Ready for the next Ice Age? Winter is coming.

redrumloa said:
They set that limit at -25°C to be on the safe side. The zoo currently keeps 51 penguins, some of which are very young. The zoo explained that in the wild the penguins are physiologically capable of withstanding colder temperatures, but as they aren't wild penguins it's being cautious with its flock.
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Yup. Penguins can go much colder, and perhaps if they just left a door open they could go in and out at will and would be smart enough to choose the warm - but the zoo is protecting its investment and pampering the birds.

Now, maybe they are a little soft down in Calgary, after all they get those lovely Chinooks from time to time to break up the winter, but I lived in Edmonton for half a dozen years and -25C isn't all that cold. -30C is fine for skating and cross country skiing. -40C is getting a bit cold. It's hard to dress for that.

But I just looked up the current temperature for Edmonton and it's 0C. Zero!!!! Normal for January is about -15C so it's 15C above normal today for the season. In Fahrenheit that means it is 59F above normal!!!!!!
 
DSmJlR3UMAAP6qp.jpg:large
 
Snow in Florida: Flakes fly in Tallahassee

In preparation, the mayor of Jacksonville closed city offices to all but essential personnel on Wednesday, advising people to stay off the roads. In Tallahassee, Florida State University announced that classes would remain closed Wednesday.

This morning, troopers closed a 50-mile stretch of Interstate 10 east of Tallahassee due to ice. Several law enforcement agencies issued warnings to drivers to be extra careful on slick roads.

As unlikely as it is, I hope the snow reaches the Fort Lauderdale area. Officially it has only snowed once down here, and that was in January 1977. Unofficially, my oldest son and others saw and even recorded flurries in 2010, but that was not recognized as sufficient evidence to go on record. I hope we get a foot of snow ;-)
 
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Remember those predictions that South Florida would be under water by 2020? Yeah not going to happen, so a new narrative has to be created.

The Bottom of the Ocean Is Sinking

The accuracy of future sea-level estimates could be notably improved if the sinking of the ocean floor were incorporated into the calculations, "either based on modeled estimates of ocean mass change, as was done in this study, or using more direct observations," the scientists concluded.
 
redrumloa said:
Remember those predictions that South Florida would be under water by 2020? Yeah not going to happen, so a new narrative has to be created.

The Bottom of the Ocean Is Sinking

The accuracy of future sea-level estimates could be notably improved if the sinking of the ocean floor were incorporated into the calculations, "either based on modeled estimates of ocean mass change, as was done in this study, or using more direct observations," the scientists concluded.
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That's right. Suddenly the "scientists" figured out that Florida wouldn't sink by 2020 - something that they had just made up completely to trick people out of money .... which the scientists somehow never got, but that's a problem they can work on another day, so they decided they needed to make up a new lie to cover up why their old lie didn't pan out and people would make them pay back that money they never got.

Or, they are refining their models to give better predictions. You'd have to be a real kook to believe that last one though.
 
FluffyMcDeath said:
Or, they are refining their models to give better predictions. You'd have to be a real kook to believe that last one though.
Click to expand...

Or their current models are worthless at predictions, BUT they hope the NEXT version will give better predictions
 
FluffyMcDeath said:
That's right. Suddenly the "scientists" figured out that Florida wouldn't sink by 2020 - something that they had just made up completely to trick people out of money .... which the scientists somehow never got, but that's a problem they can work on another day, so they decided they needed to make up a new lie to cover up why their old lie didn't pan out and people would make them pay back that money they never got.

Or, they are refining their models to give better predictions. You'd have to be a real kook to believe that last one though.
Click to expand...

You haven't been paying attention. It is all one huge scam to trick people out of their money and to create 2 classes of people globally. This isn't a conspiracy theory, it is indisputable fact. Many of the facts have been posted here over the years, but the religious types who follow the Cult Of Global Warming ignore the facts and go on faith.

There is no AGW, period. All we have is a thoroughly discredited "theory". Every single one of their predictions have failed. Mockumentaries such as "Inconvenient Truth" and carbon credit scams have made a select few such as Al Gore fabulously wealthy.

Al Gore couldn't yet call himself a multimillionaire when he briefly slipped from public life after his presidential election loss to George W. Bush.

Al Gore has a total net worth of $300 million as of May 2017, according to Celebrity Net Worth.

Follow the money. It's kind of funny how AGW supporters like to dismiss Al Gore references these days. These same people were staunch supporters of his and the "science" behind his mockumentary when it came out in 2006. Hell, it was shown in public schools at the time and kids were given tests on it.

What a joke.

avP108b_700b.jpg
 
Here's a short ~7 minute video for your Fluffy. Despite this guy's statement that AGW is fact, I agree with the rest of his views.


-Edit-
and for the fun of it...

 
"Weather is not climate" <--Except when that weather fits the cult narrative, then weather is proof of climate.

This ‘Bitter Cold’ Is What Global Warming Looks Like, Explains Al Gore

https://twitter.com/x/status/949050335074582528
The same Dr. Mann from the infamous and proven fraudulent Hockey Stick graph? LMAO! How embarrassing! ROFLMMFAO!!!

