Ready for the next Ice Age? Winter is coming.

[ilwrath]

The Arctic is only cold enough to hold a polar vortex in the Summer, in the winter the polar vortex always wanders to the land surrounding the arctic ocean

As I understand it, that is actually backwards. The colder the arctic temperatures, the stronger (more contained) the arctic vortex. The vortex breaks down over the northern hemisphere summer, and should strengthen in the winter. Though the past few northern hemisphere winters have not been cold enough to properly contain it. The vortex weakening down to this level and wandering this far south was a rare thing even just a few decades ago. This could be due to arctic and Siberian ice loss. It's not that there is overall cooling, it is that northern latitudes are warming.

https://www.aer.com/science-researc...forecasts/polar-vortex-impact-winter-weather/

 

[redrumloa]

Every year you do the 'look, it's cold in one place so that proves it's not getting hotter'. The depth of the fallacy it pointed out each time but it leaves no detectable trace on you. It cannot be that you have not heard it, so it may be that you have not understood it. Can you tell me why it is that I would say that a few cold days in one place on the earth doesn't disprove a rising global temperature? Are you able to state the argument that I would make?
Once you have done that, if I agree you have formulated it correctly, then you can go on to show me why that argument would be wrong.

You can't have your cake and eat it too, but this is exactly what AGW cultists try to do. They beat the drum that "weather is not climate", and yet every single time temperatures are a degree above average one day, they scream and yell pointing to it as proof positive of Global Warming. Every time a hurricane or tornado comes through an area, it is pointed to as proof positive of Global Warming. Every newspaper, TV, and AGW cult member on forums points to it as proof positive. Even on this forum we've had member(s) point to individual weather events as idiot-proof positive example of Global Warming. When those claims are made, they aren't widely disputed because it fits the cult narrative.

When the opposite happens, like a way below average hurricane season, Global Warming is blamed either blamed again, or it is brushed off as unrelated. Any time you get extreme cold weather events, again it is either pointed to as proof of Global Warming, or brushed off as just weather <> climate.

Global Warming is the biggest scam in human history. Since they were proven wrong, they moved the goal posts to make it "Climate Change". They are soon to move the goal posts once again, and just call it "extreme weather". Extreme weather has happened throughout human history and in prehistory since the forming of the planet. Just because a big lie makes people feel good about themselves that they are trying to "save the planet", doesn't mean that lie isn't a lie.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

You can't have your cake and eat it too, but this is exactly what AGW cultists try to do.

But you aren't talking about me there. I still stick with the "weather isn't climate". Even the picture you posted shows that this cold is just a small blob of cold arctic air that has blown unusually far south.

they scream and yell pointing to it as proof positive of Global Warming.

If the news (I presume you are talking about the media) talks to a scientist about the weather they always say that you can't tell the climate from the weather and we can't say if any particular hot weather event is directly tied to global warming, though we can expect them more often with warming climate. What you are saying climate scientists say is not what they say but a parody that someone with an agenda says they say. Someone is building strawmen for you to bat down, but most people will just shake their heads because they can see that they a straw.

Global Warming is the biggest scam in human history. Since they were proven wrong, they moved the goal posts to make it "Climate Change".

Climate change is global warming and they haven't been proven wrong, but proven right. You live in an interesting parallel bubble. Up until 2005 Global Warming was still the most often used term, but the Dubya administration never used that term during their rule but consistently called it Climate Change (and avoided "human caused" as well because it was, after all, run by the oil friendly president Cheney). That messaging was pushed out explicitly to the Republican party and around 2005 it was pushed down from the top through the National Academies of Sciences and EPA as the "preferred" term to use.

The "they" that changed the term were oil industry PR firms and political operatives who wanted "Global Warming" replaced with a less threatening sounding term, not the scientists themselves. The PR effort is now disingenuously leveraging that by claiming that it was the scientists that wanted to change the words usage because the warming had paused, but the warming has also never paused. That was a statistical trick created by carefully choosing a starting temperature date to fit a slope to. While it is possible to find pairs of years you can play this curve fitting trick on, the temperature record viewed over decades makes it completely clear what is happening, and even though you profess favour for electric vehicles and I presume you don't advocate for wasting energy, you are completely in the camp of those people who make money and hold power on the basis of making sure that the world still needs oil for everything - and you go along with it because they are able to offer the hope that everything is fine and your grand kids will still be able to survive on the planet you are helping to leave to them.

