Ready for the next Ice Age? Winter is coming.

[FluffyMcDeath]

NOAA’s 2018 winter climate outlook predicted ‘warmer than normal’ temperatures

So... your criticism of climate models is to show a weather forecast?

Also, it's a very interesting scale being used there. Would you care to explain the meaning of the various colour bands?

There are climate "models", plural

Yes. There are also various models of gravity among other things.

the models predictions are not converging

What are they not converging to and where is your data?

There is this famous man, Johan Keppler, maybe you heard of him, he modeled the motions of the planets. What was his job? He was the royal mathematician and astrologer to the Hapsburg court. Did his correct modeling of planetary motion improve astrological predictions?

Johannes Kepler "modeled" the orbits of the planets according to the idea that the planets resided on nested spheres with radii proportional to the Platonic perfect solids on philosophical grounds. His modelling was not particularly correct and wasn't based on any principles of science unsurprisingly because science wasn't really a thing back then. What we can credit him for, IMO, is acknowledging that the astronomical measurements being made at the time could not be squared with the models of the time and a new framework of understanding was needed. Kepler's model also failed and Copernicus came along with the better maths, but we still had to wait for Newton to say WHY Copernicus' orbits were right.

Kepler's model was not right and even if it had been could not have improved astrological predictions because astrology is bunk. Our models for weather are built on principles that have been demonstrated to be fairly good (and in isolation even correct) but even from the early days of weather modelling it has been recognised that weather is a chaotic system and there is significant sensitivity to initial conditions - yet we still find value in weather forecasts as they narrow the amount of uncertainty even though they cannot eliminate it.

---edit---
My apologies to Kepler. I gave him short shrift. He did in fact realise himself that the spheres he was trying to fit the data to was not going to work and respected the data enough to l advance it over his own pet ideas. He did describe the correct basic shape of orbits and motions of planets (basically by curve fitting really) leaving Newton to describe why these curves worked.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

OK, I know this is from NASA, the masonic organisation that is trying to bury the truth of the flat earth by creating CGI pictures of globes, but ....

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=91517

 

[metalman]

So... your criticism of climate models is to show a weather forecast?

"The NOAA 2018 Winter Climate Outlook"
why would their prediction for 10 years from now be anymore accurate then their climate prediction 3 months away??

predicting the weather is predicting the specific Temperature and Rainfall for the next day or the next week
A climate prediction should be able to predict the trend of whether the winter will be colder or warmer than normal

The Farmers Almanac made a better prediction: WINTER OUTLOOK 2017–2018: COLDER THAN LAST YEAR

"Overall, the long-range winter forecast for 2017–2018 shows generally colder temperatures than last winter for the U.S. and Canada"

Also, it's a very interesting scale being used there. Would you care to explain the meaning of the various colour bands?

take it up with the NOAA

"Places where the forecast odds favor a much colder than usual winter (blue colors) or much warmer than usual winter (red), or where the probability of a cold winter, a warm winter, or a near-normal winter are all equal (white). The darker the color, the stronger the chance of that outcome (not the bigger the departure from average). NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data from NOAA CPC."

Yes. There are also various models of gravity among other things.

F /m = g g = 9.81 m/s^2

T = 288K

What are they not converging to and where is your data?

converging?? ROFL

Johannes Kepler "modeled" the orbits of the planets according to the idea that the planets resided on nested spheres with radii proportional to the Platonic perfect solids on philosophical grounds. His modelling was not particularly correct and wasn't based on any principles of science unsurprisingly because science wasn't really a thing back then. What we can credit him for, IMO, is acknowledging that the astronomical measurements being made at the time could not be squared with the models of the time and a new framework of understanding was needed. Kepler's model also failed and Copernicus came along with the better maths, but we still had to wait for Newton to say WHY Copernicus' orbits were right.

Kepler's model was not right and even if it had been could not have improved astrological predictions because astrology is bunk. Our models for weather are built on principles that have been demonstrated to be fairly good (and in isolation even correct) but even from the early days of weather modelling it has been recognised that weather is a chaotic system and there is significant sensitivity to initial conditions - yet we still find value in weather forecasts as they narrow the amount of uncertainty even though they cannot eliminate it.

