- Joined
- May 17, 2005
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"While it is a fact that increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere leads, all else equal, to higher atmospheric temperatures, the idea that we can predict the impact of global warming — and anti-global warming policies! — 100 years from now is sheer lunacy. But because it is done using math by people with tenure, we are told it is "science" even though by definition it is impossible to run an experiment on the year 2114."
Except we ARE running the experiment and we will have what we have by 2114. But it's not fair to constrain science to the repeatable experiment (that is also a popular misunderstanding of science). We can run experiments that demonstrate principles and quantify effects but for any of that work to be useful we need to try to apply that knowledge to things that have not yet happened. We learn to catch a ball by observing the motion of moving balls in our gravitational field. We then use these observations to create rules (not consciously, of course) and can use the rules to catch balls that have never been thrown before. It would be ridiculous to say that we had to watch the flight of every ball to know where it would go. Our theories of gravity and motion tell us to high precision where a ball is going to end up after observing just a small part of its flight - to good enough precision we can hit comets with robots from a hundred million kilometres away.
And we CAN do experiments on global warming and we do and we hone our models by going back in time and seeing if they can replicate what has already happened. We have an existing result set that we need to explain and the better we match the past data the more predictive our model should be (and really THAT is what science is about - building models that we can use to predict things whether it's the effect of a drug on an enzyme of the flow of air over a wing).