source in radiotherapy.

That is what is being reported. What is not being reported is what the Iranians are doing in those underground secret sites. Judging that the elimination of Iranian nuclear scientist has picked up recently, some one is getting worried on their advancements.

 

[the_leander]

That is what is being reported. What is not being reported is what the Iranians are doing in those underground secret sites. Judging that the elimination of Iranian nuclear scientist has picked up recently, some one is getting worried on their advancements.

Or, you know, trying to stir up fear and resentment.

Given that the loonies in power can only realistically maintain their powerbase if there is an "enemy" it's hardly surprising actions like this have taken place.

 

[Glaucus]

Interesting that they chose a "dirty bomb" scenario. To me that's a tacit admission that they aren't particularly close to building a nuclear weapon (remember, nuclear != radiological).

You're making the assumption that this event was about an Iranian attack. I don't blame you for making that assumption as the article title would have you think that, but in the middle of the article it says:

Nobody talked about Iran during the event. But, as with so much of what goes on in Israel these days, thoughts of how the conflict over Iran's nuclear program might ultimately unfold lurked in people's minds.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that a terror attack in Israel could be in the form of a dirty bomb. On two separate incidents, bombs tied to cesium-137 were discovered in Moscow and in Grozny. Now, this also means you gotta believe what Russian authorities say. In the case of Israel, a dirty bomb may be a very poor choice as the winds could easily carry it out of Israel, harming the very people that planted it. Still, even a very small amount of radioactive material would achieve a good amount of terror which is the real weapon anyway.

 

[the_leander]

Given that there are drums of cesium 137 littering abandoned USSR era farms, I could well believe it if people have over the years helped themselves to it. I figure its really only a matter of time before such a device is successfully detonated.

 

[Karlos]

Given that there are drums of cesium 137 littering abandoned USSR era farms, I could well believe it if people have over the years helped themselves to it. I figure its really only a matter of time before such a device is successfully detonated.

Unless they knew what they were doing when handling it, they'd not last long. Cs-137 has a half-life of around 30 years and is a gamma source (Ok, technically it isn't the gamma source, the Barium 137 most of it directly beta decays into is, but meh). Basically, unprotected exposure to it is pretty deadly.

 

[the_leander]

Unless they knew what they were doing when handling it, they'd not last long. Cs-137 has a half-life of around 30 years and is a gamma source (Ok, technically it isn't the gamma source, the Barium 137 most of it directly beta decays into is, but meh). Basically, unprotected exposure to it is pretty deadly.

And they were spreading this crap on farmland in an effort to boost crop production (hence why the farms are abandoned).

 

[Karlos]

Are you sure it was Caesium? I'm struggling to think what the imagined benefit of that would have been.

 

[Karlos]

^ unless it was a 1950's style Science! / World Of Tomorrow idea involving atomic superveg.

Must... resist... tsar.... brocolli.... pearoast....