Socialists win Greece

[Glaucus]

I think a number of factors contributed here. The Olympics alone may not have sunk Greece if the housing bubble burst in the US maybe five years later. Timing is obviously a factor, but it's also likely that Greece's debt may have continued to grow uncontrollably. Once you go down the path of deception it's hard to get off it and it was a path Greece was on well before the Olympics. But then again, it may be deception that ultimately gets Greece out of this mess too. Who knows. Most Greeks I've talked to think they'll get through this somehow. And I see that Papandreou has been talking to China and Russia looking for help. Does he really want to make a deal with them or just place a bit of pressure on the EU for a bit more support?

Not sure if the austerity program takes effect for the 2009 tax year, but if so we should see soon enough how effective it will be when the Greeks file their taxes. I haven't heard too many details, but one little trick they're using to force store keepers to declare their true earnings (where most transactions are cash deals and without a receipt) is to give a tax break to customers who declare their receipts when they file their personal income tax. The idea is Greeks will now want to ask for and get a receipt forcing the store owner to declare a more accurate income. That might work, but in many areas the customers are foreign tourists and they will never see the incentive for that. Also, Greece is full of small store owners who will probably all decide that they will never ask for a receipt and just forgo the personal tax break as they know under declaring their business income is still more lucrative.

 

[Glaucus]

An interesting article on George Papandreou and the challenge that he faces. One glimmer of hope: His austerity program seems well accepted as the polls show his popularity going up. So far he seems to be the right man for the job.

 

[Glaucus]

I seem to be the only one interested in all of this, but for those who find this somewhat interesting I do suggest downloading this pdf: AthensPlus Feb 19, 2010

And yes, it's all in English and very well written too.

The main reason I'm linking this is because of what's on page 12: an article written by Walter Wullenweber titled Expensive Friend. It quickly describes many of the same things I mentioned in prior posts - it might be more convincing coming from a journalist for the German Stern magazine. Fluffy, I think once you read this you'll see that the common currency, although it may have played a role, isn't the real problem because Greece received so much hard cash from the EU which should have offset any problems it caused.

On page 9 you'll see a more detailed description about the plan to force everyone to declare receipts for a tax break: The receipt chase is on. I can only imagine there will be a huge increase in receipt printers in Greece in the next little while (What do you mean you want a receipt? What's that?!?)

Of course the pdf is dominated by the financial crisis so it's chock full of more interesting articles (see pages 4, 5, 8 & 10).

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Did you hear that it is now illegal in Greece to conduct cash transactions over 1500 Euros?
Like THAT's going to actually happen.

Also, Greece has been stripped of its vote at the council of finance ministers and could have Lisbon Treaty provisions shoved down its throat.

But, once again, where has the money gone? Have the people spent it? Have the people benefited from it and horded it away?

Or, has the usual happened to it - it has gone to some powerful rich guys (who probably aren't even Greek). And will those rich guys be squeezed for the money? Of course not. They are too powerful.

What will happen, as usual, is that the common people will be bled for the debts of others. And that's why they should resist.

By the way - as to the earlier talk about ungovernability - and the inevitable drag that puts on an economy .. it is not necessarily a negative thing. It makes everything harder to get done - that's true, and a well ordered society makes things run smoother - in the smoother society overall productivity can be higher but the benefit does not accrue so evenly. In a society of rule followers cheaters prosper and eventually gain enough power if unchecked to rule. In a society where everyone cheats the advantage of cheating is diminished.

Corruption too, is a component of resilience. Its common practice establishes a black economy where money denominated in Euros is not necessarily the only currency. This parallel economy can actually carry a lot of the slack when the official economy collapses - it's a matter of expanding existing channels versus creating new channels.

It does make getting things done a lot more difficult though, but highly tuned systems are not resilient systems and resilient systems aren't terribly efficient. There is a tradeoff.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Very potentially interesting.

If true then we have some serious rifts being exposed.

 

[Glaucus]

If you thought that police blocked the printing press, I think that's just a bad translation. Here's an easier read of the same event:
Clashes in Athens as Greek PM seeks EU debt help

The Greek parliament approved new spending cuts and taxes Friday aimed at defusing the country's debt crisis, while protesters opposed to the measures fought with police outside. Prime Minister George Papandreou went abroad to seek European leaders' support for his efforts.

Quite childish but typical. They're throwing a little tantrum but will eventually give in. It's hard to say how many of them there are protesting, I wouldn't be surprised if the anarchist movement is trying to fan the flames here as they even attack left-wing union leaders:

Demonstrators attacked the two military guards and their escorting officers, smashing windows and kicking the guard posts. Earlier, leftwing protesters attacked the head of Greece's largest trade union who was addressing the crowd.