 

[redrumloa]

Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon?

Earth's north magnetic pole is so out of whack that scientists need to update the global magnetic-field model they released only four years ago. Could that be a sign that the magnetic pole will flip soon?

A Displaced Polar Vortex and Its Causes

A third potential factor in Polar Vortex behavior is that “geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind parameters)” plays a role in the “variability of large-scale climate patterns and on changes in the global temperature.”, i.e.:

 

[redrumloa]

Nolte: Experts Claim Every Kind of Weather Proves Global Warming Is Fer’ Real

Naturally, this launched a million reactionary headlines from our oh-so objective, unbiased, not-at-all left-wing media.

“Look at This Embarrassing F*cking Moron,” screamed Esquire.

“Debunking the utter idiocy of Donald Trump’s global warming tweet,” pouted CNN.

“Here’s Why the Crazy Cold Temperatures Prove Global Warming is Real,” Forbes says reassuringly.

“What Trump keeps getting wrong about Global Warming,” the Washington Post helpfully reports.

But here is my personal favorite headline from, where else?, NBC News…. “Yes, it can be this cold outside in a time of global warming.”

There are three Party slogans in George Orwell’s 1984, his masterpiece about an all-controlling centralized government that runs on lies, terror, and propaganda. See if you can pick out which Party slogan I invented among the four:

• War is Peace
• Freedom is Slavery
• Ignorance is Strength
• Frigid Weather Means Our Planet is Getting Warmer

The Climate Hoaxsters say that this run of cold weather does not mean the planet will not warm over the course of years, which would sound reasonable if these were not the same Climate Hoaxters who told us Global Warming meant the “end of snow,” or that this winter would be “warmer-than-average,” or that a run of warm weather last winter proved the planet is warming.

That last example is interesting, no?

You see, last year our Climate Hucksters told us a run of warm weather proved the planet is warming, which means we all have to give up our freedoms to a centralized government in order to save the planet. BUT… a run of frigid weather this year also proves the planet is warming and we all have to give up our freedoms to a centralized government in order to save the planet.

So no matter what happens, no matter how cold or warm or temperate it is, everything proves Global Warming is fer real.

Hey, remember when the Climate Grifters told us Global Warming would make hurricanes worse?

Remember how, when that scientific prediction was humiliated in the face of record low hurricane activity, these same Climate Grifters told us this lack of hurricane activity proved Global Warming was really fer real?

Remember in 2005 when the establishment media told us that by 2015 Global Warming would drive gas up to $9 a gallon (it’s $2.08 here today), milk up to $12 a gallon ($2.99), and New York City would be underwater?

Remember how during that crucial time between 2005 and 2015, that decade before the imminent flooding of Manhattan, the establishment media did not remove any of its personnel from a New York City that was about to be drowned? In fact, while CNN was telling us the seas were certain to rise, CNN shifted much of its base of operations from the inland safety of Atlanta to Manhattan; while CNN’s then-parent company, Time Warner, spent billions relocating its headquarters just two blocks from the water’s edge in New York.

And, soon enough, I’ll be asking if you remember how Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — a sitting member of Congress — went on TV and said the world would end in 12 yearsbecause of Global Warming.

You see, no matter what happens, no matter what the weather looks like, no matter how false their predictions turn out to be, no matter often they act as though they don’t believe in Global Warming, the Climate Swindlers still scream See! See! Toldjaso! — and almost always do it from a wildly expensive base of operations on the same coast they claim will soon be underwater.

Any student of history can look back and discover that all of history’s mass-murdering socialists — from Hitler to Stalin to Mao — have manufactured audacious lies and scapegoats as a means to consolidate power into a malevolent Central Authority.

Freedom is Slavery.

War is Peace.

Ignorance is Strength.

Cooling is Warming.

 

[redrumloa]

Be safe out there.

Iowa Forecasters Warn Against Breathing Outside Amid Deep Freeze

CBS Chicago reports:

In addition to the usual dress in layers and cover your mouth warnings, the NWS in Des Moines said, “to protect your lungs from severely cold air, avoid taking deep breaths; minimize talking.”

