Ukraine/Crimea

[FluffyMcDeath]

Putin polls much better than Obama.

 

[metalman]

Unknown soldiers.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...lk-U-S-mercenary-outfit-deployed-Donetsk.html

they are not yelling "blackwater"
their uniforms and equipment look Russian ( as do the Ukranians )
blackwater (Academi) employees do not wear military uniforms
not sure what the video shows, but the article is Russian propaganda

 

[metalman]

Putin polls much better than Obama.

even Americans think Putin is a better leader than Obama

 

[Glaucus]

they are not yelling "blackwater"
their uniforms and equipment look Russian ( as do the Ukranians )
blackwater (Academi) employees do not wear military uniforms
not sure what the video shows, but the article is Russian propaganda

They typically don't carry Ak47s either.

That guy on the right is holding a gun that looks a lot like this:

EDIT:

Taking a close look, it in fact looks more like a close relative of the AK47, the AK74

These are used by both Ukrainian and Russian special forces, air born, marines and navy. So, they could be anyone from anywhere. But let's just assume they're blackwater because that's what we want to believe.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

But let's just assume they're blackwater because that's what we want to believe.

They aren't a social club and they don't seem to be anybody's army but there they are. Someone has hired security. Who hired them and what for? I don't know. Are they just there to run around and be seen? If so, why? Intimidation? False trail? There could be a number of things going on and it is hard to tell what is more likely. Whoever they were, they weren't popular and they beat a retreat.

Meanwhile pro-Russian demonstrators retake government buildings and Kiev tightens its grip on the city - yay for "self-determination". Won't hold my breath waiting for criticism of the new Kiev government if they resort to violent repression. One person is dead in Pro and anti rally clashes and everyone has their own story about who attacked who. The fog will get thicker.

Speaking of which: rumours of planned attacks - war on March 15. Not actual war, but rumours of provocation. The English is pretty google.

"As previously reported, a group called Anonymous Ukraine has a number of e -mails unearthed , for example, the German -Ukrainian rebels Vitali Klitschko."

Claiming intercepted communications like:

"Igor ," the American wrote in it , " the events come thick and fast in the Crimea. Our friends in Washington expect decisive action by your network. I think it is time to implement the plan , which we recently reviewed . Your task is to cause some problems to the transport hub in the southeast, to provide the neighbors a trap. This will provide for the Pentagon and the Company [ CIA ] favorable conditions for action. Do not waste time , my friend. Sincerely, Jason P. Gresh , U.S. Army. "

and

" Vasil , you must perform an activity in Melitopol soon as possible. There, an air transport brigade is stationed. Our friends cursed [ the Russians ] should one spot . I think you know what I mean. But is wisely and carefully. The brigade is now in combat exercises , that is, the aircraft takes not to harm. There are plenty of broken / old planes , with which you can do everything. The aircraft numbers , you get sent . Remember, it is like a real attack of the Russian Spec - Nas [ Russian Special Forces ] look like. The brigade commander is a smart guy . Details he will not know , but in an emergency you can rely on him / contact him. We warn him. "

It could be real chatter plotting a false flag - make it look like a Russian attack to justify retaliation. It could be a smoke-screen to provide cover for a real Russian attack. It could just be a test of someone's network looking for leakers or a test of someone's "have we got your attention" system. It could be an attempt to draw Russia into protecting these targets either to film them and shout "invasion" or to draw them away from real targets. Or it could be nonsense or publicity seeking. It could even just be an attempt to tie up intelligence resources. Fortunately for me I am not burdened with having to come up with a balance of probabilities for that. Even waiting for tomorrow won't answer the question because the mere fact of a move being made will have precipitated a counter move.

The reliability of ANY information is questionable. There are serious stakes and serious agendas and we aren't innocent bystanders being taken by surprise at developments and suddenly deciding that something needs to be done to "help"
people. Just the idiocy and manipulativeness of our media coverage demonstrates this. Yesterday I was watching the BBC (world? I guess it would have to be) at a cafe. Back to back they had a story about how the Syrian people need our military protection and how any move by Russia into the Crimea to protect Crimean people would be illegal aggression - and they don't bat an eye.

*sigh*

You think I have plenty of time on my hands? I have not nearly enough to actually lay out my full thoughts and why I think those things in a post - partly because it would take me ages, partly because hardly anyone comes here to see it in the first place and partly because it doesn't matter what I write because, of the people who might see it, some won't read it, some can't read it and the rest already know it. This post is already disjointed enough and I have no time to fix it.

There are plenty of agendas here but in the most simple terms, for the two big players, the US agenda is to f*ck Russia and Russia's agenda is to not get f*cked. Simple. We want to take Ukraine away from Russia and plant a big fat NATO base preferably right on top of the Russian base (just to run their nose in it) and basically deny Russia the Black Sea and therefore any influence it may have over the energy corridor to Europe. And Iran is still on the agenda, of course. Lot's of oil needs to be liberated from Iran and moved through that corridor ... for a fee. It's not about people and freedom, it's about money and power and taking it away from thems that have some and giving it to ourselves.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

In the Good corner we have the United States of America. Facing off against them, in the Evil corner we have Adolph Hitler, Saddam is like Hitler, New Hitler Gaddafi, and joining them, Putin emulates Hitler.