GSEE head Yiannis Panagopoulos traded blows with his assailants before being whisked away bloodied and with torn clothes. A union statement condemned the "murderous attack," and said Panagopoulos was out of danger in an Athens hospital.

GSEE and the ADEDY umbrella civil servant union held work stoppages to protest the austerity measures, while hospitals, schools and public transport were closed down. Both unions said they would hold a new nationwide strike and protest march on March 11.

Further violence broke out later Friday in Athens, with masked youths attacking riot police inside the Council of State, Greece's highest administrative court, and trying to break into the Labor Ministry. Rioters also smashed the glass fronts of two banks, two hotels, a mobile phone shop and a fast food restaurant.

I just hope the police decide to clamp down a little harder this time. Flooding the entire down town with tear gas isn't gonna do much, you have to arrest those causing damage. First thing I'd do is get rid of the ridiculous sanctuary laws.

 

[smithy]

This is the price of the euro.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Earlier, leftwing protesters attacked the head of Greece's largest trade union who was addressing the crowd.

I read somewhere recently that trade union leaders in Europe were trying to get their members not to strike (despite many unions passing strike votes).

By the way, how did they know they were leftwing protesters? Did they just have T-shirts that said "Left Wing Protester" or do these guys have files that demonstrate that they have protested for these things over an extended time? Just curious how they know these things.

 

[Glaucus]

By the way, how did they know they were leftwing protesters? Did they just have T-shirts that said "Left Wing Protester" or do these guys have files that demonstrate that they have protested for these things over an extended time? Just curious how they know these things.

Hard to say in this case, but good question. The hammer and sickle are commonly displayed at Greek protests though. That or the KKE (which you'll also find spray painted on every single building) which stands for Komonistiko Kommo Elladas (which I think you can figure out what that means). Not much guess work there I'd say.

However, if it's the anarchists, I'd say they're far right wingers. Problem is both those groups tend to rally together for some reason. I often see reports of Communists and Anarchists rioting together so I can see how they could be lumped in as left wingers. I doubt those involved are smart enough to realize the two groups are polar opposite, I think they just like to cause damage and look for a cause to provide them cover. Suffice it to say Greece has extremists on both ends of the political spectrum but the ones that tend to do most of the damage are the Koukouloforos.

Regardless, one thing is certain, this is an example of a small minority trying to use violence to control the majority. I'd say the root of the problem is that they see themselves as free thinking geniuses and everyone else as a brainwashed moron.

 

[Glaucus]

Not sure if I fully agree with this, but an interesting read non the less: Greece's Weakness Is Its Strength

If you want to learn how to dig yourself out of a deep hole, watch Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. The 57-year-old socialist is urgently seeking some kind of financial backstop from other European governments while trying to placate farmers, labor unions, and civil servants on the one hand and jittery foreign investors on the other. As the son and grandson of past Prime Ministers, Papandreou is the closest thing to royalty in a country that abolished its monarchy in 1974. Yet his regal air hasn't been the least bit compromised by the fragility of Greek finances. His serenity comes from a shrewd understanding of the principles of negotiation: Greece's very weakness lends it strength, because when your back is already to the wall, you can't be pushed any further.

True, if your back is pushed into a wall, you at least have the support of the wall on your side. But by no means does this mean things are looking up for you.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Just wanted to point out, because I think it's been missed so far, - while a socialist is taking all the flack right now, the government that hired Goldman Sachs to help it hide debt and get into the Euro was a right wing government.

 

[Glaucus]

Just wanted to point out, because I think it's been missed so far, - while a socialist is taking all the flack right now, the government that hired Goldman Sachs to help it hide debt and get into the Euro was a right wing government.

That's something I've been thinking about but haven't researched yet. But now that you bring it up it seems to be that PASOK was the party in power at the time, but back then it was Costas Simitis who was the PM.

According to this article the currency swap with Goldman Sachs occurred in 2002. And according to this wiki entry PASOK was in power from 2000 to 2004 (New Democracy took power just in time to enjoy the benefits of the Eufa 2004 victory and the 2004 Olympics). In fact, PASOK had the government since 1993, under the control of George Papandreou's father, Andreas. New Democracy seems to have made things worse though and probably would have done more currency swaps if the EU didn't ban the practice. And honestly, calling ND a right wing party is a bit of stretch, they're just more right wing then PASOK (probably more like our Liberal party). And of course Red would still call them commies. :mrgreen:

What you can say is that it was a socialist who ultimately came clean with the truth and is stuck with cleaning up the mess. ND had the chance but never had the guts to do anything about it. Which is a shame because it was Karamanlis' uncle who played a major role in restoring democracy after the US backed coop/dictatorship was overthrown back in the 70's.

