cecilia said:
i'm aware that this guy was a complete idiot and didn't plan out this thing At ALL. my feeling is that he's just another nut and like the shoe bomber is emotional about his delusions but doesn't really know what the hell he's doing. people like them don't plan out this in cold blood.
It's hard to say whether he is just some deluded guy acting alone but I'd suspect that he is not. Or rather, delude3d he may be but acting alone probably not.
There is witness testimony that suggests that he got on the flight under unusual circumstances without a passport and being boarded by other than the normal protocol with the help of a well dressed man presenting him as a Sudanese refugee.
If he were a loner that was able to get his hands on PETN (not an outrageous impossibility) you would expect that he would at least have taken the time to get enough to prove his detonation method with a few tests. Failure to do so suggests either over confidence or that he was not the original planner. If he is competent enough to acquire the materials then he should be competent enough to make it work and not end up with the nasty surprise of a flaming groin and failed mission.
Either he was not the originator of the explosive plot and didn't know how to properly detonate the device or it wasn't meant to detonate - without knowing all the ingredients it's hard to say which it was but it seems likely it was the former though I wouldn't count out the latter.
That the man's father had alerted the authorities to his sons mysterious changes in lifestyle and attitude indicates that he may well have fallen under the influence of a group or individual. That he made it onto the terrorism watch list indicates that the concern was sufficient to be taken seriously - and that he failed to be put on the no fly list indicates that the no fly list is a load of cr@p which is no great surprise at all.
I think that there is sufficient grounds to infer that persons unknown were involved and that the intelligence agencies were at least engaged though apparently ineffectually, or they may have had sufficient access to cause the plot to fail.
It is also possible that the "bomber" was a Manchurian candidate, largely unaware of what was going on but conditioned to push the plunger on the syringe on a given signal. Such an act is not overtly suicidal so could be conditioned. On the other hand ideological indoctrination seems to be sufficient to make suicide bombers and suicide bombers make the best agents because they cannot rat out their co-conspirators. If it was a criminal group behind this then he was almost certainly supposed to die and this would be a very unsettling development.
If he was meant to fail then his handlers would all be protected individuals though he himself would believe himself to be a criminal.
I am interested to see if we'll learn any more but it'll probably fall out of the news cycle like the shoe bomber did - cop a plea and go to jail. The description of Reid's attempted attack, by the way, reads like the story of a guy trying to fail.