---edit---
My apologies to Kepler. I gave him short shrift. He did in fact realise himself that the spheres he was trying to fit the data to was not going to work and respected the data enough to l advance it over his own pet ideas. He did describe the correct basic shape of orbits and motions of planets (basically by curve fitting really) leaving Newton to describe why these curves worked. Copernicus was more of a populariser, I guess.

you're confusing Tycho Brahe's theory with Kepler

after Tycho Brahe's unexpected death, Kepler was appointed Brahe's successor as imperial mathematician and astrologer, with the responsibility to complete Brahe's unfinished Star table.

Kepler used Brahe's observational data to discover the elliptical orbits of the planets through tedious mathematical computations

 

[metalman]

OK, I know this is from NASA, the masonic organisation that is trying to bury the truth of the flat earth by creating CGI pictures of globes, but ....

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=91517

you're confusing the ACTUAL NASA satellite winter weather measurement with the NOAA 2018 winter prediction made in October 2017

 

[metalman]

Rare Snowfall in the Sahara
for 2nd year in a row

https://twitter.com/x/status/950037309424128000

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

"The NOAA 2018 Winter Climate Outlook"
why would their prediction for 10 years from now be anymore accurate then their climate prediction 3 months away??

Predicting the weather 3 months in advance is still predicting the weather, not describing the climate. The climate is a long term average of weather. No actual instance of weather describes climate.

predicting the weather is predicting the specific Temperature and Rainfall for the next day or the next week
A climate prediction should be able to predict the trend of whether the winter will be colder or warmer than normal
[

Indeed, but you want a climate prediction to tell you which days it will be colder or warmer than normal.

take it up with the NOAA

"Places where the forecast odds favor a much colder than usual winter (blue colors) or much warmer than usual winter (red), or where the probability of a cold winter, a warm winter, or a near-normal winter are all equal (white). The darker the color, the stronger the chance of that outcome (not the bigger the departure from average). NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data from NOAA CPC."

Right, in other words, the bars on the map show the odds that it will be warmer or cooler in a region, not what temperature it will (or whether it will actually BE warmer or cooler).

converging?? ROFL

So they are almost all in agreement that it will get warmer.

you're confusing Tycho Brahe's theory with Kepler

No, I was confusing the role of Copernicus.

Copernicus came first and proposed that the solar system worked better if everything ran circles around the sun. Kepler believed that Copernicus was basically right but Brahe was not a heliocentrist. Kepler took Brahe's observations to correct the orbits of Copernicus.

 

[metalman]

Sahara Desert covered in 15 inches of SNOW

 

[Robert]

Sahara Desert covered in 15 inches of SNOW

More interesting for the precipitation than the cold. From the link:

Ain Sefra is about 1,000 metres above sea level and surrounded by the Atlas Mountains.

Its average temperature for January is 6C, with average lows at -0.3C.

 

[redrumloa]

New Hampshire’s Mount Washington Observatory Tied for 2nd Coldest Place on Earth at -36°F

The wind on Saturday at the observatory was recorded at 92 mph, with a wind chill of -89 degrees Fahrenheit.

 

[redrumloa]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1545820382168272

 

[metalman]

So they are almost all in agreement that it will get warmer.

Mean global ocean temperatures during the last glacial transition

Researchers now able to reconstruct past ocean temperatures

“Our precision is about 0.2 ºC (0.4 ºF) now, and the warming of the past 50 years is only about 0.1 ºC,” he said, adding that advanced equipment can provide more precise measurements, allowing scientists to use this technique to track the current warming trend in the world’s oceans.

 

[redrumloa]

Mean global ocean temperatures during the last glacial transition

Researchers now able to reconstruct past ocean temperatures

“Our precision is about 0.2 ºC (0.4 ºF) now, and the warming of the past 50 years is only about 0.1 ºC,” he said, adding that advanced equipment can provide more precise measurements, allowing scientists to use this technique to track the current warming trend in the world’s oceans.

And yet some people still follow the cult. It is an embarrassing statement on our educational systems and society on a whole that so many fall for this cult so easily.

