Tuesday Predictions

metalman

metalman

Active Member
Member
Joined
Mar 31, 2005
Messages
10,232
Reaction score
3,006
FYI: this thread is mainly for these type predictions,
The problem with statements "no President has been elected under <circumstances>"

But, feel free to post real predictions too

If you want to make your own prediction, post who you think will win, and their electoral college total votes, % of popular vote, and which battle ground states the winner carries

270 electoral votes to win

RedBlueNation.jpg


The Battle Ground States: pick a winner for each
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin

I'll make my prediction this evening

uninstall.gif


Gloating rights go to the thread prediction winner, (tie breaker is the battle ground states predictions)
 
redrumloa said:
Hey, it could happen! ;)

E868A_dewey_defeats_truman.jpg
Click to expand...

But then it would be "Zombie Truman wins!", which is only slightly less probable than "Gary Johnson wins!"

The last 3rd party candidate to capture any significant share of the popular vote was Ross Perot in 1992, who captured zero electoral votes. Perot actually won several counties and finished in third place, receiving close to 19 percent of the popular vote, the most won by any 3rd party presidential candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912
 
metalman said:
The last 3rd party candidate to capture any significant share of the popular vote was Ross Perot in 1992, who captured zero electoral votes. Perot actually won several counties and finished in third place, receiving close to 19 percent of the popular vote, the most won by any 3rd party presidential candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912
Click to expand...

You've got to start somewhere. I voted for Perot in 1992. If Gary Johnson gets a good showing in this election, people may take him serious in 2016. That is, if we still have a USA in 2016.
 
metalman said:
The Battle Ground States: pick a winner for each
Minnesota
Click to expand...
Minnesota is in no way a Presidential battle ground state. Neither Presidential candidates spent any significant time here. We got the Veep treatment. -- Minnesota's electorial votes will go to Obama.

Michele Bachmann is a conservative in the most conservative district in the State. She has more money than all the other candidates combined. She's spent almost 10x more cash than her Dem opposition. It'll be close but I pick Bachmann by the skin of her teeth. I think we may see a possible recount here.

Locally, it'll be a mixture. After the last few years of all Republicans in the State Congress I think we'll see Dems take some seats.

Ammendments - we have two
(Which is two too many. Elected officals should their jobs instead of cry in their losses.)
Voter-ID - numbers are close, a few polls show NO. I believe this will be passed.
Same-Sex Marriage outlaw - again numbers are close . I believe this will not be passed.

Actually I think this election was an interesting exercise for Republicans. MN leans Democratic Presidential candidates. I think had the same-sex ban not been pushed forward we might have been a Battle Ground State. Essentially the Same-Sex Marriage outlaw will bring out enough opposition that even if it doesn't pass itself, it'll helped to ensure the State went to Obama. About 70% of us voted last time. I expect a bit higher than that this year. Probably in the 72%-75% range.
 
My electorial vote map

Romney 295
Obama 243

Popular Vote
51% Romney
47% Obama
2% Johnson


The Battle Ground States:
Colorado --Romney
Florida --Romney
Iowa --Romney
Michigan -- Obama
Minnesota -- Obama
Nevada -- Obama
New Hampshire -- Romney
North Carolina -- Romney
Ohio -- Romney
Oregon -- Obama
Pennsylvania -- Obama
Virginia -- Romney
Wisconsin -- Romney
 
Metalman,

I think Iowa will go Obama. The reason I say this is that Supreme Court Justice David Wiggins was 1 of the 9 unanimous votes that said banning gay marriage was against the Iowa constitution. While his counterparts lost their seats last election (3 I believe) he has majority support. This may be an indirect vote on gay rights it's one that gays and their supporters are likely more in this time than they otherwise would be. These same people will vote Obama. I also consider the historical trend that Iowa voted Dem for Pres the last 5 out of 6 elections will repeat itself.
 
Romney is gonna win when pigs start flying and cows start jumping over the moon.


Drats! Oh well, I can always count on the cows.
 
Looks like Obama will take both Florida and Ohio. According to CNN, Obama is only 14 electoral votes from a second term, and Ohio and Florida are still unaccounted.
 
The guy in yellow voted for the winner.

ht_big_bird_votes_kb_121106_wblog.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top