A wind chill advisory is in effect until 6 p.m. Tuesday, followed by a wind chill warning through noon Thursday, as temperatures are expected to reach as low as 23 below zero Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with wind chills ranging from 30 to 55 below.​

At least four deaths were linked to the weather system, including a man struck and killed by a snow plow in the Chicago area, a young couple whose SUV struck another on a snowy road in northern Indiana and a Milwaukee man found frozen to death in a garage.

 

[metalman]

This implies that the Arctic summer is colder than its winter.

The +delta temperature between the ocean and the surrounding land is greatest in the summer
The ocean temperature at the north pole is −2 °C (28 °F) year round, the air temperature over land rises in the summer creating a large +delta T
In the winter, the air temperature over land can cool much lower than −2 °C (28 °F) creating a large -deltaT

 

[redrumloa]

Chicago today. The temperature there didn't get above -27C (-17F) today.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Nolte: Experts Claim Every Kind of Weather Proves Global Warming Is Fer’ Real

The article failed to live up to its headline. Make a claim like that and we'd expect to see a healthy list of specific examples. Nothing here.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Chicago today. The temperature there didn't get above -27C (-17F) today.

Red: Hey guys, It's really cold in the Midwest for a few weeks and that proves global warming is a hoax.
Guys: No it doesn't.
Red: Oh yeah? Well, what if I told you, that for a couple of weeks .... it was really cold in the Midwest?
Guys: That's you just saying exactly the same thing again, Red.
Red: OK, but like,...
Guys: Yes?
Red: how about ... for some weeks ...
Guys: Uh-huh
Red: in, like you know, ... the Midwest ...
Guys: ...
Red: it's cold!!
Guys: Well, look at the time. How'd it get so late? We need to be off. G'night Red.

 

[Robert]

The article failed to live up to its headline. Make a claim like that and we'd expect to see a healthy list of specific examples. Nothing here.

Indeed, "Experts claim" should be followed by quotes from at least two experts but not a single one.
Then again, it's an article from Breitbart which ironically spends most of its time criticising "fake" output of other news outlets.
At least the lack of self-awareness is amusing.

The almost palpably seething overuse of hoaxsters, grifters and huxsters is pretty funny too

 

[redrumloa]

Red: Hey guys, It's really cold in the Midwest for a few weeks and that proves global warming is a hoax.
Guys: No it doesn't.
Red: Oh yeah? Well, what if I told you, that for a couple of weeks .... it was really cold in the Midwest?
Guys: That's you just saying exactly the same thing again, Red.
Red: OK, but like,...
Guys: Yes?
Red: how about ... for some weeks ...
Guys: Uh-huh
Red: in, like you know, ... the Midwest ...
Guys: ...
Red: it's cold!!
Guys: Well, look at the time. How'd it get so late? We need to be off. G'night Red.

The same person who says "don't put words in my mouth", puts words in someone else's mouth. Classic. You ignore examples I point out as to why I highlight cold weather examples. Robert too builds up straw man to give himself LOLs or some nonsense. BTW Robert, it is not a Hungarian conspiracy, George Soros is hated in his native Hungary. He is hated by a majority of his countryman. Anyhow this thread continues to prove that Global Warming is a hoax. There is no scientific method being followed. Every model that has been put forth has been proven false. Back in 2000 we were told out children would not know what snow is. Snow would be a thing of the past. Every single one of those children, and even some born after that proclamation, are all grown adults now. Each one of these examples are glossed over.

AGW BELIEVERS REPLACE SCIENTIFIC METHOD WITH DOGMA PT. 2: SUPPRESSING DISSENT

People caught in the grips of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), the idea that human activities, primarily fossil fuel use, are causing catastrophic change in the world’s climate, seem to live with blinders on, unable to admit evidence to the contrary.

I don’t begrudge the opinion of scientists who believe their own research shows, or who believe the dominant number of peer-reviewed papers indicates, humans are causing dangerous climate change. But I do disagree with many of the assumptions made by proponents of AGW. So far, evidence shows most of their projections concerning temperatures, ice, hurricanes, species extinction, etc. have failed. As a result, their projections of future climate conditions are not nearly trustworthy enough to make the kind of fundamental, wrenching, and costly changes to our economy and systems of government AGW proponents have proposed to fight climate change. I don’t think climate scientists can foretell the future any better than the average palm reader.

