TSLA stock right now...?

Wayne

Wayne

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Hey Jim, everyone...

I've been watching lots of people on Youtube and other places screaming to "buy TSLA now!" "TSLA's going to $3000", etc.. I've been incrementally buying TSLA stock every week over the past year (fractions) but right now, it's my biggest loss leader.

I don't really know who to believe as far as it goes... All the so-called experts are saying it's going to go vertical. People I know personally are in the "wouldn't touch it with a 10-foot-pole" category.

I'm only talking about roughly $300 or so but I've already lost about $80 based on average price paid. Should I sell it and just take the hit, or keep plodding along and hope the "experts" are correct?

Wayne
 
I'm for sure not a stock market expert. But I've lived my whole life in the metro Detroit area, have worked two of the big 3, and several tier 1/2/3 automotive suppliers.

People keep saying Tesla is going to grow. But I ask where? Where can they? In terms of selling cars, I just don't see it. I they might gain a few more percent market share, but that is far from a rocket, and still leaves them squarely in overvalued territory compared to their rivals. They're boxed in. They are at their current max production. So to expand further will take a couple years. Years that their competitors are debuting are dedicated electric platforms for 2021 or 2022 model year against every single one of Tesla's current vehicles. There's not a single Tesla vehicle that will be the only vehicle in its segment, anymore. I don't see big growth for them in selling cars. I see their markets getting crowded in a hurry. Tesla may need to start dealing with the devil in regards to the dreaded "I" word (incentives) in a couple years, if they do expand their volume. (And, if they don't expand volume, well, they'll have to deal with the fallout of the declining market share. They might be able to -- Apple somehow does this -- but most companies can't.)

Tesla currently makes most (all?) of their profits on the carbon exchange market. That will be a declining market as more automakers introduce electric platforms, as well.

So their current profit engine is in decline, and they have significant challenges in making more cars, which is the item everyone associates them with.

Now, Tesla does more than sell cars, though. They develop software. Certainly automotive controls, should they choose to license them, could be a profit center for them. They're light years ahead of the big 3 on that front (chassis controls, powertrain controls, body controls, infotainment). But that's licensing their unique strength to their competition. Is that wise, long term? (Don't know. Maybe? Large manufacturing traditionally isn't a large margin business...) Autopilot seems like it is perpetually stuck at being two years away. It could be a massive profit potential, should they actually get there. But there are massive technological and legal problems left to face for it.

And, probably the most valuable thing Tesla brings to market is their batteries. Is there growth there? Certainly. But how much does profitability of them scale up, and is there a certain point that batteries just become a commodity (low margin) item?

I don't know the answers to all these questions... But I don't see anything that makes $3000 look like anything but fantasy. Of course, I'd never have guessed Apple would be where it is. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
Tesla's stock price is absolute lunacy by any traditional metric such as price to earnings, price to sales etc. The only wildcard I see at this point is Musk's sudden full embracing of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency. I see it as his Hail Mary pass to sustain (or grow) the ludicrous valuation of TSLA.

My personal opinion? Any speculative dollars should go into cryptocurrency.
 
As much as you are the website guy, you should really look into web3 and related cryptocurrency.

web3.jpg
 
So... Take the hit, or wait it out?
 
@Wayne

Electric cars won’t be mainstream until 2025/26 so if you sell now you will miss out. I would hold on to it. I have been buying Tesla stock since 2012 and haven’t sold any yet. Also don’t forget there are lots of EV stocks to buy and hold that are a lot cheaper than Tesla. They are no longer the only electric car company in the game. Since governments are making buying gas cars illegal in the coming years all new cars will be electric sooner than you expect.
 
Last edited:
Pyromania said:
@Wayne

Electric cars won’t be mainstream until 2025/26 so if you sell now you will miss out. I would hold on to it. I have been buying Tesla stock since 2012 and haven’t sold any yet. Also don’t forget there are lots of EV stocks to buy and hold that are a lot cheaper than Tesla. They are no longer the only electric car company in the game. Since governments are making buying gas cars illegal in the coming years all new cars will be electric sooner than you expect.
Click to expand...
But that's it, right? When electric cars are more mainstream in 2025 or so... Tesla certainly won't be the only player in the market. On the low end of the market, they have at least Toyota, GM, Kia/Hyundai and Volkswagen, who all will have mainstream Tesla competitors out in 2023 or 2024 MY. While on the high end, they have Porsche, BMW, Lamborghini, Cadillac, Jaguar, and others to deal with, too.