A Greek socialist is cutting public servant wages and raising the age of retirement all while battling the unions on the streets of Athens. I hear it's snowing in hell right now....

 

[Glaucus]

Gov’t options dwindling

Prime Minister George Papandreou chaired a gloomy Cabinet meeting yesterday, examining the debt-ridden government’s dwindling options as visiting officials of the International Monetary Fund reportedly increased pressure for additional austerity measures and thousands of Greeks took to the streets.

According to sources, Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou, who has been in back-to-back meetings with officials from the IMF, the European Commission and the European Central Bank, told his peers that pressure was building on the government to herald new measures. Papaconstantinou said the officials were expecting to see changes in labor relations. It is thought that these changes would lead to a reduction of salaries in the private sector, mirroring cuts that have already been introduced to the public sector.

Opinion in the government is said to be divided about the prudence of more austerity. Several top-ranking members of the Cabinet including Agriculture Minister Katerina Batzeli, Citizens’ Protection Minister Michalis Chrysochoidis and Defense Minister Evangelos Venizelos reportedly oppose more cuts. Batzeli and Venizelos, as well as Labor Minister Andreas Loverdos, Interior Minister Yiannis Ragousis and Economy Minister Louka Katseli reportedly called for the immediate activation of the EU-IMF loans for Greece. Papaconstantinou, however, wants any additional measures to be agreed first before the rescue plan is activated, sources said.

Anger at two waves of salary cuts and tax hikes and fears over the prospect of a new raft of measures brought thousands of protesters out onto the streets of Athens yesterday. A strike by civil servants, whose union ADEDY wants the measures introduced so far to be revoked, shut down public services, schools and left hospitals operating on emergency staff. Members of the Communist Party-affiliated labor union PAME joined a second day of strike action with protesters blockading the port of Piraeus for a second day.

Participation in yesterday’s rallies did not exceed 10,000, smaller than some previous gatherings, but there are fears that anger is growing and that the introduction of additional measures will fuel unrest. ADEDY spokesman Ilias Iliopoulos warned that further demands by the IMF could trigger a “social explosion.”

Things not looking so good right now. Greece could rename itself the Titanic as the story will be about the same. The real question now is which countries is Greece going to drag down with it?

 

[Glaucus]

Things are getting serious:

Three dead as Greece protest turns violent

At least three people have been killed in the Greek capital as protesters set fire to a bank during a general strike over planned austerity measures.

The bodies were found inside the Marfin Bank in Athens. The Greek prime minister said it was a "murderous act".

The protest became violent, with petrol bombs thrown at police who responded with pepper spray and tear gas.

Protesters are angered by spending cuts and tax rises planned in return for a 110bn euro (£95bn) bail-out for Greece.

A police spokesman said the three victims - two women and a man - were among 20 people working in the Marfin bank branch on Stadiou Avenue in central Athens when the petrol bomb was thrown.

Most of the employees managed to escape the fumes as the flames took hold, but the three found their way blocked as they tried to escape to the roof and they suffocated.

I'm curious to see what the effect of this will be. Will the nation be shocked and decide to calm things down and turn against the anarchists? Or will things just escalate out of control?

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Things are getting serious:

Three dead as Greece protest turns violent

I'm curious to see what the effect of this will be. Will the nation be shocked and decide to calm things down and turn against the anarchists? Or will things just escalate out of control?

Is it anarchists or is it a replay of operation Gladio?

 

[Glaucus]

Is it anarchists or is it a replay of operation Gladio?

Gladio? Can't say it's not possible. It was definitely anarchists who threw the match, but were they influenced by secret CIA agents? I'm sure the US would love to see the Euro fail. Greece has made itself vulnerable and some right wing action could be enough to push it over the edge, bringing the Euro down with it. But if that were the case, Gladio would be secretly exploiting the Greek anarchists who are staunchly anti capitalism and anything American. Historically, Gladio had a very anti-communist agenda, but it may have been reformed over the years. It's quote possible that the anarchist leaflets post on the streets of Athens were printed using CIA money. But it's equally possible that they weren't.

Heck, you could also say the entire credit crunch in the US was orchestrated to help push the Euro into an early grave. But that would give too much credit to US leadership.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Is it anarchists or is it a replay of operation Gladio?