Making matters worse, AGW proponents discount, or ignore entirely, powerful studies that seem to undermine many of their assumptions and refute most of their conclusions.

-edit-
Since we're putting words in each other's mouths, I find it rather bizarre that the same people who look at the chaos happening in France say in one breath "man that's messed up", will follow up with their next breath "I want that here!". :smh:

 

[Robert]

BTW Robert, it is not a Hungarian conspiracy

So why did you imply it was when I ridiculed your hero for claiming it was a Chinese one?

That's almost - but not quite - in the same league of stupid as claiming global warming is a Chinese hoax.

George Soros is not Chinese, he's a Hungarian...

Oh and:

to give himself LOLs or some nonsense

I'd estimate about 90% of my time on this website these days is for "teh LOLs" and within that about 99.9% of my interactions with you around global warming.

Chinese conspiracies, Nazi collaborators and "greatest hoax in the history of mankind", all in the face of piles of scientific evidence?
Any hope of serious discussion with you on this subject sailed down a melting glacier about 15 years ago so of course it's for a laugh.
What else could it possibly be for?

-EDIT-
And watching you complain about people putting words into your mouth is the hundreds-and-thousands on top of the cherry on top of the icing on top of the empire biscuit.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

The same person who says "don't put words in my mouth", puts words in someone else's mouth. Classic.

It's a fiction based on real events.
You presented the current cold snap as indicative of a global phenom - and it was rebutted as a transient weather event, with a mechanism that has been shared with you over the successive winters it has occurred in, and your response, three time, has been to argue by pointing again at exactly the same same event. That is what happened.

I hear, and scientists have heard the rebuttals and criticisms etc, and yet the consensus is that the best evidence shows the planet is warming and it's due primarily to CO2 and even if you don't agree that that is the #1 driver then it's still hard to argue against the fact that the only major contributor to the problem that we can actually do anything about is CO2 - and it's getting even harder to argue that we continue to need CO2 generating sources for our power.

If I can go down the analogy path once more: We know that fire creates heat and smoke. The house has become incredibly hot and smokey in the last few minutes - it seems prudent to assume that the house is on fire and we should go outside but your son is in the middle of playing some online game - and you know you can't pause that!! So he says, "have you considered that you might have left the kettle on? The kettle makes heat" and "maybe someone's having a cigar outside and the window is open letting in smoke" and on and on. Clearly in the face of such excuse making because he doesn't want to stop what he is enjoying you at least have the option of saving yourself, but on this planet we are all roped together. The worst case scenario if the house is not on fire is everyone goes outside and then they go back in. The worst case scenario if the house is on fire is everybody dies in a horrible way.

If AGW is not real but we stop putting more carbon into the air than nature can take out the worst case scenario is we're wearing sweaters in winter, our cars are electric and our energy is renewable. The worst case is .... everybody dies in a horrible way. Of course, there IS a bad outcome for one set of people - the people who make vast sums of money on fossil fuels and use some of that money to fund places like the Heartland Institute.

 

[redrumloa]

Fluffy, it is dogma not scientific method. All of their models have been proven wrong. All the dire predictions based on those models have never happened. By now we were supposed to never see snow again, ever. The oceans were supposed to start boiling off by now. It's a hoax. I post about cold weather events, because we were told they would be a thing of the past. Since it is dogma and not science, this is glossed over.

 

[ilwrath]

Well, by the same token, if you want to disagree with the nonsense headlines media has covered global warming with... Be my guest. There's a lot of garbage reporting out there. We all know it. Of course, the reports of boiling oceans have been debunked as pure media bullshit, and not having been said by any scientist ever, but hey, just keep throwing it out there as being from scientists, time and again. Everyone loves to repeat bullshit claims! As if repeating them somehow makes them more real. For the scary part, if you say something enough times, a lot of people really do believe it. Still, that doesn't make it less bullshit.

