nCoV2019 Pandimec!

How concerned are you?

  • No worse than a typical flu season

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • No worse than previous SARS & MERS outbrake

    Votes: 2 22.2%

  • Pandemic!

    Votes: 4 44.4%

  • Zombie Apocalypse!

    Votes: 1 11.1%

  • Moving to an Isolation bubble

    Votes: 1 11.1%

  • Could be worse, back in my day we had the Spanish Flu & the Black Plague

    Votes: 2 22.2%
  • Total voters
    9
Robert said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1238110096334479364
Click to expand...
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... Well, that escalated quickly. Pretty much life as usual at the start of yesterday, to most every major event cancelled. Michigan schools closed two weeks. (effectively 3 with the spring break)

Now comes the question... How much stuff gets shut down? I work in manufacturing. None of the companies have margins to survive a month long shutdown. And UAW has shutdown clauses that all their people get paid during shutdowns. So a month down, and that could be some MAJOR companies forced into bankruptcy. So they need to keep running for survival. But none of the OEMs have supplies for a month, either. So if any of the big suppliers close up, it might force the OEMs down, anyhow. As recently as two days ago we were fielding calls about picking up work that might get cancelled in China. Now what?
 
ilwrath said:
... Well, that escalated quickly. Pretty much life as usual at the start of yesterday, to most every major event cancelled. Michigan schools closed two weeks. (effectively 3 with the spring break)

Now comes the question... How much stuff gets shut down? I work in manufacturing. None of the companies have margins to survive a month long shutdown. And UAW has shutdown clauses that all their people get paid during shutdowns. So a month down, and that could be some MAJOR companies forced into bankruptcy. So they need to keep running for survival. But none of the OEMs have supplies for a month, either. So if any of the big suppliers close up, it might force the OEMs down, anyhow. As recently as two days ago we were fielding calls about picking up work that might get cancelled in China. Now what?
Click to expand...

This has been like watching a slow moving train wreck, moving so slowly so seems like it could be stopped, but its going to wreck and nothing you can do about it

All Europe will be a like Italy was at the beginning of this week, next week

China shut down 3rd week of January, still not restarted.

The US is 2 weeks behind Europe, thanks to Trumps China travel ban a couple weeks ago

85% of infected have mild symptoms or no symptoms, just spread to others, 15% end up in hospital, hospitals will be swamped like Italy now, China last month

Our best hope, copy what South Korea, Japan, Singapore are doing

There is now a rumored preventive Quercetin & Zinc

Quercetin is one of the suppliments I normally take, so restocked a 90 day supply this morning
 
ilwrath said:
... Well, that escalated quickly. Pretty much life as usual at the start of yesterday, to most every major event cancelled. Michigan schools closed two weeks. (effectively 3 with the spring break)

Now comes the question... How much stuff gets shut down? I work in manufacturing. None of the companies have margins to survive a month long shutdown. And UAW has shutdown clauses that all their people get paid during shutdowns. So a month down, and that could be some MAJOR companies forced into bankruptcy. So they need to keep running for survival. But none of the OEMs have supplies for a month, either. So if any of the big suppliers close up, it might force the OEMs down, anyhow. As recently as two days ago we were fielding calls about picking up work that might get cancelled in China. Now what?
Click to expand...

I was talking about this a couple of weeks back - wondering where the economic plan was. Governments basically need a plan to hibernate the economy so they can bring it back when the thaw comes. Maybe the best plan is to nationalise everything temporarily and then the government can settle accounts with itself and cut whatever loans are needed from the treasury.
 
I'm just looking over the stats at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and especially the cases outside of China.
In S Korea https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/ the death rate in resolved cases is running abut 1 in 10! And that's a country that has things close to under control. They are pretty close to zero growth but before that they were growing an order of magnitude in a couple of weeks. That's about the same amount of time as the average amount of time since infection when death occurs (about 17 days) - and people who are serious or critical have probably had the virus longer so represent a sample from a previous point in the epidemic. I suspect that a percentage of the current milds will progress to become critical over a week or two - which means the criticals now represent a large percentage of the milds from a few weeks back - in Korea it looks to me to be about 10%. In the US, UK & Germany it looks closer to 30% since their growth rate is much higher (an order of magnitude every week to 10 days). I've got a bad feeling that once the dust settles the CFR is going to be 10 to 15% or more depending on how badly the health system gets overloaded.
 
Rather an alarming update on the worldometers.info web site.
Worldometer 2020-03-15 17-30-51.jpeg
Second Coming? Or bad data entry. It's been fixed now.
 
FluffyMcDeath said:
Rather an alarming update on the worldometers.info web site.
View attachment 1842
Second Coming? Or bad data entry. It's been fixed now.
Click to expand...
Another aspect of this that gave me an ironic chuckle was the news, a few weeks ago now, that those looking to heal themselves at Lourdes were banned as the site was now deemed a disease vector.
 
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