Where does Tesla fit in a market that crowded? I'd argue that they most look like a BMW. An entry level luxury through high performance luxury boutique brand. But compared to BMW, Tesla looks as such:

Volume (2020):
Tesla: 500,000
BMW: 2,000,000 (4x more)

Profit (2020):
Tesla: $721M (USD)
BMW: $4.6B (Converted to USD - 6x more)

Market Cap (2020):
BMW: $62B (Converted to USD)
Tesla: $641B (USD - 10x more)

Wait... What?? How the heck did we get here?

...and you're telling me that as the uniqueness of Tesla wanes, it is going to keep going up? I mean, maybe... The market obviously doesn't track with reality. See above. But I'd certainly not bet on that.
 
Wayne has only $300 invested so I think he will be safe, lol. You assuming Tesla will stand still in the coming years. They will continue to innovate and release lower priced cars. I’m not a staunch supporter on just Tesla per say, lots of EV innovations will be coming out from other players. Still, Tesla will do fine I believe.
 
Pyromania said:
Wayne has only $300 invested so I think he will be safe, lol. You assuming Tesla will stand still in the coming years. They will continue to innovate and release lower priced cars. I’m not a staunch supporter on just Tesla per say, lots of EV innovations will be coming out from other players. Still, Tesla will do fine I believe.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's a small investment and all investments are a gamble of some sort. Who knows how long the anti-reality field will last? I'd never have guessed it would get this far. But to jump over to gambling terms, I'd argue that you're getting a poor potential payout on something that has far worse odds of happening than most people seem to think.

As for rest of your comment... Yes, Tesla will continue to innovate. But their innovation rate seems to be stagnating and their big breakthrough (autopilot) still has significant hurdles.

Do you really think Tesla will sell lower priced cars? I'd argue they will never sell a car (at least in Western Europe and North America) slotted in below their current Model 3. It's a losing game to start throwing punches down in the GM, Kia, Toyota market. There's no margin, you'll tarnish your luxury boutique image, and if you value being a solvent company, you really don't want to get dragged into an incentive war with those guys. Best to walk away from that end. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they cancel the Model 3 in a few more years, to focus more on the higher end.

I think Tesla will survive. But stock market wise, I think it will be a long slide to slowly slip back toward reality.
 
Tesla already stated they will be selling a $25,000 car in the next 2-3 years.
 
This thread reminds me a lot of when I got my Amiga 500 in 1988 and PC users would argue with me that multitasking, capturing
video and pictures, stereo sound and lots of colors were not need on computers. Today the market would reject any new computer that did not have these features. The Amiga did not become the computer that everyone owned but it’s feature set was duplicated far and wide in the computer industry. I believe we are witnessing the same thing happening with cars. My nephew is six years old. I believe by the time he is old enough to drive there will be no new gas cars sold. I’m sure you will still be able to get used ones which will be vintage.
 
the cops don't like that "rolling stop" thing when it's done by humans, so it makes sense the robot overlords shouldn't be doing it either

a human had to program the car to do that rolling stop
 
The only thing I've learned about stocks is that by the time I hear of a hot "you should invest" opportunity, it's already too late..
 
Well Wayne, if you don't invest you can never make any gains. Please join the Electric car revolution when you are ready. The longer you wait the cheap and better electric cars get. Governments are cracking down on the sale of new gas cars so eventually, the only choice for new cars will be fully electric or plug-in hybrid.
 
Pyromania said:
Well Wayne, if you don't invest you can never make any gains. Please join the Electric car revolution when you are ready. The longer you wait the cheap and better electric cars get. Governments are cracking down on the sale of new gas cars so eventually, the only choice for new cars will be fully electric or plug-in hybrid.
Click to expand...
Until electric cars can go 1200 miles between plugs (the distance covered in a road trip to see family), I'm really not interested. I can see the upside to investing maybe, but Tesla is extraordinarily overvalued right now and about to face stiff competition.

That being said, I might be interested in a new Ford Maverick Hybrid pickup truck. The only problem is, you can't find them right now, and they're sold out for over a year's production.
 
@Wayne

News flash, Dr. Evil took over GM and electric cars from that manufacture will go one million miles per charge.
 
@Wayne

Almost all-electric cars are awesome, not just Tesla. Wait it out and pick and choose the one you like when the time is right for you. As far as investing goes, the soon the better, buy low then sell high.
 
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