If you want to disagree with how we have approached proposed "solutions"... Be my guest. Carbon credits and bickering over car emissions while ignoring massive contributors like concrete production, 3rd world deforestation, and China flippin' the double middle finger and saying they'll just do what they want... I'd totally agree with you. A lot of the proposed solutions are largely brain-dead. Hillary Clinton coming out and being joyful and bragging about how she'd close an industry that has provided life and livelihood to good hard-working families for generations? That fuckin' shit hurts. I get it, man. There's that urge to equally joyfully laugh and call it all bunk when Chicago or New York freezes their collective asses off for a couple days. It's hard not to be emotionally invested.

...but emotions don't do anything about the massive preponderance of data showing that overall, shit still be gettin' hotter. A few cold days in a few parts, caused by a phenomenon explained by overall planetary heating... isn't a convincing argument otherwise.

I choose to stick by logic and science because there are facts that can be validated and replicated. Sure, mistakes can be made. Theories can miss the mark. But, overall, it's starting to reach the point of absurd trying to say the planet isn't heating up. If you want to say the climate models aren't exact, I'd ask you to show me one for any complex system that is. For example, I like driving sims. Go ahead and show me one simulation that manages to get something as comparatively simple as the interaction between tire and track right, without resorting to fudging some numbers. Yet the overall outcome is still based on much more data than a feeling is.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Fluffy, it is dogma not scientific method. All of their models have been proven wrong. All the dire predictions based on those models have never happened. By now we were supposed to never see snow again, ever. The oceans were supposed to start boiling off by now. It's a hoax. I post about cold weather events, because we were told they would be a thing of the past. Since it is dogma and not science, this is glossed over.

Everything you say here is either a gross mischaracterisation of something or straight up not correct.

Snow is a thing of the past:

We have one article that is no longer linked on the original site but is SO devastating that it has been archived by those who pick these kinds of cherries. If you read it you see, as is typical of newspaper articles, that the headline over-sells the story. The story itself is about Britain, and the timescale is vague: "However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”." and since he's at the U of East Anglia he may here be quoted specifically in relation to East Anglia as mentioned in the article "Fen skating, once a popular sport on the fields of East Anglia, now takes place on indoor artificial rinks. Malcolm Robinson, of the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club in Peterborough, says they have not skated outside since 1997. “As a boy, I can remember being on ice most winters. Now it’s few and far between,” he said."
Ultimately Viner says: "Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. “We’re really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time,” he said." Now 20 years on is he right on the money (ignoring the "probably" caveat)? No, he has landed somewhat wide, and yet the trend is for less snow. While most of the country could count on at least 4 or 5 days of snow (or sleet) fall, the number of snowdays for the country are half what they were in the 60s and snow free winters are now the norm in parts of the south.

You say that all of the models have been proven wrong but that is simply untrue. The first climate model has done quite well. There are many other, newer models, and while they don't all agree, they do tend to tell the same story. Remember that models are simulations of chaotic systems and cannot ever give you an exact emulation of events, but they point you at likely averages.

As far as the oceans boiling off by now - I cannot find any reference to anyone who said that in seriousness.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Part 1

Part 2

The hilarious

and the scary

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

The point, I hope, is clear. Small things can become big fast. The changes that will run away in the end can appear slow and nonthreatening at first, perhaps even manageable, but they can transition, sometimes more rapidly than at other times, into something that is utterly beyond our ability to deal with. And things are happening.

Up here in Canada (and Alaska) we have a lot of permafrost, and we take an interest in what is happening to it.

The Russians have a lot of permafrost too.

And in the places that glaciers and winter snowfall are an important source of water for the people:

When those people can't live where they live any more - many will die, but many more will try not to - will move where they can - and it'll take a heck of a wall to significantly discourage them from trying to claim a life in the wealthy nations - and sometimes I wonder whether Canada shouldn't build one.

 

[Robert]

Meanwhile in Australia ...

On that note:
Disaster in the outback
Searing heat, severe drought and official mismanagement have allowed rivers in south-eastern Australia to run dry.

Temperatures have hit 47C (117F) in southern Australia where an extraordinary heatwave has come amid one of the worst droughts in the country’s recorded history. In large parts of the Murray-Darling basin – an area of land the size of Egypt – little rain is expected for months. Fish are dying in their hundreds of thousands at Menindee and people living in towns and on properties along the Barwon-Darling river system are battling to secure water fit for drinking and washing and to feed their stock.