P.S. Everything Russia says is propaganda.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Encircling Russia.

that so-called economic partnership that Yanukovych, the elected president of Ukraine did not sign, and that set off the streets - the protests in the streets in November, which led to this violence in and confrontation today, that so-called economic agreement included military clauses which said that Ukraine by signing this so called civilization agreement had to abide by NATO military policy.

But it's really about freedom, right? We just want Ukraine to have all the economic advantages that Greeks have.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

China tells Germany, rather Godfatheresquely, that Germany doesn't want sanctions against Russia.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

Crimea overwhelmingly votes to leave Ukraine and return to Russia. This cannot be allowed to stand because if it does all Russia has to do is float the Crimea economically and the rest of Ukraine will start to feel like they made a mistake as the IMF puts them through austerity.

So, does the US send in the troops? Does the US send in the Ukrainians? Does the US send in the neo-nazis and pretend that it's nothing to do with them? Crimea is a pretty defensible bit of land with regards to troops and tanks, so long as Russia holds the Sea and if they can hold the air. The Russians will be happy to hunker down there and do whatever it takes to make Crimea more successful than Ukraine. Will sanctions do anything at all? Will war do anything other than kill Ukrainians and Crimeans? If Ukraine attacks Crimea because they believe Crimea is Ukraine then will they be killing their own people?

Will the US just shout a lot but play it cool until they have fully established NATO bases in Ukraine and then go hot?

 

[Glaucus]

Funny, I was wondering how you'd react to this referendum. Ya, that's about what I expected.

I don't actually bother to read most of your posts (I read Russian propaganda elsewhere, no need to read your syndication feed as well) so perhaps I'm wrong when I say no one asked me what I think of the Crimean referendum. I personally have no issues with Crimea breaking off, I always support those who wish to separate and there's little doubt that the majority of Crimeans are Russian. So if that's what the majority wants then that's fine and I don't think anyone should interfere. And let's face it, Crimea isn't much of a loss, barely 2 million people in a nation of 45 million isn't gonna be catastrophic to the Ukrainian nation. Quebec exiting Canada would be far more disruptive to Canada and I'd support that too even though it would kill Canada as we know it.

However, having said that, the referendum conducted yesterday in Crimea was a farce. There are a number of reasons why this vote was illegitimate. For starters, we've seen plenty examples of Pro-Russian intimidation. We've seen Russians entering Ukrainian military bases and demanding soldiers change sides on the spot. We can only imagine what's going on with civilians. Then there's referendum itself - no option was given to stay in Ukraine as is or even for Crimea to be it's own independent nation. The only options were to 1) Join Russia or 2) restore the 1992 constitution that made Crimea an autonomous region within Ukraine. That second option might sound reasonable but it's really designed to drive people to option 1. It's quite possible that many Crimeans would want their own nation outside of both Russia and Ukraine, but that's not an option. And of coarse the Ukrainians and the Tatars had no real option, which is probably why they boycotted en mass. Even with a boycott though, the over 90% pro-Russian vote seems rather suspicious to me (to put it mildly). Even more suspicious is the over 80% turn out. It's hard to conceive that the Ukrainian and Tatar Crimeans, which make up about 40% of the overall population, would vote to join Russia. I was wondering if the Russians would publish a realistic result (say, a 60% vote for joining Russia) or a ridiculous result (anything over 70% pro-Russia). I guess they went for totally ridiculous.

Btw, aren't you the one who always opposes separations of this nature? I remember your arguing against that in other threads, perhaps Syria, can't remember now. Funny, here you are now supporting that very thing you argued against. But then again, who ever said dogma leads to rational thinking?

No, I think what the Crimeans should have done is waited a year or so, debated their options and do what's best for them. In my opinion the Crimeans would have been wise to simply go independent as they'd assume the Russian military base contracts and make some good cash for doing nothing. Their entire economy would be based on servicing those bases, and with only 2 million civilians there would be plenty of cash to go around. However now, they're just regular Russians, nothing special about them. Yes, Putin might reward them for now, and Russian tourism will likely spike, but long term they probably won't be ahead. And I'm not even sure Putin will accept them into Russia, Crimea might be just a bargaining chip or it might be used as a forward base for further expansion (quite likely actually). But the thing about Crimea is that it provided Russia with a good amount of leverage over Ukraine and that's about to be lost. Strategically rather stupid. Unless of coarse Putin can use Crimea to initiate military clashes and a full military intervention into Eastern Ukraine. Now that makes more sense.

 

[Glaucus]

When Russia attacked and occupied parts of Georgia in 2008, some of the invaders were based off amphibious assault ships. As we know, Russia took control rather quickly, but it seems they felt they could improve their performance if only they had better, more modern ships to do so with. Unfortunately for Russia, Putin's one-trick-pony economy didn't take manufacturing into account and Russian shipyards are completely incapable of building such a ship in a reasonable amount of time. Yes, Putin is quite the champion when it comes to coercion, manipulation and lies, but when it comes to things that really matter he lays a big goose egg. However, surely all that oil money could help, right? Yes, money can solve many problems it seems and so he contracted French companies to build him his ships, presumably so that he can continue with his plans of rapid invasion and occupation. The 4 Mistral class amphibious assault ships may have been intended for a possible deployment into Crimea, but oops, that happened already. But what's worse is that those 4 ships, at least one of which is already built, are not likely to be handed over to Putin's Navy. What a shame. I guess that just adds more to the "costs".

