Robert and Fluffy, I hope you guys are right. I hope there is no troop buildup and no invasion because it will only bring more pain and suffering. But my gut feeling is that the Russians are up to something and it isn't something good.
If there isn't a troop build up yet it is something that the Russians will have to consider at some point. The US are moving forces into the area to capitalize on the change of allegiance of the newly installed government in Kiev. Remember, the people didn't have a chance to vote for the new government and people died in this takeover which, no matter how much you might like it, was not democratic. On the other hand, Crimea voted and no-one died. But if Kiev want to try to take it back by force it may get nasty. Further we have the developing secessionists in the east but first:
I was going to write this last week but it's been a busy one. The next week will be busy too, but here's how I saw it/ see it going.
Russia does not want a war in Europe. Russia especially does not want a war in Ukraine. Russia wants stability in Ukraine one way or another because Russia has a lot of business conducted through Ukraine. If Ukraine blows up then the pipelines are unsecured and every hundred yards along the pipe there'll be a gang demanding a few bucks to "make sure nothing happens". Europe is a big market and Russia doesn't have a buyer that can replace it.
Germany and most of Europe doesn't want a war in their back yards. Like Russia they have seen a war in Europe and know how costly it is. It also kills people too but mostly it's really costly. Like Russia, Germany doesn't want to see the pipelines disrupted and the trade curtailed. Germany has done well in Europe and made out like a bandit from the Euro.
There is a country that made a lot of money and lost almost nothing of any real value in the last two wars in Europe. If they could get European powers to fight each other again it would fill their coffers and remove everyone in Europe from the status of potential rival. Would the European players be so stupid? It's hard to imagine. However, even just chaos in Ukraine would threaten that East to West gas flow and that would debilitate both Russia's ability to gain other currencies and Germany's ability to be competitive. It would also have the added bonus of making Germany dependant on someone else's gas and guess who's got gas.
Ukraine is broke, and has been for years. Russia has been keeping them afloat. The people wanted to get rid of the corruption in their government and now they have a new corrupt government and they have been counted out of governing. Why did we not just wait until the next election to get a new government in Ukraine, an elected one like the one that just got overthrown. It was just a year away but we had to rush it for some reason. Why did we need to lay down the ultimatum to Ukraine to choose between EU and Russia? Russia said they would work with the EU - why force Ukraine to make a choice? And why did Ukraine back out of the deal with Europe and take the Russian deal instead? Because the Russian deal was better. Russia was willing to pay more, forgive more and keep the place afloat.
Putin believes you catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. He doesn't need to go to war. He can just wait. Now the unelected government of Ukraine has signed up with the IMF and the country is going under austerity. The people can riot like Greeks from now on and the new government can shoot them as terrorists and we will no longer care. In fact, the defence brigades taking over the government buildings in the East have already been labelled and lethal force is authorised. Goodbye democracy, hello hypocrisy. We helped the putsch so that we could thwart a deal between Ukraine and Russia to try to fix the economy. Instead we installed the usual bunch of clowns, some guys who were willing to trade their country's wealth for a bit of power. Once the IMF made the loan, fired the debt dart, Ukraine is going to have to pay and pay and pay just like the other places this has been done to. The fact that it was an unelected government that brought in this travesty will help them as little as it helps Italy and as little as it helps Greece.
The (neo) nazis (with their "neo" swastikas etc) were very helpful in toppling the government. A little thug muscle does wanders to keep politicians away from parliament so you can pass the bills you want. But they were a bit embarrassing so there's already been a bit of clean-up. Alexander Muzychko has become dead already. That's the thanks you get for lending a helping hand.
All Putin needs to do (unless someone brings a war to him) is sit tight. Everyone knew they weren't just going to be able to take the big naval base from Russia. They've had it for more than two centuries.The US would really have like to install their navy in that port and have the sailors line up on deck to moon the Russians twice a day. The poor babies didn't manage to get it so they are left to pout. The US, chiefly, and its sycophants will continue to say that the referendum was illegitimate because Crimea was under Russian occupation. This is simply not true. Crimea had an agreement with Russia to allow up to 25000 troops. If having other people's bases in your country means you are under occupation then we all are. Furthermore, the German constitution was written under US occupation. How can we call the German government legitimate? The Iraq constitution was basically written by America and given to Iraq under occupation including such lovely articles like those prohibiting farmers from saving their seed from year to year. Completely legitimate, though, apparently.
The referendum is something the Russians have probably had in their back pocket for just such an occasion, but now they have something that the rest of Ukraine can look at as a comparator. Russia is willing to buy Ukraine back. While the new government was busy carrying out the IMF instructions to cut what little social safety net there is and start selling off public assets, Putin ordered that pensions in Crimea be brought up to Russian levels since Crimea is now part of Russia. That means doubling the pensions. Imagine the rest of Ukraine looking at that and wondering what choice they should have made.
And what Putin is going to do is what he always does. He's going to get on the phone to everyone and he's going to talk business. And he isn't going to fire first - he needs to be the reasonable one. Of course, we've seen how that plays out before. Saddam let the inspectors into his palace and the Bush administration and media said that Saddam was the one who kicked the inspectors out. Russia has something that Saddam never had - nukes. Russia may be able to run out the clock on this one. Meanwhile watch China. Like Russia they are under threat from the US. There is a common interest. Russia has oil and gas and a border with China. China has all of America's money ... and most of their manufacturing.
It will be interesting to see which way Afghanistan (also having elections under US occupation but that's fine) swings in the next few years. Will they turn once again to Russia? Well, I suppose that really depends on whether the Unocal trans-Afghanistan pipeline completes as scheduled in 2017 and whether the US has the Caspian basin locked up by then and whether Pakistan will still be our friend. Man, wouldn't Iran's oil just plug into the Unocal pipe just great if only Iran belonged to the US.
Russia will work with whatever corrupt government runs Ukraine. It's important to keep the pipelines open. The US would not suffer at home if there was a war in Ukraine (except the usual poor slobs, kids of the poverty stricken) and would be up on energy contracts, weapons sales and loans. The US is building its forces in the region but it really needs an excuse to use them. Russia will try to ignore them and not give an excuse no matter how much the Americans try to anger them. America will encourage the Ukraine government to act violently against the protesters in the East (ironic again since the protesters in Kiev were generally treated better than the Occupy guys, if you ignore the sniper who were gunning down protesters and police alike - because that's what governments do to diffuse a situation, right?) I'm afraid that Putin will most likely have to abandon them to their fate so as not to give a cassus belli, but the IMF treatment will make things bad there.
If there are Greek style protests in Ukraine I'm sure we'll hear even less about them than we hear about Greece, and if we do hear about them they will be downplayed and blamed on a small band of trouble makers, and probably on Putin.