Gladio? Can't say it's not possible.

I've been trying to find out the scope and composition of the protests and it's very difficult to see what's going on but from some photos I've seen the violence occurs in the presence of large crowds and they don't seem too upset about it so it may be a populist sentiment. If banks and big businesses are attacked it's probably not a Gladio scenario. Gladio was aimed at causing more hurt to the ordinary people and swinging their support towards the government. Outside forces would probably be happy to have a leftist (ish) government fail in general but "Europe" would prefer the money back.

I'm sure the US would love to see the Euro fail. Greece has made itself vulnerable and some right wing action could be enough to push it over the edge, bringing the Euro down with it.

I've been wondering whether the Goldman hit on Greece was officially sanctioned. I would imagine it was just pure Goldman greed but perhaps now they can parlay it into gentler treatment from the US government. I'm sure the establishment isn't unhappy about it. Destroying the Euro is the best bet for preserving the dollar.

Heck, you could also say the entire credit crunch in the US was orchestrated to help push the Euro into an early grave. But that would give too much credit to US leadership.

Hurting the dollar hurts the dollar, but they did sell an awful lot of garbage to Europe and other parties. I think it's probably just greed but (and giving too much "credit" to Europe) but it wouldn't be too out of line to think that the US leadership did play a part in this. There are many forms of warfare. I think the leadership is smarter and more ruthless than we think, and they have decades to play out these things because they are never in danger of getting voted out - that's the government's problem.

 

[Glaucus]

Is it anarchists or is it a replay of operation Gladio?

Gladio? Can't say it's not possible.

I've been trying to find out the scope and composition of the protests and it's very difficult to see what's going on but from some photos I've seen the violence occurs in the presence of large crowds and they don't seem too upset about it so it may be a populist sentiment.

I think they're just used to it. If we were protesting here in Canada and a bunch of guys wearing masks attacked the police 100 feet from us we'd freak out. But in Greece they know that those masked guys are only gonna attack the police. Still, I did see all kinds of videos too and it is hard to tell the big picture. I did see one video, which of course I can't remember where it was, where you saw a large progression of peaceful demonstrators and a few blocks over the police were engaged in running battles with masked dudes. Here's a video where a peaceful protests marches into the middle of one of those skirmishes and mostly disperses and re-routes, followed by large scale confrontations with the masked dudes.

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fyi, "zougla" means "jungle".

You can see how the masked guys pretty much drew the police into the demonstrators. I think they want to somehow trick the demonstrators into rioting with them, but they seem to want no part of it.

 

[Glaucus]

Here's a video (in Greek, sorry) regarding the fire itself. Some Footage of people getting rescued while protesters march by. It's hard to make out exactly how close the protesters are to the bank, but it seems real close. The first witness interview said she saw them break the window with hammers and asked those inside why they were working today. They told them they shouldn't be working because today was a day of strike. Then they threw the "molotovs", as they call them, into the bank. Someone pleaded with them not to torch the place because people were inside but they replied they didn't care. At the 3:15 mark the guy interviewed sai the first fire fighters came by foot because they were blocked by protesters, only to be pelted by rocks. Later in the clip you can hear them yelling ?? ??? ??????? ("tha sas kapsoume"), which means, we're gonna burn you. Pretty fucked up.

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[metalman]

The EU doesn't have the money to bail out Greece ... and Portugal ... and Spain ... and Italy ... and Ireland ... which is where this is heading. So the EU has to hold Greece to an austerity plan.

Greece is not being given the bailout money up front. Greece's receives its next payment of 8.5 billion EUR, May 19th. If Greece fails to follow through with the promised austerity measures, the EU will stop the next payment/rollover and they will default. Greece will not be able to comply with austerity plans, continued violence will prevent EU/IMF imposed budget cuts.

So Greece will default ... and then exit from the euro zone. Withdrawal from the eurozone allows the Greek government to devalue its currency to make its exports (and tourist industry) competitive and frees the country from the excessively tight EU monetary policy.

Even defaulting on it debt does not help, because Greece has no cash flow. Greece has a primary deficit of over 8%. The country is only taking in enough tax revenue to cover 91% of its spending.

The new Greek currency will be worth a fraction of a Euro. Foreign goods and energy will become far too expensive to buy. The Greeks may keep their government jobs -- they just wont be able to buy anything.

So in the end Greece will end up with an severe austerity plan enforced by inflation, rather than the modest austerity plan the IMF is asking for now.