Humans are supposed to have free will. What happened to allow such mass brainwashing? Is it all the television and pop culture?

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

And yet some people still follow the cult. It is an embarrassing statement on our educational systems and society on a whole that so many fall for this cult so easily.

Humans are supposed to have free will. What happened to allow such mass brainwashing? Is it all the television and pop culture?

CO2 interaction with IR, characterised and verified by experiment.
Atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased and has been measured to have increased.
Temperatures have increased and have been measured to have increased.
The human contribution of CO2 has been tracked by business and governments since the production and use is of great economic importance.
These things are not in doubt ... unless you think that all of this is a vast interdisciplinary conspiracy to rob you of a couple of bucks - or genocide your family - but believing that would put you outside of the cult, right? That's not cultish at all.

 

[cecilia]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/apos-frozen-alligators-survived-last-200117231.html

"
How Frozen Alligators Survived Last Week's Winter Blast" - because THAT'S completely normal (sarcasm).

btw, today we had a veritable heat wave at 43 degrees F (6 C) after a horrific week of 10 F (-12 C)

 

[redrumloa]

How Frozen Alligators Survived Last Week's Winter Blast" - because THAT'S completely normal (sarcasm).

Actually, being a native Floridian my whole life I can say these cold snaps aren't unusual. This year so far is nowhere near what we got in 2010. In my lifetime nothing tops the mid-late 70s. 77 is the year it snowed in Miami.

The coldest I remember (in Fort Lauderdale) was also 1977 when it stayed at 28F for 2 days. They closed down the schools due to the cold. Our garden hose had a slight drip. The end of it froze into a golf ball size piece of ice. That 28F ties the all time record set in 1917.

Granted, official records in Fort Lauderdale have only been kept since 1912. 100 years ago there was essentially nothing here but swamp land and a handful of tomato farms.

 

[Robert]

... the only place that is colder than normal right now is North America...

Even that is debatable (for a given value of "right now"):

2017 is the 21st consecutive year with above-average temperatures in the US. It ranks third on the all-time heat list, coming in at 1.45 degrees Celsius (2.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 20th century average. The US' five warmest years on record have all occurred after 2006. It was also the third year in a row that every single state experienced above-average temperatures. For five states, 2017 was the warmest year on record. All of which indicates a major trend in the US' temperatures.

 

[redrumloa]

Even that is debatable (for a given value of "right now"):

AGW proponents need to have a conference call to make sure their talking points all line up. One minute weather is not climate, next minute weather is climate. One minute Global warming is going to kill us with heat, next minute Climate Change is going to freeze us. One minute our kids will never see snow by 2009, next minute historic snowfall is proof of Global warming. One minute we have above average annual temps which is proof of Global Warming, next minute we have below average annual temps which is proof of Climate Change.

 

[redrumloa]

Satellite Images Capture Rare Snowfall in the Sahara Desert

 

[Robert]

AGW proponents need to have a conference call to make sure their talking points all line up. One minute weather is not climate, next minute weather is climate. One minute Global warming is going to kill us with heat, next minute Climate Change is going to freeze us. One minute our kids will never see snow by 2009, next minute historic snowfall is proof of Global warming. One minute we have above average annual temps which is proof of Global Warming, next minute we have below average annual temps which is proof of Climate Change.

Apart from the fact that the entire paragraph is a non-sequitur, the bit in bold is the only accurate statement.
A tiny bit more attention to detail and it could have been a full house of gibberish.
Bloody well played, all the same.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

AGW proponents need to have a conference call to make sure their talking points all line up. One minute weather is not climate, next minute weather is climate. One minute Global warming is going to kill us with heat, next minute Climate Change is going to freeze us. One minute our kids will never see snow by 2009, next minute historic snowfall is proof of Global warming. One minute we have above average annual temps which is proof of Global Warming, next minute we have below average annual temps which is proof of Climate Change.

These aren't the things that climate scientists are saying - these are the straw men that are being set up by PR groups to have easy targets to knock down. You aren't attacking the science, you are just attacking the nonesense that anti-science groups say scientists say. This is like the stuff creationists do when they say "scientists say you came from a monkey - isn't that crazy?"