Bad Romance: France’s $1.7 Billion Warship Deal with Russia Gets New Scrutiny

And really, shame on France for ever making such a deal in the first place. These ships offer little in terms of defense, they are purely offensive ships. Perhaps it's just a sign that France never really considered Russia a true threat and that Putin could be reasoned with. What a stupid mistake.

 

[Robert]

And really, shame on France for ever making such a deal in the first place.

Indeed but among the confederacy of dodgy arms sellers, France are not nearly the worst.
Likewise, among the confederacy of dodgy armed-meddlers in other countries, Russia are not nearly the worst.

 

[Glaucus]

Well that's debatable. But do you really need to be the worst?

 

[Glaucus]

When Kerry warned Russia not to interfere in Ukraine he did so from Kiev. Could that be seen as anything other than a suicide attack on American credibility?

America was interfering in Ukraine all along.

This was a very interesting development at the time and even more so now.

There were a couple of things that caught my attention right away.

First, I found it rather interesting that Edward Snowden is taking refuge in a nation that so blatantly revealed that it does the exact same things that Snowden revealed about the NSA. If you remember, some of Snowdens revelations were that the NSA spies on foreign government officials and it created a bit of political turbulence for the US. Nothing earth shattering, but enough to ratchet up some anti-Americanism amongst some of the allied population.

And second, which I consider to be a lot more interesting and revealing, is that Russia was willing to blow their intelligence gathering cover. That's VERY unusual for an intelligence agency to reveal intercepted conversations between foreign diplomats especially while there's an on going situation. The obvious reason is that once the cover is blown, the targets would be expected to alter how they communicate thus making future eavesdropping harder or impossible. Intelligence agencies tend to really hate that, so this revelation was clearly a well thought out move and probably approved by someone high up. Probably Putin himself. And what was revealed? Some diplomats were talking to some of the Ukrainian opposition leaders and even discussing possible future leaders. If you listen to it, it sounds bad, but you have to also remember that if they were willing to blow their cover they would certainly pick the most damning bits to reveal in such a leak, and well, it really wasn't that horrible. Yes, it appears that they're strategising who would be taking over the government which certainly is damning, but far more damning would have been plans on how to oust the current president or secret plans on supporting the neo-nazis and spreading mayhem and destruction into Crimea or whatever. In fact, in a way this leak undermines Russian propaganda that the US was working with ultra-nationalist neo-nazis as the two clearly decided to keep the more radical members "outside" of the government. Even more interesting is that Nuland never really made a secret of the fact of her direct support of the Maiden Square protesters as she had personally visited them at the square and the Russians openly chastised her for it. On top of that, we also learn that the UN was also being consulted and being involved. So nothing new or evil was revealed and I have a hard time believing they'd sit on a recording with something far more diabolical.

However, there was more to that leak which provided a second prong. You know, the "{bleep} the EU" comment. That is probably the main reason it was leaked and the cover blown. I imagine by this time Russia knew which way the winds were blowing and they hoped that something like this comment would fracture the Western allies, or at least distract them, while Russia made it's own plans. This comment is also interesting as it's clear that the US would rather work with the UN rather with it's own allies in the EU to come to a quick solution to the crisis, which again kinda undermines the whole "NATO interfering" accusation. Working with the UN provides no guarantees that things will work out the way the US wants and also would make it harder to keep things secret. Meaning, there probably were no real secrets revealed here, and quite possibly, the intercepts were on open lines to begin with.

 

[Robert]

I found it rather interesting that Edward Snowden is taking refuge in a nation that so blatantly revealed that it does the exact same things that Snowden revealed about the NSA.

Well, he doesn't have too many other options, does he?

 

[Glaucus]

Well, he doesn't have too many other options, does he?

Not saying he did, it's just funny how things worked out. Although some say he should just go home and have his say in open court which certainly has it's merits.

 

[Glaucus]

An interesting interview on the CBC with Putin's former chief economic adviser.

Former Putin adviser tells all

I sure hope he's wrong. And ya, I know he's part of Cato Institute.

 

[Robert]

Although some say he should just go home and have his say in open court which certainly has it's merits.

Some may very well say that but when politicians and officials from 'home' are openly calling him a traitor and talking about the death penalty, whatever 'merits' you have in mind are vastly outweighed by the 'merit' of keeping himself alive and out of gaol.

 

[Glaucus]

True enough, although traitor is not the same as being charged with treason, which from what I can tell wouldn't apply. He could (or his host nation could on his behalf) probably negotiate a no-death penalty condition. You also got to remember that he faces risks where he is.

 

[FluffyMcDeath]

I kinda saw this coming: Exclusive: RT Anchor Liz Wahl Explains Why She Quit

More stuff that helps explain why she quit.