In other news.

Winter Storm Grayson Kills at Least 8; Hundreds More Flights Canceled as Northeast Digs Out

At a Glance
  • Winter Storm Grayson's death toll has risen to eight in the South and Northeast.
  • Hundreds more flights were canceled Friday at major Northeast hubs impacted by the storm.
  • Residents rushed to clear snow ahead of an intense cold blast.
 
redrumloa said:
"Weather is not climate" <--Except when that weather fits the cult narrative, then weather is proof of climate.

This ‘Bitter Cold’ Is What Global Warming Looks Like, Explains Al Gore
Click to expand...

So, the only place that is colder than normal right now is North America with just about every other part of the world being warmer than normal and this means what? That the earth isn't warmer overall? This is not the first year we have seen like this, where the polar air moves further south than normal, but when it does, the North Pole gets warmer. How tight do you have to close your eyes when you see the maps in the links you push to argue your side. Or perhaps you just post headlines without reading the articles.

The same Dr. Mann from the infamous and proven fraudulent Hockey Stick graph? LMAO! How embarrassing! ROFLMMFAO!!!
Click to expand...
Wasn't proven - was only alleged and the allegations repeated. I spent quite a lot of time looking at this when it first came out. Turns out the outrage and frothing was on very flimsy, and ultimately illusory and largely misrepresented grounds.

At a Glance
  • Winter Storm Grayson's death toll has risen to eight in the South and Northeast.
  • Hundreds more flights were canceled Friday at major Northeast hubs impacted by the storm.
  • Residents rushed to clear snow ahead of an intense cold blast.
Click to expand...

Yeah. It's winter. It gets cold. And, from time to time, globs of Arctic air head south bringing arctic temperatures with them. And when cold air moves from the arctic to where you are, it gets colder where you are but that doesn't mean the whole world got colder.
 
redrumloa said:
Remember those predictions that South Florida would be under water by 2020? Yeah not going to happen, so a new narrative has to be created.
Click to expand...

You've made a claim here that there were such predictions. I don't remember this prediction and I have been unable to find one like it on the internet. Can you point us to it? And is it a serious scientific prediction or it is a straw-man set up by a PR company? If that narrative was never put forward than claiming that there is a new one being put forward now is an less supportable position.
 
FluffyMcDeath said:
Maybe you should start a darts thread instead of polluting this thread with darts.
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the topic is models that predict future weather events, throwing darts to predict the weather is just as accurate as using the models

Improving the dart throwing technique doesn't improve the future weather prediction using darts
 
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metalman said:
the topic is models that predict future weather events, throwing darts to predict the weather is just as accurate as using the models
Click to expand...
The darts "analogy" is non sequitor. It doesn't relate to weather, nor models, nor difference in accuracy.
Improving the dart throwing technique doesn't improve the future weather prediction using darts
Click to expand...
The dart throwing technique illustrated is only useful with regards to getting under a dart that is obscuring the target from a top approach and has nothing to do with accuracy.
Weather isn't predicted by dart throws.
Climate isn't predicted by dart throws.
Science can show how this darts technique works and it also show how it can be cold right now in North America while the world as a whole is warming (and why).
Then there is the "prediction" of where the darts would go and the measurement of where the darts went. The better the model, the closer those two numbers get. Your weather is forecast by models and when they tell you to expect cold they often get it right more than just rolling dice (or throwing darts) would. Modern climate models are tracking closer and closer to climate - and if you think that running models against reality is just "curve fitting" go back to your darts model and find the word "parabola". Testing models to measurement is not only legit, it's the necessary thing to do.
 
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FluffyMcDeath said:
Science can show how this darts technique works and it also show how it can be cold right now in North America while the world as a whole is warming (and why).
Then there is the "prediction" of where the darts would go and the measurement of where the darts went. The better the model, the closer those two numbers get. Your weather is forecast by models and when they tell you to expect cold they often get it right more than just rolling dice (or throwing darts) would. Modern climate models are tracking closer and closer to climate - and if you think that running models against reality is just "curve fitting" go back to your darts model and find the word "parabola". Testing models to measurement is not only legit, it's the necessary thing to do.
Click to expand...


NOAA’s 2018 winter climate outlook predicted ‘warmer than normal’ temperatures

DS9TV0aU8AAUIm5.jpg



There are climate "models", plural

A very simple model of the radiative equilibrium of the Earth is

{\displaystyle (1-a)S\pi r^{2}=4\pi r^{2}\epsilon \sigma T^{4}}
607fd77201d2d99d9190773fd68133d284a4eb5a


it says the temperature of the earth is 288K (15C, 59F)

there are 8 different major types of models, there are literally 100's of variations of the major models tweeked by competing universities, all making predictions

the models predictions are not converging

There is this famous man, Johan Keppler, maybe you heard of him, he modeled the motions of the planets. What was his job? He was the royal mathematician and astrologer to the Hapsburg court. Did his correct modeling of planetary motion improve astrological predictions?
 
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